Key Takeaways
- Former President Donald Trump has circulated a draft peace agreement for the Iran‑U.S. conflict among allies, aiming to prevent cease‑fire violations that could derail negotiations.
- The draft proposes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and releasing up to $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, with talks on Iran’s nuclear program to follow within a 60‑day window.
- Pakistan’s foreign minister will meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to accelerate the process, while Iran continues indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.
- Israel finds the draft unacceptable because it postpones firm nuclear commitments by Iran and requires a permanent cease‑fire that includes Lebanon.
- Iran is pursuing a separate arrangement with Oman that would impose tolls for navigation in the Strait, a move Trump has threatened to counter with sanctions or even military action against Oman.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) asserts control over the strait, demanding permission for all vessels and warning that unauthorized passage will be treated as a disruption.
- Recent skirmishes—U.S. strikes on an Iranian drone operation and Iranian retaliation against a U.S. base in Kuwait—have kept the cease‑fire fragile, contributing to a modest rise in oil prices.
- Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s deputy Mojtaba Khamenei, warns that the U.S. and Israel seek to sow internal division and cripple Iran’s economy.
- Human rights groups report that Iranian authorities have arrested over 6,000 individuals since the U.S.–Israel offensive began on 28 February, targeting protesters, journalists, lawyers, and minorities.
- China advocates for UN Security Council ratification of any final agreement, while the U.S. has sanctioned Iran’s nascent Persian Gulf Strait Authority and warned Oman against facilitating a toll system.
Trump’s Draft Peace Initiative
Former President Donald Trump has shared a draft peace agreement concerning the Iran‑U.S. standoff with allied nations, including Israel. The document seeks to halt any fresh breaches of the existing cease‑fire that could spiral out of control and jeopardize a negotiated settlement. By circulating the proposal, Trump hopes to create a common framework that both sides can build upon while avoiding further escalation.
Core Provisions of the Draft
The draft mirrors earlier versions circulating in the Middle East. It calls for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened to commercial shipping, the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and the release of up to $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets. Commercial traffic in the strait would aim to return to pre‑war levels within 30 days, after which negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme would commence and could last up to 60 days. Those talks would address Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a possible time‑limited suspension of further enrichment, and IAEA supervision, with Iran agreeing to renounce nuclear weapons.
Diplomatic Push from Pakistan
To speed up the negotiations, Pakistan’s foreign minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, is scheduled to travel to Washington on Friday for a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting underscores Pakistan’s role as a mediator in the indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran, which has continued despite occasional flare‑ups. Pakistani officials hope that a face‑to‑face discussion will help bridge remaining gaps and keep the peace process on track.
Recent Military Exchanges
On Thursday, Iran launched a strike against a U.S. airbase in Kuwait after Washington said it had targeted an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz. These reciprocal attacks highlight the fragility of the cease‑fire agreed upon on 8 April. Although indirect contacts mediated by Pakistan and Qatar persist, any increase in unauthorized attempts by oil tankers to transit the strait could cause the truce to collapse. Oil prices reacted modestly, climbing about 2 % but staying below $100 a barrel.
Iran’s Demand for Unrestricted Asset Release
In Moscow, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, reiterated Tehran’s insistence that the frozen assets be transferred into Iranian bank accounts without any conditions. The United States, however, has responded by imposing sanctions on Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body tasked with overseeing vessel traffic through the waterway. Washington’s actions aim to pressure Iran into compliance while limiting its ability to manage the strait independently.
Oman’s Role and Trump’s Warning
Iran is simultaneously pursuing a separate arrangement with Oman that would impose fees for “navigational services” in the Strait of Hormuz. In remarks that drew no official reply from Muscat, Trump warned that he would “blow up” Oman if it agreed to a deal involving tolls. The IRGC’s navy reinforced its control over the strait, stating that 26 commercial ships and oil tankers had been permitted to pass in the past 24 hours and emphasizing that passage without Iranian permission would be deemed disruptive. The Guard also intervened to stop four vessels attempting to transit with transponders off, turning two back and detaining two in place.
Israel’s Opposition
Israeli officials view the current draft as deeply unsatisfactory because it postpones any firm nuclear commitments from Iran and mandates a permanent cease‑fire that includes Lebanon. Israel argues that such terms leave its security concerns inadequately addressed and could enable Iran to retain a latent nuclear threat while benefiting from economic relief. Consequently, Tel Aviv is likely to push for stricter conditions or seek alternative assurances before endorsing any agreement.
Internal Iranian Pressures
Amid the negotiations, senior Iranian leaders have warned against allowing external pressures to fracture domestic unity. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s deputy, Mojtaba Khamenei, told officials not to turn policy differences into divisions and urged the currently closed parliament to address the public’s economic grievances. Khamenei accused the United States and Israel of attempting to “bring the country to its knees” by sowing division and destruction to offset their own military setbacks.
Human Rights Situation
Amnesty International reported that Iranian authorities have arrested more than 6,000 people since the U.S.–Israel offensive began on 28 February. Those detained include protesters, journalists, lawyers, human‑rights defenders, dissidents, and members of ethnic and religious minorities. The crackdown underscores the broader repression accompanying the diplomatic and military tensions, raising concerns about the domestic cost of the ongoing standoff.
International Perspectives
China has called for any eventual agreement to be ratified by the United Nations Security Council, seeking multilateral legitimacy. Meanwhile, the United States has sanctioned Iran’s nascent Persian Gulf Strait Authority and warned Oman—through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—that assistance in establishing a toll system could trigger sanctions against any involved countries. These moves illustrate the competing pressures shaping the negotiations, as external actors seek to influence the outcome while trying to preserve regional stability.