Key Takeaways
- New Zealand First has seen a significant increase in support, rising to nearly 12 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.
- The coalition parties have extended their lead over the left bloc, with Labour remaining the highest polling party.
- Labour, National, and New Zealand First have all seen increases in support, while ACT, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori have all taken dips.
- The poll suggests that the coalition would have 63 seats, while the opposition would have 57.
Introduction to the Latest Poll Results
The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll has revealed some interesting shifts in the New Zealand political landscape. New Zealand First, led by Winston Peters, has seen a significant increase in support, rising to nearly 12 percent, its highest result since the survey launched in early 2021. This surge in support has come as a surprise to many, and it will be interesting to see how this affects the upcoming election. The coalition parties, consisting of Labour, National, and New Zealand First, have extended their lead over the left bloc, with Labour remaining the highest polling party.
Breakdown of the Poll Results
The poll results show that Labour is currently at 34.4 percent, up 2.8 points from the previous poll in December, which would give them 43 seats. National is at 31.5 percent, up 1.5 points, which would give them 39 seats. New Zealand First, as mentioned earlier, is at 11.9 percent, up 3.8 points, which would give them 15 seats. The Greens, on the other hand, have taken a dip, down 3.1 points to 7.7 percent, which would give them 10 seats. ACT has also seen a decrease, down 1.9 points to 7.0 percent, which would give them 9 seats. Te Pāti Māori has taken a small dip, down 0.1 points to 3.0 percent, which would give them 4 seats.
Preferred Prime Minister and Net Country Direction
The poll also asked respondents about their preferred Prime Minister, with Christopher Luxon still ahead of Chris Hipkins, on 19.5 percent, down 0.2 points, while Hipkins is on 18.0 percent, up 0.2 points. Winston Peters is on 9.7 percent, up 1.2 points, while David Seymour is on 7.1 percent, up 1.1 points, and Chlöe Swarbrick is on 5.5 percent, down 2.1 points. The net country direction, or ‘right track, wrong track,’ was on -16.4 percent, a drop of 9.8 points, with 32.6 percent of people saying the country was heading in the right direction, down 5.7 points, and 49.0 percent believing the country is heading in the wrong direction, up 4.1 points.
Methodology and Limitations of the Poll
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union, and is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders, weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone and online between Wednesday 14 January and Sunday 18 January 2026, and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. It’s worth noting that Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, but it resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body in 2024. As with any poll, the results are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
Implications of the Poll Results
The implications of the poll results are significant, with the coalition parties extending their lead over the left bloc. The increase in support for New Zealand First is particularly notable, and it will be interesting to see how this affects the upcoming election. The poll results also suggest that the country is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the direction it is heading, with a significant drop in the net country direction. This could have implications for the government’s popularity and its ability to implement its policies. Overall, the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll provides a fascinating insight into the current state of New Zealand politics, and it will be interesting to see how the parties respond to the results in the lead-up to the election.
