Key Takeaways
- Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 between July and October, driven mainly by limits on immigration
- The drop was primarily due to a decline in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers
- The government aims to restrict temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027
- The population decrease is a sharp change from 2022, when the population grew by over a million people
- The government is seeking to cut targets for new temporary residents, with a goal of 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028
Introduction to Canada’s Population Drop
Canada’s population has experienced a significant drop, with a decrease of 76,068 people between July and October. This contraction is primarily driven by limits on immigration, according to the federal statistics agency, Statistics Canada. The drop is attributed to a decline in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers. This change is a significant shift from 2022, when the population grew by over a million people, largely due to efforts to recruit immigrants to address labor shortages.
Government Goals and Immigration Policies
The Canadian government has set a goal to restrict temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne stated that the government aims to "take back control over our immigration system and find a better balance between our capacity to welcome people and the number of people who want to come to the country." The government’s efforts to limit immigration are a response to concerns about the pressure on housing, social services, and youth unemployment rates. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to welcome half a million immigrants a year by 2025 has been revised, with the current government seeking to cut targets for new temporary residents.
Economic Implications and Population Trends
The population drop is the sharpest quarter-over-quarter decline on record, dating back to the 1940s, according to Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic. Kavcic noted that "a major population adjustment is well underway, and it remains one of the biggest economic stories in Canada." The decline in non-permanent residents has significant implications for the economy, as these individuals contribute to the workforce and pay taxes. The provinces of Ontario and British Columbia saw the largest drops in population, while Alberta and the territory of Nunavut experienced population growth.
Statistics and Demographic Changes
According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary numbers, the country’s population shrank by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025, the first decline since the Covid pandemic in 2020. The drop in non-permanent residents was the largest seen since comparable records began in 1971. In October, there were over 2.8 million non-permanent residents in Canada, accounting for approximately 6.8% of the total population. These demographic changes will likely have significant implications for the country’s economic and social landscape.
Provincial Variations and Future Outlook
The population decrease varied across provinces, with Ontario and British Columbia experiencing the largest drops. In contrast, Alberta and the territory of Nunavut saw population growth. The government’s efforts to limit immigration and restrict temporary residents will likely continue to shape the country’s population trends in the coming years. As the government seeks to achieve its goal of restricting temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027, it will be essential to monitor the economic and social implications of these policies. The future outlook for Canada’s population will depend on the government’s ability to balance its immigration system with the needs of the economy and society.