Key Takeaways
- The New Zealand general election will be held on November 7, with the economy and cost of living expected to be major issues.
- The National party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, will face a challenging campaign to secure a second term.
- The Labour party, led by Chris Hipkins, is well-positioned to take advantage of the National party’s weaknesses, particularly on the domestic economy front.
- The election will be contested under the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 120 seats in parliament up for grabs.
- The outcome of the election will depend on the ability of the major parties to negotiate with minor parties to form a majority government.
Introduction to the Election
The New Zealand general election is scheduled to take place on November 7, marking the beginning of a campaign cycle that is expected to be one of the most contested in years. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the election date, stating that the National party would continue its agenda to "fix the basics and build the future." Luxon emphasized the importance of providing stable and strong government in a volatile and uncertain world, with a focus on a strong economy, responsible spending, lower taxes, and more opportunities for individuals and families.
The Economy and Cost of Living
The economy and cost of living are expected to be high on the agenda for the two major parties, with these issues consistently cited as top concerns facing New Zealanders. The Ipsos New Zealand issues monitor has identified these issues as key areas of concern, and it is likely that they will play a significant role in the election campaign. The National party has implemented sweeping policy changes since taking office, including reforms to public services, infrastructure, and environmental regulations, with the goal of rebooting the economy and driving overseas investment. However, many of these policies have been met with controversy, and it remains to be seen how they will be received by voters.
The Challenge for the National Party
The National party faces a challenging road to securing a second term, with polling over the past year indicating that the party’s support has been lukewarm. The left bloc, comprising Labour, the Green party, and Te Pāti Māori, has frequently polled close to or higher than the sitting government. Additionally, Luxon’s favourability as leader has been consistently low, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins regularly sitting ahead in the preferred prime minister stakes. According to Dr. Claire Robinson, a political scientist, the last 15 public opinion polls show Labour has averaged 2% more support over National, indicating that the party is in a strong position to take advantage of the National party’s weaknesses.
The Labour Party’s Strategy
The Labour party, led by Chris Hipkins, is well-positioned to take advantage of the National party’s weaknesses, particularly on the domestic economy front. Hipkins has stated that his party is "fired up and ready to go" and promised voters that Labour is "refreshed" with new ideas and faces. The party will focus on employment, affordable healthcare, housing, and tackling the cost of living, with Hipkins emphasizing that the sooner New Zealand gets rid of the current government, the sooner the country can move forward. According to Dr. Robinson, Hipkins will need to do very little to win the election, as it is "National’s game to lose, not Labour’s to win." Instead, Labour can focus on hammering the National party on the domestic economy front, highlighting issues such as wages, jobs, and house prices.
The Election System and Outcome
New Zealand operates under a mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 120 seats in parliament up for grabs. The two major parties, National and Labour, will need to negotiate with minor parties to form a majority government. The outcome of the election will depend on the ability of the major parties to secure the support of minor parties, as well as their ability to connect with voters on key issues such as the economy and cost of living. With the election campaign now underway, it remains to be seen how the parties will perform and which party will ultimately form the next government.
