Key Takeaways
- The Farrer byelection has become a flashpoint over Pauline Hanson’s endorsement of Donald Trump’s involvement in the Iran conflict, with opponents linking her stance to rising fuel and fertiliser costs.
- Recent polls show Climate 200‑backed independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation candidate David Farley running neck‑and‑neck, indicating a highly competitive race ahead of the May 9 vote.
- Progressive advocacy group GetUp has launched a multi‑media anti‑Hanson campaign, raising over $400,000 and planning to spend at least $600,000—far exceeding its 2025 election budget.
- GetUp’s effort has reinvigorated its national membership, which grew by more than 100,000 in the past month, marking a rebound from its disappointing 2019 performance.
- One Nation’s primary vote has slipped to 22 % in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, its lowest level since January, even as it remains above its 2022 result.
- Internal criticism within One Nation points to negative publicity over the party’s employment of convicted rapist Sean Black and claims that GetUp’s messaging lacks credibility.
- Milthorpe warns she may be outspent by One Nation’s advertising, which ties Hanson to mining magnate Gina Rinehart and distances her from the inner‑city “teal” independent label.
- Nationals leader Matt Canavan and Liberal MP Andrew Hastie have intensified attacks on One Nation following its strong showing in the South Australian election.
- The outcome of the Farrer byelection could signal broader shifts in voter sentiment toward populist right‑wing parties, climate‑linked cost‑of‑living concerns, and the efficacy of well‑funded grassroots campaigns.
Farrer Byelection Shaped by Trump‑Iran War Narrative
The Farrer byelection, scheduled for May 9, has unexpectedly turned into a referendum on Pauline Hanson’s vocal support for Donald Trump’s stance toward Iran. GetUp and allied groups argue that Hanson’s alignment with Trump’s “economic recklessness” has directly contributed to soaring petrol prices and fertiliser costs, disproportionately affecting farmers and families in the sprawling southern NSW electorate. This framing seeks to portray Hanson’s foreign‑policy sympathies as a driver of everyday cost‑of‑living pressures, a message designed to resonate with the “battlers” One Nation traditionally claims to champion.
Polling Shows a Tight Race Between Milthorpe and Farley
Latest surveys from Resolve Political Monitor and other outlets place Climate 200‑backed community independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation candidate David Farley in a virtual dead heat. Milthorpe, a 47‑year‑old teacher who narrowed retiring MP Sussan Ley’s lead to just 6.2 percentage points at the May 2025 federal election, now faces a challenger whose party continues to ride a wave of populist sentiment. The neck‑and‑neck dynamic suggests that voter loyalties are fluid, and that targeted messaging could tip the balance in either direction.
GetUp Launches a High‑Budget Anti‑Hanson Offensive
In response to the perceived link between Hanson’s Trump support and regional economic strain, GetUp has marshalled a comprehensive advertising blitz. The campaign spans television spots, billboards, radio ads, and digital platforms across key regional centres such as Albury, Griffith, Barooga, and Deniliquin. GetUp interim chief executive Paul Ferris emphasised that the initiative aims to expose Hanson’s voting record—particularly moves to cut aged‑pension benefits and reduce corporate tax burdens—while highlighting her alleged billionaire backers and lavish lifestyle funded by public money.
Membership Surge and Financial Ambitions Revitalise GetUp
The anti‑Hanson drive has coincided with a remarkable surge in GetUp’s grassroots support; the organisation reports gaining more than 100,000 new members in the last month alone. This influx has placed GetUp in its strongest fiscal position since its disappointing 2019 election effort, when it was criticised for alienating swing voters through an overly aggressive climate‑change focus. GetUp now intends to spend at least $600,000 by polling day—a figure that eclipses its entire 2025 election budget and underscores the group’s determination to make a decisive impact in Farrer.
One Nation’s Vote Slips Amid Internal and External Pressures
Despite its recent triumph in South Australia—where it secured 22.9 % of the vote and four lower‑house seats—One Nation’s primary vote nationally has dipped to 22 % in April, the lowest level since January, according to Resolve Political Monitor. The decline is attributed partly to negative publicity surrounding the party’s employment of convicted rapist Sean Black, which One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce dismissed as “bad press.” Joyce also derided GetUp’s messaging as lacking credibility, claiming voters perceive the group as merely spreading “bile” rather than offering balanced critique.
Milthorpe Counters Spend‑Disadvantage Fears
Michelle Milthorpe has publicly warned her donor base that she risks being outspent by One Nation’s advertising machine, which she says is leveraging connections to mining magnate Gina Rinehart to amplify Hanson’s profile. Milthorpe seeks to distance herself from the inner‑city “teal” independent label, stressing her grassroots teacher background and local service record. Her campaign stresses that any perception of being a city‑centric elitist could alienate the very regional voters she hopes to win over.
Traditional Parties Escalate Attacks on One Nation
Beyond GetUp, established political players have intensified their assaults on One Nation. Nationals leader Matt Canavan and Liberal MP Andrew Hastie have increased criticism following the party’s strong South Australian showing, framing One Nation as a destabilising force that threatens both Coalition stability and national economic prudence. Their rhetoric mirrors GetUp’s cost‑of‑living narrative but adds a partisan edge, suggesting that One Nation’s populist appeal may undermine traditional conservative governance.
Implications for the Farrer Byelection and Wider Politics
The convergence of a well‑funded progressive campaign, a resurgent GetUp membership base, and sustained pressure from both major parties creates a volatile electoral landscape in Farrer. If Milthorpe can capitalise on voter discontent over fuel and fertiliser prices while deflecting accusations of elitism, she may secure a breakthrough that signals a shift away from populist right‑wing momentum. Conversely, should One Nation’s base remain mobilised despite negative publicity, the party could retain its foothold, reinforcing its role as a kingmaker in regional NSW. The outcome will likely serve as a barometer for how effectively cost‑of‑living concerns, foreign‑policy alignments, and grassroots financing shape voter decisions in the lead‑up to the next federal election.