Key Takeaways
- The ANC has not yet finalized its mayoral candidates for any of South Africa’s eight metros, while the DA, EFF, ActionSA and the MK Party have already announced contenders.
- Ipsos polling (June‑July, 3,600 respondents) shows tight ANC‑DA races in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City; the DA leads in Cape Town (≈46%); the MK Party commands 55% support in eThekwini.
- ActionSA consistently records double‑digit support in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, potentially influencing coalition outcomes.
- Fragmentation is high: Johannesburg (75 parties), Tshwane (70), Ekurhuleni (67) and eThekwini (69) contest the proportional‑representation ballot, making outright majorities unlikely in most metros.
- Coalition negotiations will be crucial; smaller parties could become the “missing link” if larger parties fail to secure a majority, especially in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and eThekwini.
Overview of the Municipal Election Landscape
With just over a month remaining before the November 4 local elections, opposition parties have unveiled their mayoral candidates for Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and eThekwini, while the African National Congress (ANC) remains undecided. The Democratic Alliance (DA), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), ActionSA and the newly prominent uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) have all named contenders, giving voters clear faces to associate with each party’s platform. In contrast, the ANC has only released a list of 42 potential candidates announced in August, leaving final selections to national officials and creating uncertainty about its mayoral line‑up in key battlegrounds.
ANC’s Candidate Selection Process
The ANC’s unusually public selection process has produced a broad pool of 42 hopefuls, reflecting internal deliberations and regional lobbying. Party officials have yet to convert this list into definitive slates for any metro, meaning the ANC will enter the final campaign stretch with unresolved candidacies in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini and other municipalities. This delay contrasts with the opposition’s early announcements and may affect voter perception of the ANC’s readiness and cohesion heading into the polls.
Ipsos Polling Methodology and Caveats
The Ipsos findings cited throughout the analysis are based on face‑to‑face interviews with 3,600 South Africans conducted in June and July 2024. The polling firm cautions that the figures represent a snapshot of voter sentiment at that time and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of the November election outcome. Sample sizes for certain metros—particularly Mangaung and Buffalo City—are relatively small, prompting additional warnings about the reliability of those specific results.
Johannesburg: A Neck‑and‑Neck Contest
In Johannesburg, the ANC and DA remain closely matched, with ActionSA also recording double‑digit support in the Ipsos survey. Political analyst Dr Siyabonga Ntombela notes that Helen Zille’s DA mayoral candidacy has helped the party make inroads, placing it “neck and neck” against the ANC. A Polymarket prediction market from early October showed Zille at 67.5 % chance of winning the mayoralty, followed by Frank Chikane (14.7 %), Lukhona Mnguni (7.4 %), Herman Mashaba (4 %), Loyiso Masuku (3.9 %) and Dada Morero (1.5 %). With 75 parties contesting the proportional‑representation ballot, Professor Theo Neethling of the University of the Free State argues that no single party can assume an outright majority, a pattern that has persisted since 2016 in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni.
Tshwane: DA Favoured but ActionSA Present
Ntombela describes the DA as the “favourite” in Tshwane, citing various polls that place the party’s support between 31 % and 43 %. He suggests the DA could convert a near‑tie into a clear lead as campaigning intensifies. Meanwhile, UKZN analyst Zakhele Ndlovu agrees that the DA is likely to grow its support in both Johannesburg and Tshwane. Ipsos also recorded double‑digit backing for ActionSA in Tshwane, indicating that the party could influence coalition arithmetic even if it does not win the mayoral seat outright.
