ANC’s Grip on Power Slipping: A Party in Decline

Key Takeaways

• The African National Congress (ANC) is experiencing a decline in membership and voter support, with a 30% drop in membership since 2019 and a 17% drop in voter support between 2019 and 2024.
• The party’s chief whip, Mdumiseni Ntuli, believes that if the ANC becomes a purely rural party, it will be a signal of its final demise.
• The ANC’s midterm report has identified that the party’s branches are in crisis, with most being rural and facing an age problem, with an average branch chairperson age of 49.3 years old.
• The party is gearing up for the 2026 local government election, with Ntuli hoping to at least maintain the party’s current 40% support.
• The ANC is also facing a challenge from the newly formed uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma, which has gained support in KwaZulu-Natal.

Introduction to the ANC’s Decline
The African National Congress (ANC) is facing a significant decline in membership and voter support, according to its midterm report presented at the National General Council (NGC). The report confirms that the party’s decline is not sudden, but rather a slow erosion over many years, starting in 2016. The ANC’s membership numbers have dropped by almost 30% since 2019, from 769,870 to 543,524 in October 2025. The party’s voter support has also decreased, with a 17% drop between 2019 and 2024, leading to the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) with other parties.

The Impact of Rural Dominance
The ANC’s chief whip, Mdumiseni Ntuli, has expressed concern that the party is becoming increasingly rural, with most of its functional branches now concentrated in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Northern Cape. Ntuli believes that if the ANC becomes a purely rural party, it will be a signal of its final demise. This shift towards rural dominance is a significant change for the party, which has traditionally drawn support from urban areas. The implications of this shift are still unclear, but it is likely to have a significant impact on the party’s ability to connect with urban voters and to shape policy that reflects the needs of urban communities.

The Challenge of the uMkhonto Wesizwe Party
The ANC is also facing a challenge from the newly formed uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma. The MK party has gained support in KwaZulu-Natal, traditionally one of the ANC’s strongest voting blocs. Ntuli has expressed concern that the ANC is not doing enough to exploit the weaknesses of the MK party, which has been criticized for its lack of democratic processes and its reliance on Zuma’s leadership. The MK party has not held any elective conferences and continues to have a revolving door of leadership, with repeated reshuffles of senior leaders.

The Crisis in ANC Branches
The ANC’s midterm report has identified that the party’s branches are in crisis, with most being rural and facing an age problem. The average branch chairperson is 49.3 years old, with women slightly older than men, and very few young members lead branches. This is a significant concern for the party, as its branches are the primary means of interacting with the population and exercising effective leadership. Ntuli has expressed concern about the state of the party’s branches, stating that without functional branches, the ANC has no effective means of leadership.

The Road to the 2026 Local Government Election
The ANC is gearing up for the 2026 local government election, with Ntuli hoping to at least maintain the party’s current 40% support. Ntuli has expressed concern about the party’s ability to defend its current support, stating that the party must start by defending what it has before trying to increase its support. The election will be a significant test for the party, which is facing challenges from the MK party and other opposition parties.

Succession and the Future of the ANC
The ANC is also facing a challenge in terms of succession, with President Cyril Ramaphosa concluding his second term as head of the party in 2027. Ntuli has expressed concern about the party’s ability to succeed in the local government election, stating that if the party performs poorly, it will be difficult to justify re-election in 2027. The party’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, has insisted that the NGC was not the place to discuss succession plans, but it is likely to be a key talking point ahead of the 2027 elective conference.

The State of Parliament
The ANC’s midterm report has also painted a bleak picture of Parliament, with only 33% of former MPs returning and only 20% of whips returning. The party has also suffered a knock, with no longer having overwhelming majorities in committees nor as many committee chairs. Ntuli has expressed concern about the challenges in Parliament, stating that the party must work to find solutions rather than disrupt the legislative process. The party is facing a challenge in terms of its ability to shape policy and to hold the government to account, and it must work to rebuild its relationships with other parties and to find common ground.