Key Takeaways
- Ukraine is willing to withdraw heavy forces from the Donbas region if Russia mirrors the pullback as part of a peace deal.
- A 20-point draft peace plan has been developed by Ukraine and the US, which includes provisions for demilitarized zones, free economic zones, and security guarantees for Ukraine.
- The plan requires direct talks with US President Donald Trump and any final agreement would be put to a nationwide referendum in Ukraine.
- Russia has expressed hardline demands for any peace talks, including the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- The conflict in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly four years, with both sides deeply at odds over provisions to end the war.
Introduction to the Peace Plan
The conflict in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly four years, with both sides suffering heavy losses. In an effort to bring an end to the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that Ukraine is willing to withdraw "heavy forces" from the parts of the Donbas region it still controls if Russia mirrors the pullback as part of a peace deal. This announcement comes as part of a 20-point draft peace plan developed by Ukraine and the US, which includes provisions for demilitarized zones, free economic zones, and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Details of the Peace Plan
The 20-point draft plan was developed in response to an earlier 28-point plan that offered significant concessions to Russia and sparked deep alarm among officials in Europe and Ukraine. The current version of the document calls for Ukraine to hold elections "as soon as possible" if an agreement is signed, and for Ukraine to receive security guarantees "mirroring" Nato’s Article 5 guarantees of mutual protection for any member under attack. Additionally, Ukraine would join the EU at an unspecified date and receive funds for reconstruction, as well as a free trade agreement with the US. The draft also involves the creation of a working group to discuss the "redeployment of forces" as well as the creation of "potential future special economic zones".
Demilitarized Zones and Free Economic Zones
Zelenskyy has emphasized that any demilitarized zones would involve both sides withdrawing military forces, and that the areas from which Ukrainian troops have withdrawn would be under Ukrainian administration and police. The free economic zone format is meant as a compromise between Moscow’s demand that Kyiv cede the entire Donbas region and Ukraine’s refusal to give up territory. American negotiators are looking for a demilitarized zone or a free economic zone, meaning a format that could satisfy both sides. Zelenskyy has also called for the city of Enerhodar, built by the Soviet Union to house workers from the nuclear power plant and their families, to become a demilitarized, "free economic zone".
Points of Contention
Despite the progress made on the peace plan, there are still several points of contention between Ukraine and Russia. One of the main points of contention is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which is in territory under Russian control at present. Zelenskyy has rejected the idea that the plant be operated jointly by the US, Ukraine, and Russia, as laid out in the 20-point plan. Instead, he has suggested a compromise in which the plant would be operated by a company jointly owned by Ukraine and the US without Russian involvement, a proposal likely to be a non-starter for Moscow.
Russian Response
The Kremlin has responded to the peace plan by reiterating its hardline demands for any peace talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow wants its most hardline demands to form the basis for any peace talks with Ukraine, and that he expects his forces to keep advancing on the battlefield. Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said that Russia would "continue contacts through existing channels in the immediate future", but it remains to be seen whether Russia will be willing to compromise on its demands.
Next Steps
The next steps in the peace process will depend on the response from Russia. Zelenskyy has said that he is waiting for Moscow’s answer to the proposal, and that any final agreement would be put to a nationwide referendum in Ukraine. The US has been involved in the negotiations, with American negotiators meeting with Russian officials in Miami last weekend to discuss the peace plan. The conflict in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly four years, and it remains to be seen whether the current peace plan will be able to bring an end to the war.