Ekurhuleni: Uncertain ANC‑DA Battle with Third‑Party Influence
Ekurhuleni presents a similarly opaque picture, with the ANC and DA locked in a tight contest and ActionSA again showing double‑digit support. Ntombela remarks that it is unclear which of the two major parties will emerge victorious, but ActionSA’s strength is likely to bolster DA votes in any coalition talks. Ndlovu adds that the MK Party could also make gains in Ekurhuleni, introducing another variable into the mix. Neethling reiterates that Ekurhuleni is among the metros where no party can take an outright majority for granted, underscoring the prevailing fragmentation.
eThekwini: MK Party’s Surge and Coalition Imperatives
The political landscape in eThekwini diverges sharply from other metros, with Ipsos recording 55 % support for the MK Party among voters who selected a party. This marks a dramatic reversal from the 2021 local election, when the ANC secured 42.02 % of the vote, the DA 26.62 % and the EFF 10.48 %. Ntombela observes that while MK will enjoy the “lion’s share,” it will likely need one or two smaller parties to achieve a workable majority, making an outright majority improbable. He notes that the ANC’s historic dominance in eThekwini has been overturned, positioning MK as the current frontrunner. Ndlovu warns that MK’s ability to translate provincial strength into mayoral victories will hinge on post‑election negotiations, and the metro’s 69 parties on the PR ballot further complicate coalition building.
Cape Town: DA’s Stronghold with Potential for Majority
Cape Town remains the DA’s strongest bastion in the Ipsos poll, with the party at 46 % support. Ipsos suggests the DA could potentially exceed 50 % as campaigning continues, a threshold that would allow it to govern alone. Ntombela characterizes the DA’s position as “comfortable,” asserting that chances of a coalition government are slim to none. He does, however, anticipate a marginal loss of ground for the DA as the election approaches, reflecting the usual volatility of voter sentiment in the final weeks.
Nelson Mandela Bay: ANC Holds a Slim Edge
Nelson Mandela Bay is identified as another metro where the ANC and DA are locked in a competitive race, although Ipsos urges caution due to a relatively small sample size. Ntombela gives the ANC a slight edge, reasoning that the party’s provincial election performance provides a basis for this inference, while acknowledging that the DA trails closely behind. He also includes Nelson Mandela Bay among the three metros—alongside Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni—where he expects the most significant competition in the upcoming vote.
Mangaung: DA Ahead but Gap May Narrow
In Mangaung, Ipsos places the DA ahead of the ANC, yet Ntombela warns that the gap could close before election day. He suggests the DA might overtake an ANC that was far ahead in 2021, though he stresses that polling uncertainty in this metro means the results should be treated carefully. The small sample size again prompts Ipsos to advise readers not to over‑interpret the Mangaung figures.
Buffalo City: EFF’s Strongest Showing
Buffalo City stands out for the EFF’s 27 % support, the party’s highest result among the metros surveyed, while the ANC and DA remain the other main contenders. Ntombela labels the EFF the strongest party in the metro, reflecting its growing influence in the region. As with several other areas, Ipsos cautions that the Buffalo City findings should be treated carefully due to the limited sample size, urging readers to view the data as indicative rather than definitive.
Smaller Parties, Fragmentation and Coalition Dynamics
Analysts emphasize that the high number of parties contesting the proportional‑representation ballot—75 in Johannesburg, 70 in Tshwane, 67 in Ekurhuleni and 69 in eThekwini—creates a fragmented political environment where outright majorities are rare. Professor Neethling argues that a party holding a modest number of seats could become the decisive “missing link” in a coalition if larger parties fail to secure a majority on their own. He notes that predicting the exact composition and stability of post‑election coalitions is challenging because the viable combinations only become clear after the final seat allocation is known. Consequently, Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and eThekwini are singled out as the metros where coalition negotiations will be especially consequential, as they will determine not only which party leads but also which grouping can assemble a workable majority to govern effectively.
Implications for the November Election
Overall, the data point to a highly contested municipal landscape in which the ANC’s delayed candidate finalisation, the DA’s entrenched strengths in Cape Town and Tshwane, the MK Party’s surge in eThekwini, and the persistent double‑digit influence of ActionSA and the EFF will shape both the mayoral outcomes and the ensuing coalition politics. Voters will face a ballot marked by considerable choice, while parties will need to navigate complex negotiation tables to convert electoral support into stable governance. The final weeks of campaigning will likely see intensified efforts to woo undecided voters and to secure pre‑election agreements that could ease post‑election coalition building. As the polls close on November 4, the true test will be whether any party can translate its polling advantage into a mandate strong enough to govern alone, or whether the era of coalition metros will deepen further across South Africa’s urban centres.