Key Takeaways
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted large-scale military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan from December 29-30, known as Justice Mission 2025.
- The US Department of Defense released the 2025 China Military Power Report, which highlights the PRC’s technological modernization, posture changes toward Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the impacts of widespread purges within the PLA and PRC defense industry.
- Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan voted to begin impeachment proceedings against President William Lai Ching-te, but the efforts are unlikely to succeed due to lack of sufficient votes.
- The PRC is using AI to influence foreign elections, including in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and may use these technologies to influence Taiwan’s 2026 and 2028 elections.
- North Korea conducted two missile launches in late December 2025, emphasizing nuclear force modernization and rejecting South Korean calls for dialogue.
Introduction to Recent Developments
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted large-scale military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan from December 29-30, known as Justice Mission 2025. This exercise was the second of its kind in 2025 and was intended to enhance the PRC’s political and psychological pressure on Taiwan and its allies. The exercise emphasized the use of naval and coast guard assets to enforce a blockade of Taiwan and rehearsed counter-intervention operations. The PRC used the exercises as a coercive signal intended to weaken Taiwanese morale and deter Taiwanese leaders from policies that support Taiwanese sovereignty and self-defense.
China’s Military Modernization
The US Department of Defense released the 2025 China Military Power Report, which highlights the PRC’s technological modernization, posture changes toward Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the impacts of widespread purges within the PLA and PRC defense industry. The report notes that the PRC seeks to produce six additional aircraft carriers by 2035, develop its sixth-generation aircraft, and incorporate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. The PRC is also investing in unmanned systems, AI-based technology, cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, and biotechnology. The report characterizes PLA developments in 2024 as posing a significant threat to the United States, Taiwan, and other Indo-Pacific states.
Cross-Strait Relations
Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan voted to begin impeachment proceedings against President William Lai Ching-te, but the efforts are unlikely to succeed due to lack of sufficient votes. The opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan passed amendments to the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures, which would give local governments a larger share of public revenue. The presidential cabinet announced its refusal to countersign the legislation, leading to the impeachment proceedings. Taiwanese law requires a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Yuan for impeachment motions to be submitted to the Constitutional Court, and then the Constitutional Court must pass the motion with a two-thirds majority for Lai to be removed from office.
PRC’s Influence on Taiwan’s Elections
The PRC is using AI to influence foreign elections, including in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and may use these technologies to influence Taiwan’s 2026 and 2028 elections. A Japanese media outlet reported on leaked documents indicating that the PRC is using AI to influence foreign elections, including in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The PRC company GoLaxy attempted to shift public opinion during foreign elections by creating fictional characters to engage in conversations and spread misinformation. The report suggested that GoLaxy conducted influence efforts in past Hong Kong and Taiwanese elections and could be used in Taiwan’s upcoming elections.
China Coast Guard’s Patrols
The China Coast Guard (CCG) conducted four patrols into waters around Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands in December 2025 with unusual variation in timing and tactics. The CCG also patrolled in Taiwanese-administered waters around Matsu, Wuqiu, Pratas, and Taiwan during the Justice Mission 2025 exercise. The CCG patrols around Taiwanese outlying islands aim to normalize the PRC "law enforcement" presence, erode Taiwanese control, legitimize PRC sovereignty, and facilitate a future blockade or seizure of those islands in the future.
PLA’s Incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ
The PLA conducted 274 sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in December 2025. The PLA increased its incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since President Lai took office in May 2024 to an average of over 300 per month. The PRC uses these incursions to erode Taiwan’s threat awareness and signal displeasure at political developments in Taiwan. The high volume of aerial activity that it has normalized around Taiwan since Lai’s inauguration makes it difficult for Taiwan to detect and promptly respond to real military threats when they appear.
North Korea’s Military Activities
North Korea conducted two missile launches in late December 2025, emphasizing nuclear force modernization and rejecting South Korean calls for dialogue. North Korea test-launched a new high-altitude long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) on December 24 and a "long-range strategic cruise missile" on December 29. North Korea’s development of the new SAM system as a successor to its aging Pongae-5 system would expand its aerial-denial coverage and strengthen its ability to defend against potential air and missile strikes. The long-range strategic cruise missile may allow North Korean missiles to evade ground-based radar detection and complicate US-South Korean detection and interception timelines.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the PRC’s military exercises, technological modernization, and influence on Taiwan’s elections pose a significant threat to Taiwan and the region. The US Department of Defense’s 2025 China Military Power Report highlights the PRC’s growing military capabilities and its increasing assertiveness in the region. North Korea’s military activities, including its missile launches and development of nuclear-powered submarines, also pose a threat to regional stability. The international community must remain vigilant and work together to address these challenges and promote peace and stability in the region.