Key Takeaways
- President Trump’s support among independents has fallen 17 points since before he took office, with the steepest losses among independents lacking a college degree.
- Declines are evident across age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education groups; older independents (60+) are the only segment with relatively stable support.
- The drop accelerated after major policy events—the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the longest government shutdown, and the Iran‑war‑related ICE crackdowns.
- Regression analyses controlling for party ID, gender, race, education, employment, and age confirm that the erosion is statistically significant and not explained by those covariates.
- By the Iran‑War period (January‑April 2026), both college‑educated and non‑college‑educated independents showed similarly low support (~24‑27%), erasing the earlier education gap.
Summary
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, his standing among independent voters has deteriorated markedly. An analysis of 21 waves of AP‑NORC surveys reveals that overall independent support for Trump slipped from roughly 42 % in the pre‑presidency period (July 2024–January 2025) to about 25 % during the most recent period covering the Iran‑war‑related ICE enforcement crackdowns (January 8–April 20, 2026). This 17‑point decline stands in stark contrast to the relative stability of partisan bases: Republican approval hovered around 75 % and Democratic support remained near 5 % throughout the same timeframe.
To isolate trends among independents, the survey waves were grouped into five substantive periods: the 2024 election and pre‑presidency interval; Trump’s first 100 days in office (March–May 2025); the window when the “One Big Beautiful Bill” was passed (June–August 2025); the era of the longest U.S. government shutdown (September–December 2025); and the final stretch marked by domestic ICE‑enforcement actions and the onset of the Iran war (January–April 2026). Within each block, the proportion of independents who expressed favorable views of Trump was calculated, and regression models were run to test whether the observed shifts persisted after controlling for party identification, gender, race/ethnicity, education, employment status, and age.
The erosion was most pronounced among independents without a college degree. Their support fell from 48 % in the election/pre‑presidency period to just 27 % during the Iran‑war period—a 21‑point drop. College‑educated independents also lost ground, but the decline was milder, slipping from 29 % to 24 % over the same span. Consequently, the earlier education gap—where non‑college independents were more favorable toward Trump than their college‑educated peers—has vanished; both groups now cluster around a quarter‑point level of support.
Race and ethnicity further delineate the trend. Black independents’ backing dropped sharply from 38 % after the election to 17 % during the One Big Beautiful Bill period, a 21‑point loss. Hispanic independents experienced an even steeper early decline: support fell from 46 % to 15 % during the government shutdown period, with a notable 20‑point slip occurring already in Trump’s first 100 days. White independents showed a more modest but still significant reduction, mirroring the overall 17‑point national decline.
Age patterns reveal a generational divide. Independents under 60 have steadily withdrawn approval: the 18‑29 cohort fell from 42 % to 25 %; the 30‑59 bracket showed comparable declines. In contrast, those aged 60 and older maintained relatively steady support, fluctuating only a few points around the mid‑30 % range throughout the study period.
Gender differences were less pronounced but still present. Around 40 % of independent men and women expressed favorable views of Trump in the election/pre‑presidency window; by the Iran‑war period, that figure had fallen to roughly one‑quarter for both sexes, indicating a parallel retreat across gender lines.
Overall, the data suggest that Trump’s second‑term agenda—particularly major legislative actions, prolonged governmental stalemates, and aggressive immigration enforcement coupled with foreign‑policy escalations—has alienated a broad swath of the independent electorate. The losses are not confined to any single demographic slice; they cut across education, race, age, and gender, with the only relatively resilient segment being older independents. The robustness of these findings in multivariate regression models underscores that the decline reflects genuine shifts in voter sentiment rather than artifacts of underlying demographic changes. As the 2026 midterms approach, this erosion of independent support could prove pivotal in shaping electoral outcomes, especially in swing districts where independents often hold the balance of power.