Key Takeaways
- The 2028 Los Angeles Olympics will feature the U.S. men’s basketball team aiming for a sixth straight gold, but the roster is still in flux.
- Veteran stars like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant are aging, creating openings for newer talent.
- Early‑season projections (February 2025) are being re‑evaluated as the 2025‑26 NBA season and playoffs unfold.
- Several players have seen their Olympic stock rise (e.g., Jalen Brunson, Scottie Barnes, Jaden McDaniels) while others have dropped (e.g., Chet Holmgren, Jalen Duren).
- Positional battles, especially at guard and center, will heavily influence the final 12‑player selection.
Olympic Context and Timing
The 2028 Summer Games are scheduled to conclude just two weeks from now, and the men’s five‑on‑five basketball final will be one of the marquee events. Team USA enters as the reigning champion, having captured five consecutive gold medals and eight of the nine since NBA professionals began competing in the tournament. Home‑court advantage in Los Angeles adds a compelling narrative, but the Americans must also contend with a historically competitive field, particularly France, which has taken silver in the last two Olympiads.
Current Roster Landscape
The upcoming Olympics will mark a transitional period for the U.S. program. The 2024 Paris squad was anchored by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant, all of whom are now in the later stages of their careers. Their departure creates both a leadership vacuum and an opportunity for a new generation to step onto the international stage. Early February 2025 projections listed a tentative 12‑player roster, but the intervening months have reshaped perceptions as players have either elevated or faltered during the latter half of the 2025‑26 season and the postseason.
Stock Rising: Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks – Initially omitted from the February outlook, Brunson’s ascent has been swift. The Finals MVP has already delivered championships at the high school, collegiate, and professional levels and now eyes an Olympic gold medal. His poise in clutch moments, combined with a proven ability to score over and around French star Victor Wembanyama, positions him to inherit late‑game responsibilities previously held by James, Curry, and Durant. Moreover, Brunson went so far as to adjust his wedding date to suit national team commitments, underscoring his commitment to USA Basketball.
Stock Rising: Scottie Barnes
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors – Barnes, who barely cracked the preliminary roster in February, has fortified his case with a standout postseason. In just seven playoff games, he posted 24.1 points, 8.6 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. His ability to contribute across the box score, coupled with regular‑season totals that exceeded 100 blocks and 100 steals, demonstrates a rare blend of offensive versatility and defensive impact. Barnes’s style complements an Olympic roster that may rely on stars for scoring while needing defensive stalwarts who can thrive in limited offensive roles.
Stock Rising: Jaden McDaniels
Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves – McDaniels is being eyed as a premier perimeter defender who can provide energy off the bench. His shooting efficiency surged to 41 % from three‑point range during the regular season, and he effectively neutralized high‑profile point guards Jamal Murray and De’Aaron Fox in the playoffs. With projected chemistry alongside star guard Anthony Edwards—who appears near‑lock status for the 2028 team—McDaniels offers a blend of defensive tenacity and developmental upside at age 27, fitting comfortably within the typical Olympic roster age window.
Stock Rising: Emerging Guard Candidates
G Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs – Though not a front‑runner, Harper’s rookie performance earned him mentions in the conversation. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 draft displayed poise and playoff readiness, often emerging as the best guard on the floor during the Spurs’ Finals run. Meanwhile, Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 pick, remains a strong contender despite a regular‑season‑only résumé, highlighting the depth of talent among the 2025 draft class. Both players illustrate the intense competition for guard spots, a position expected to be heavily contested for Olympic inclusion.
Stock Falling: Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder – Holmgren continues to be regarded as a promising young big man, having earned Defensive Player of the Year runner‑up honors and an All‑NBA selection in the previous season. However, his production dipped sharply in the conference finals, averaging only 10.7 points on 51 % shooting against the Spurs after posting 18.6 points on 60 % shooting earlier in the playoffs. Such volatility raises concerns about his readiness to face elite opposition like Wembanyama in an Olympic setting. Team USA cannot rely solely on one matchup, so sustained consistency will be essential for his Olympic aspirations.
Stock Falling: Jalen Duren
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons – Duren’s postseason performance represented one of the steepest declines for an All‑Star since 1969, dropping 9.3 points per game from the regular season. His efficiency fell from an All‑NBA level to a passive, uncomfortable presence in the playoffs, a trend that does not align with the high‑stakes intensity the U.S. seeks. With two years remaining before the next Olympic selection, Duren faces a critical window to reinvent his playoff impact and reclaim a roster spot that he previously secured.
Stock Falling: Other Notable Declines
G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers – Although Mitchell reached the conference finals for the first time, his individual postseason output fell below expectations, and he now finds himself behind Brunson in the guard hierarchy. Both players occupy similar offensive niches and will be 31 at the 2028 Games, making the competition for a single guard slot especially fierce. Derrick White, Boston Celtics – White’s age (34 in 2028) already suggests a diminishing window, and while his defense remains elite, his shooting efficiency dropped to 39 % overall, with sub‑par percentages from both three‑point and mid‑range areas. These statistical setbacks, combined with his advancing age, cast doubt on his ability to return to Olympic contention.
Final Outlook and Selection Strategy
The process of finalizing the 2028 Olympic roster will continue to evolve over the next two years, demanding regular reassessments as players progress or regress. Positional depth—especially at guard and center—will be a decisive factor, with the United States boasting a surplus of talent that must be trimmed to a manageable 12‑player lineup. International threats, notably France’s disciplined schemes and the looming presence of Wembanyama, will test the Americans’ adaptability. Ultimately, the blend of seasoned veterans, emerging stars, and defensive specialists will determine whether Team USA can secure a historic sixth consecutive gold medal on home soil.