Key Takeaways
- England and Wales are experiencing their driest July since 1836, with three‑quarters of English land in drought after record‑low rainfall and repeated heatwaves.
- Tom Pearson, a former doctor turned farmer on his family’s 1680s Manor Farm, has adopted regenerative practices (no‑till, reduced chemicals) and is trialling ancient grain varieties such as einkorn and emmer.
- Despite soil‑health improvements, Pearson’s field shows deep cracks from moisture loss, and yields have fallen for three consecutive years, cutting wheat output by roughly 40 % this season.
- The farm’s lower fuel use offsets only part of the financial strain; profit losses persist because extreme weather overwhelms even well‑managed soils.
- Across the UK and EU, farmers face rising input costs from energy‑market shocks (Strait of Hormuz disruption) and need government support for drought‑resistant crops and on‑farm water storage.
- Modelling by the European Investment Bank estimates EU agricultural climate losses at €28 bn yr⁻¹ now, rising to €40 bn by 2050, with about 80 % of risk uninsured; the UK lacks a national crop‑insurance scheme.
- Experts call for better quantification of financial risk, improved data sharing, and payments for public goods like soil health to help farmers adapt.
- Pearson sees peri‑urban farming as an opportunity: selling locally, educating consumers, and turning encroaching housing into a market asset.
- A balanced approach—combining evidence‑based regenerative methods, policy support, risk‑sharing mechanisms, and community engagement—is essential for long‑term farm resilience.
Current Drought Conditions in England and Wales
England and Wales are enduring an exceptional dry spell, with the Met Office recording the driest July since systematic observations began in 1836. Rainfall totals have fallen to barely one‑tenth of the long‑term average across large swaths of the country, and the fifth heatwave of the summer has intensified evaporation. Consequently, roughly three‑quarters of English land is classified as under drought, a condition that stresses crops, reduces soil moisture, and heightens fire risk. The situation marks the third drought in five years and the second consecutive year, prompting the National Drought Group to label it “an exceptionally serious situation” with potentially long‑lasting impacts on agriculture and water resources.
Tom Pearson’s Farm and Personal Background
Tom Pearson manages Manor Farm in Caxton, near Cambridge, a property his family has held since the 1680s. Before returning to the land in 2015, Pearson trained as a doctor in Edinburgh, worked within the NHS, and undertook humanitarian aid overseas. His medical background instilled a habit of testing evidence rather than relying on tradition, a mindset that now drives his farming decisions. Despite lacking formal agricultural training, he has embraced experimental approaches, seeking to blend scientific rigor with stewardship of his ancestral fields.
Adoption of Regenerative and Ancient Grain Practices
Pearson has shifted toward regenerative agriculture, implementing no‑till cultivation and sharply cutting synthetic fertiliser, pesticide, and diesel use. To further boost resilience, he has allocated small plots to ancient wheat varieties—einkorn and emmer—sourced from seed banks in the United States, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the John Innes Centre in Norwich. These species, domesticated roughly 10,000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent, evolved under water‑limited conditions and possess deep root systems that Pearson hopes will tap moisture more effectively than modern cultivars during dry spells.
Observed Soil Cracks and Moisture Loss
The effects of the drought are visible on Pearson’s field: a fissure in the stubble of a recently harvested oat crop is wide enough to insert his fingers. The soil has lost so much moisture that it has torn apart, a sign that even a cover crop planted to protect the ground failed to establish before the early season heat arrived. Pearson notes that, without his decade‑long effort to build soil resilience, the cracks could have been far worse, potentially swallowing his hand and forearm. The visual evidence underscores the severity of moisture deficit despite his conservation measures.
Yield Impacts and Economic Strain
Pearson reports that wheat yields are down about 40 % this season, marking the third consecutive year of reduced harvests. Although his no‑till system halves diesel consumption relative to a conventional farm, the fuel savings have not compensated for the loss in output and revenue. He acknowledges that the farm is “doing the right thing” from a carbon and soil‑biology perspective, yet the extreme weather continues to deliver “fairly epic hits” on profits. The economic pressure illustrates a common dilemma for regenerative farmers: lower input costs can help, but they rarely fully offset yield losses during severe climatic shocks.
