Key Takeaways
- Canada’s population declined by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025, with a loss of almost 77,000 people.
- The decline is attributed to a significant drop in the number of international students, resulting from major policy changes by Ottawa to curb immigration.
- The federal government aims to reduce the number of non-permanent residents to 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.
- The proportion of temporary residents in Canada grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, but has since decreased to 6.8% of the total population.
- All provinces and territories, except Alberta and Nunavut, experienced a decline in population in the third quarter of 2025.
Introduction to Canada’s Population Decline
Canada’s population has experienced a decline for the first time since the early stages of the pandemic, with a 0.2% decrease in the third quarter of 2025. This decline is attributed to a significant drop in the number of international students, resulting from major policy changes by Ottawa to curb immigration. The country’s population now stands at 41,575,585 people, according to new estimates from Statistics Canada. This demographic pattern is in sharp contrast to the pandemic years, when Canada experienced numerous quarters of dramatic population growth due to a large inflow of international students and foreign workers.
Impact of Immigration Policy Changes
The federal government has set a goal of reducing the number of non-permanent residents in Canada to 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. Currently, non-permanent residents make up 6.8% of the total population, compared to 7.3% in the previous quarter. The number of temporary residents in Canada has decreased to approximately 2.85 million as of October 1, compared to slightly more than three million on July 1. The proportion of temporary residents in Canada grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, due to a series of immigration policy changes during the pandemic that incentivized international students to study and stay in Canada.
Decline in International Students
Statscan data shows that there were roughly 73,000 fewer study permit holders in Canada in the third quarter of 2025, a sizable drop that was concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. This decline in international students has contributed significantly to the overall decline in Canada’s population. The federal government’s policy changes, aimed at reducing the number of non-permanent residents, have had a direct impact on the number of international students coming to Canada. This, in turn, has affected the population growth of various provinces, with all provinces and territories, except Alberta and Nunavut, experiencing a decline in population in the third quarter of 2025.
Provincial Population Trends
The population decline in Canada is not uniform across all provinces and territories. Alberta and Nunavut were the only two regions that experienced population growth, with a 0.2% increase each. In contrast, Ontario and British Columbia experienced significant declines in population, largely due to the decrease in international students. The decline in population has significant implications for these provinces, including potential labor market shortages and decreased economic activity. The federal government’s policy changes will likely continue to impact provincial population trends, and it will be important to monitor these changes to understand their effects on the Canadian economy and society.
Conclusion and Future Implications
In conclusion, Canada’s population decline in the third quarter of 2025 is a significant trend that warrants attention. The decline is largely attributed to a decrease in international students, resulting from major policy changes by Ottawa to curb immigration. The federal government’s goal of reducing the number of non-permanent residents to 5% of the total population by the end of 2027 will likely continue to impact population trends in Canada. As the country moves forward, it will be essential to monitor the effects of these policy changes on the population, economy, and society as a whole. The implications of this decline will be far-reaching, and it is crucial to consider the potential consequences for labor markets, economic activity, and community development.