Key Takeaways
- Millennials now prefer One Nation over Labor (30 % vs 28 %) in the Redbridge poll, although One Nation’s primary‑vote share remains modest among Gen Z.
- Only 6 % of Gen Z respondents said they noticed “a great deal” about the federal budget; 47 % noticed very little and 14 % noticed nothing at all.
- Across all age groups the budget is viewed broadly negatively, with many voters believing it will harm both the nation and themselves personally.
- The budget’s housing measures—changes to negative gearing and the capital‑gains‑tax discount—are intended to help 75,000 first‑home buyers enter the market over the next decade.
- Treasury modelling shows home ownership has fallen by 3 % (about 280,000 homes) since the Coalition’s 50 % CGT discount was introduced in 1999, a decline that hits young people hardest.
- One Nation has surged to become the country’s most popular party, polling 31 % of the primary vote and positioned to win dozens of seats if an election were held today.
- Pauline Hanson, One Nation’s leader, hints at a possible run for the House of Representatives and presents herself as a viable prime‑ministerial candidate.
- While Anthony Albanese leads Hanson nationally as preferred PM, Gen X voters favor Hanson, revealing One Nation’s strongest base in that cohort.
- Labor’s budget rollout has failed to resonate with younger voters, fueling anti‑establishment sentiment and boosting One Nation’s appeal; Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil defend the measures as needed to tackle an aging population, productivity woes, and housing unaffordability, but acknowledge the political challenge ahead.
Poll Results Show Millennials Shift to One Nation
The Redbridge survey released on Sunday night reveals a striking development among millennials: One Nation now out‑polls Labor, capturing 30 % of this cohort’s support compared to Labor’s 28 %. Although One Nation’s overall primary‑vote share remains modest at 10 % among Gen Z voters, the shift among millennials signals a growing disaffection with the incumbent government. The poll’s director, Tony Barry—a former Liberal Party strategist—warned that those who are aware of the budget tend to dislike it, suggesting that Labor’s fiscal package is inadvertently amplifying anti‑establishment feelings and bolstering One Nation’s appeal.
Gen Z’s Low Awareness of the Budget
When it comes to Generation Z, awareness of the federal budget is strikingly low. Only 6 % of Gen Z respondents reported that they had noticed “a great deal” about the budget, while a substantial 47 % said they had noticed “very little,” and another 14 % claimed they had noticed nothing at all. This lack of engagement means that many young Australians are forming opinions based on limited information or broader cultural narratives rather than the specifics of the government’s fiscal proposals. Consequently, any attempt by Labor to win over this demographic through budget‑centric messaging faces a steep uphill battle.
Broadly Negative Perceptions Across Demographics
Across all age groups, the budget is viewed broadly negatively. The Redbridge poll found a plurality of voters believe the fiscal plan will be detrimental both to the country as a whole and to their personal financial situations. Even the youngest cohort, which tends to be more optimistic, shows signs of concern: 58 % of Gen Z respondents said they think Australia is heading in the wrong direction. This pervasive pessimism suggests that the budget’s messaging has failed to reassure voters about its long‑term benefits, instead feeding a sense of uncertainty and dissatisfaction.
Budget’s Housing Focus and Intended Impact
Labor designed the budget with intergenerational equity in mind, placing a strong emphasis on housing affordability. The centerpiece of this effort is a pair of tax reforms: limiting negative gearing for property investors and reducing the capital‑gains‑tax discount from 50 % to a lower rate. Treasury officials argue that these changes will free up investment channels and enable approximately 75,000 first‑home buyers to enter the market over the next decade. Treasurer Jim Chalmers framed the measures as a direct response to years of Coalition policy that, he claims, locked hardworking Australians out of home ownership.
Evidence of Declining Home Ownership
Supporting the government’s narrative, Treasury modelling released over the weekend indicates that home ownership has fallen by 3 %—equivalent to about 280,000 homes—since the Coalition introduced the 50 % capital‑gains‑tax discount in 1999. The decline has been most acute among younger Australians, who have struggled to save for deposits amid rising property prices and stagnant wage growth. By highlighting this trend, Labor aims to justify its tax adjustments as necessary corrections to a market that has increasingly favored investors over owner‑occupiers.
One Nation’s Rise to Top Spot
While Labor’s budget struggles to gain traction, One Nation has capitalized on the discontent. The same Redbridge survey shows the party now commanding 31 % of the primary vote, putting it ahead of both Labor (28 %) and the Coalition (20 %). If a federal election were held today, One Nation would be positioned to win dozens of seats and potentially become the official opposition. This surge reflects a broader appetite for change and a perception that mainstream parties have failed to address the economic anxieties of many voters.
Pauline Hanson’s Leadership and Ambitions
Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, has seized the moment to elevate her political profile. In interviews she has not ruled out running for a seat in the House of Representatives at the next election, noting that, by convention, the prime minister must be a member of the lower house. When asked whether she aspires to the premiership, Hanson replied that she would not “knock the job” because she believes she has the ability to perform it. She framed One Nation’s recent success—citing the historic Farrer by‑election victory—as evidence that the public’s frustration extends beyond any single party and demands a fresh approach.
Generational Divide in Preferred Prime Minister
Nationally, Anthony Albanese maintains a six‑point lead over Pauline Hanson as the preferred prime minister. However, the generational breakdown reveals a stark divide: among Gen X voters, Hanson leads with 30 % support, compared to 27 % for Albanese and 14 % for Angus Taylor. This indicates that One Nation’s strongest base lies within the middle‑aged cohort, which may be feeling the pinch of housing costs, stagnant wages, and concerns about economic security. The split underscores the challenge Labor faces in presenting a unifying vision that resonates across age groups.
Labor’s Defense and Political Challenges
In response to the criticism, Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil have defended the budget as essential for tackling Australia’s structural challenges, including an aging population, productivity shortcomings, and the growing inability of young people to afford a home. They argue that the tax reforms are a measured step toward rebalancing the housing market and that the government remains committed to intergenerational fairness. Nonetheless, the polling data make clear that Labor has lost the conversation with key demographics, especially younger voters, and must rebuild trust if it hopes to recover its lost primary vote and counter the rising tide of One Nation’s popularity.