Key Takeaways:
- A leadership challenge in New Zealand politics can be triggered by a member of the party caucus calling for a no-confidence vote in its leader.
- The process of a leadership challenge can be complex and involves building up votes, both in the media and behind the scenes at Parliament.
- Several New Zealand prime ministers have resigned after facing leadership challenges, including Jenny Shipley, Sir Geoffrey Palmer, and David Lange.
- Parties can roll their leaders due to disagreements over policy, and polling/public sentiment can be a major driver of leadership changes.
- The public does not get to choose what happens inside the Beehive after Election Day, but how they may react to leadership changes is an important consideration.
Introduction to Leadership Challenges
The world of New Zealand politics is abuzz with speculation about the future of National and Labour party leaders. As pundits attempt to predict the outcome of potential leadership challenges, it’s essential to understand the process of how these challenges work. A leadership challenge can be triggered by a member of the party caucus calling for a no-confidence vote in its leader. If the party is in government, this could mean a change in prime minister if the vote succeeds. The National Party, for instance, follows a straightforward majority rule vote by its MPs to decide on a new leader.
The Process of a Leadership Challenge
The process of a leadership challenge can be complex and involves building up votes, both in the media and behind the scenes at Parliament. As one expert describes, it’s "incredibly Shakespearean" – covert, behind the scenes, and full of speculation. A successful leadership challenge is all about building up the votes, and this process can play out in the media, with columns and hot takes speculating about the prospects of potential leaders. However, it also plays out behind the scenes at Parliament, where party whips and allies may present the prime minister with a list of votes, indicating that they no longer have the support of the caucus.
History of Leadership Challenges
New Zealand history is filled with dramatic moments when confidence in a party leader has dropped, and a leadership challenge is held. Several prime ministers have resigned after facing leadership challenges, including Jenny Shipley, who mounted a challenge against the late Prime Minister Jim Bolger in 1997. Other prime ministers, such as Sir Geoffrey Palmer and David Lange, have also stepped down after facing challenges to their leadership. In some cases, prime ministers have resigned after losing an election, like Helen Clark, or for other reasons, like Sir John Key and Dame Jacinda Ardern.
Party Rules and Leadership Challenges
Different parties have different rules when it comes to leadership challenges. The Labour Party, for instance, allows its caucus to directly vote for its new leaders, but if it doesn’t make a decision within seven days, it gets turned over to their electoral college – a combination of the caucus, party members, and unions. The Green Party allows leadership challenges to be put forward by party delegates, while the National Party follows a straightforward majority rule vote by its MPs. These rules can lead to clashing priorities, as seen in the 2014 Labour Party leadership election, where the MPs’ preferred candidate was not the person who became the party leader.
Triggers for Leadership Changes
Parties can roll their leaders due to disagreements over policy, and polling/public sentiment can be a major driver of leadership changes. However, it’s not just about the polls. A leadership change can occur for all sorts of reasons, including institutional filters, such as the party organisation, caucus, and cabinet. While being removed as leader could be seen as humiliating, leaders often have a fair bit of leverage in the process. They may say, "Okay, what’s in the best interest of the party in this situation?" and negotiate their resignation, including tapping their preferred successor.
Coalition Governments and Leadership Challenges
When the government is a coalition, the nature of cooperation requires careful consideration. If the leader of the major party is rolled, it can create issues for the coalition partners. The current three-headed Coalition of NZ First, ACT, and the National Party could also create problems if Luxon were replaced. Hypothetically, if the National Party were to seriously entertain removing Luxon as party leader, the fact that he is also the prime minister gives the ACT and NZF parties a stake in the issue as well.
Public Perception and Leadership Challenges
The public doesn’t get to choose what happens inside the Beehive after Election Day, but how they may react to leadership changes is an important consideration. The optics of these things are crucial, and the party must consider how the public may perceive a leadership change. For instance, Australia’s series of leadership spills created a "decade of disposable prime ministers," which may have contributed to the public’s perception of the party as unstable. Any time a prime minister has resigned mid-term in the past 50 years, their party has gone on to lose the next general election.
Conclusion
In conclusion, leadership challenges in New Zealand politics can be complex and involve a range of factors, including party rules, polling, and public sentiment. While the public doesn’t get to choose what happens inside the Beehive, their perception of a leadership change is crucial. As one expert notes, a very well-executed leadership spill can be a surprise, and it’s essential to consider the Shakespearean nature of these challenges – covert, behind the scenes, and full of speculation. Ultimately, it’s what happens inside party caucuses that matters, and the media’s speculation about leadership challenges is just that – speculation.