Key Takeaways
- Queensland’s Liberal National Party (LNP) primary vote has slipped to 30 % – its lowest level in Resolve Strategic surveys since returning to government.
- One Nation’s support remains steady at 17 %, making it the leading minor‑party option and pushing combined non‑major‑party vote above 40 %.
- Despite the drop in party vote, Premier David Crisafulli retains a strong personal rating (+19) and is preferred by 42 % of respondents as premier, outpacing Labor’s Steven Miles (26 %).
- Steven Miles’ personal rating has fallen to –5, its lowest point since losing office in October 2024.
- The poll, conducted in two waves (March 8‑14 and April 13‑18) with 870 respondents and a 3 % margin of error, was completed just before the Stafford byelection campaign began.
- Analyst Jim Reed notes that One Nation’s rise in Queensland is distinctive because the Coalition already holds power, leaving fewer right‑of‑centre voters with a protest target.
- The LNP’s decline appears driven more by policy dissatisfaction and broader electoral circumstances than by a collapse in personal popularity for Crisafulli.
Polling Overview and Recent Trends
The latest two‑month polling snapshot from Resolve Strategic shows the LNP’s primary vote falling to 30 %, a four‑point decline since the February survey. This marks the party’s weakest showing in the series since it returned to government. Concurrently, One Nation steadied at 17 % primary support, maintaining its position as the top minor‑party choice in Queensland. Labor’s primary vote lingered below 30 % for the second consecutive poll, underscoring a broader erosion of the major‑party base.
Combined Non‑Major‑Party Strength
When aggregating support for parties and independents beyond the LNP and Labor, the figure reaches a high of 43 %. This reflects growing voter appetite for alternatives, particularly as minor parties and independents consolidate gains. The rise is not confined to a single group; instead, modest lifts across several smaller entities have together eroded the traditional two‑party dominance.
Leader Preferences and Personal Ratings
Despite the party’s slide, Premier David Crisafulli enjoys a robust personal approval rating of +19 and is favoured by 42 % of respondents as the preferred premier. This places him well ahead of Labor leader Steven Miles, who is preferred by only 26 %. Miles’ personal rating has deteriorated to –5, its nadir since he lost government in October 2024, indicating a decline in his individual appeal separate from party performance.
Policy Dissatisfaction versus Leader Approval
Resolve director Jim Reed interprets the LNP’s vote drop as stemming more from policy and circumstance than from a loss of confidence in Crisafulli personally. He notes that while the premier remains “liked and highly rated,” voters appear to be reacting to specific government actions or inactions. This dichotomy suggests that the LNP could regain ground by adjusting policy positions without necessarily needing a leadership change.
One Nation’s Unique Queensland Trajectory
Reed highlights that One Nation’s steady 17 % share is noteworthy because it has not yet breached the 20 % mark in Pauline Hanson’s home state, unlike its performance in other jurisdictions. He attributes this to the fact that the Coalition already holds power in Queensland, leaving fewer right‑of‑centre voters with a clear protest target. Consequently, One Nation’s gains are drawn almost equally from both Labor and the LNP, reflecting a broader realignment rather than a purely anti‑government protest vote.
Impact of Right‑of‑Centre Dynamics
In states where the Coalition is out of power, right‑of‑centre voters often flock to minor parties as a means of expressing dissent. In Queensland, however, the governing LNP already occupies that ideological space, reducing the incentive for protest voting. Yet the data show that One Nation is still managing to siphon votes from both major parties, indicating that its appeal extends beyond simple protest to distinct policy or cultural positions that resonate with a segment of the electorate.
Methodological Details
The survey was conducted in two waves: March 8‑14 and April 13‑18, 2026, encompassing 870 Queensland voters. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points, a standard range for polls of this size. Fieldwork concluded on the eve of the formal campaign period for the Stafford byelection, triggered by the death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan, who had been expelled from the Labor caucus the previous year. This timing ensures that the poll captures voter sentiment just before a localized contest that could influence broader perceptions.
Context of the Stafford Byelection
The Stafford byelection in Brisbane’s north serves as a bellwether for suburban voter mood. With the late Jimmy Sullivan’s seat now vacant, both major parties and minor players are expected to poured resources into the contest. The byelection outcome may either reinforce the current polling trends—showing continued fragmentation—or provide a boost to whichever party successfully taps into local concerns, thereby offering an early test of whether the LNP can arrest its declining primary vote amid rising minor‑party influence.
Implications for Future Queensland Politics
The combined evidence points to a shifting electoral landscape where neither major party can rely on historical loyalties. The LNP’s challenge lies in translating Premier Crisafulli’s personal popularity into broader party support, potentially through policy recalibration or clearer differentiation from One Nation. Labor, meanwhile, must address its sub‑30 % primary vote and rebuild its appeal amid growing independent and minor‑party interest. If minor parties continue to consolidate, Queensland may see more frequent hung parliaments or coalition arrangements, altering the traditional two‑party dynamic that has dominated state politics for decades.
Conclusion
The latest Resolve Strategic poll reveals a Queensland electorate in flux: the LNP’s primary vote has dipped to its lowest point since returning to government, One Nation holds firm at 17 %, and the combined non‑major‑party vote exceeds 40 %. While Premier David Crisafulli retains strong personal approval, the divergence between leader favorability and party support signals that policy issues, rather than leadership credibility, are driving voter movements. As the Stafford byelection approaches, its outcome will offer a crucible for testing whether the major parties can regain traction or whether the rise of minor parties and independents will continue to reshape Queensland’s political map.