Broader Agricultural Challenges Across UK and Europe
The National Farmers’ Union’s Combinable Crops Board chair, Jamie Burrows, highlighted that harvesting more than half of the winter wheat crop before the end of July reflects the difficult growing season faced by arable farmers nationwide. He urged the government to invest in drought‑ and disease‑resistant crop varieties and to streamline planning permissions for on‑farm water storage. Helen Wakeham, chair of the National Drought Group, warned that the recurring drought pattern signals long‑term challenges, emphasizing that even well‑managed farms are vulnerable to the intensity of current climate extremes.
War‑Related Energy and Fertiliser Price Shocks
Compounding the weather stress, global energy and fertiliser markets have been roiled by geopolitical events. Strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in early 2025 disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing spikes in fuel and fertiliser prices just as farmers were seeding their crops. These cost increases arrived shortly before the drought intensified, squeezing margins further. For regenerative practitioners like Pearson, who already minimise chemical inputs, the price surge still raises overall production costs and limits the financial flexibility needed to experiment with adaptive practices.
Limitations of Soil Health Measures
Pearson is candid about the limits of soil‑health interventions: “We’re talking about an extreme weather event that even the best soils might not survive with.” While healthier soils can retain more water and support deeper rooting, they cannot wholly buffer against prolonged, record‑breaking heat and precipitation deficits. This recognition tempers optimism about regenerative agriculture as a panacea and underscores the need for complementary strategies, such as varietal selection and infrastructure for water capture, to enhance resilience under increasingly volatile climates.
EU Agricultural Climate Risk Modelling Findings
A May 2025 study led by insurance risk specialist Rowan Douglas, commissioned by the European Investment Bank and the European Commission, modelled agricultural climate risk across the EU. It found that extreme‑weather losses already average €28 billion (≈US$32 billion) per year, projected to rise to €40 billion (≈US$46 billion) by 2050. In a particularly bad year, losses could reach €60 billion (≈US$70 billion) now or €100 billion (≈US$115 billion) by mid‑century, with EU-wide yields potentially falling by a fifth. Alarmingly, roughly 80 % of this risk remains uninsured, leaving farmers to bear the brunt of financial losses directly.
UK Policy and Insurance Gaps
The United Kingdom, outside the EU and the scope of Douglas’s study, lacks a comprehensive national crop‑insurance programme, exposing its farmers to similar uninsured risk. Pearson’s primary request of policymakers is not merely for higher subsidies but for better knowledge and data—particularly on the nutritional benefits of alternative crops and realistic performance of varieties under drought conditions. Douglas argues that Britain possesses the data infrastructure and institutional capacity to lead in quantifying national agricultural risk, a step that would inform fairer risk‑sharing mechanisms between farmers and the broader beneficiaries of food production.
Peri‑urban Opportunities and Community Connection
Observing new housing developments encroaching on his farm’s periphery, Pearson has begun to view proximity to urban areas as an asset rather than a threat. He is exploring peri‑urban farming models that enable a share of his produce to reach local tables directly, shortening supply chains and fostering consumer awareness. By inviting neighbours to see where their food originates and how climate change shapes its cultivation, Pearson hopes to build community support for sustainable practices and create a market niche that values resilience and traceability.
Conclusion: Path Forward for Farmers
The situation on Tom Pearson’s Manor Farm encapsulates the intertwined challenges of climatic extremes, market volatility, and the transitional pains of adopting regenerative methods. While evidence‑based soil health practices and ancient grain trials offer partial buffers, they cannot fully immunise farms against severe droughts without systemic support. Effective adaptation will likely require a blend of continued on‑farm innovation, government investment in resilient crop varieties and water‑storage infrastructure, improved risk quantification and insurance mechanisms, and stronger links between farmers and urban consumers. Only through such a coordinated approach can agriculture endure the intensifying pressures of a changing climate while preserving livelihoods and food security.