Key Takeaways
- Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee, has made affordability concerns a centerpiece of her campaign messaging in a heavily Republican Tennessee congressional district.
- The special election is poised to test how far Democrats can ride the affordability argument in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points last November.
- Republicans are hoping the district’s partisan lean, combined with Behn’s progressive profile and recently resurfaced remarks, will tilt the race in their favor.
- Democrats are banking that voters’ frustration over the GOP agenda in Washington could help them significantly overperform in the race.
- The special election has attracted millions of dollars in spending from outside groups and visits from national figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Introduction to the Special Election
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is just around the corner, and it’s poised to be a test of how far Democrats can ride the affordability argument in a heavily Republican district. Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee, has made affordability concerns a centerpiece of her campaign messaging, mirroring the playbook of the party’s victorious candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month. The district, which became vacant earlier this year when former GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned, includes parts of Nashville but is largely rural, stretching from the state’s border with Kentucky in the north to Alabama in the south.
The Candidates and Their Campaigns
Behn, a state representative and progressive organizer, narrowly won the four-way Democratic primary. Her opponent, Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran and member of the Tennessee Army National Guard, beat 10 other candidates to win the Republican nomination. The special election has attracted millions of dollars in spending from outside groups, with nearly $2.5 million coming from Republicans. Much of the Republican spending has focused on painting Behn as out-of-step with the district, highlighting her past comments on topics such as defunding the police. Behn, on the other hand, has made health care and grocery affordability a central part of her message, which she argues has been a common theme of her activism and political work.
The Role of National Figures
The special election has also attracted visits from national figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, who will hold a tele-rally for Behn on Monday. Trump, meanwhile, will hold his second tele-rally for Van Epps on the same day, alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson. The involvement of these national figures highlights the importance of the special election, which is seen as a gauge of the country’s political environment before the calendar turns to 2026.
The Impact of Redistricting
The 7th Congressional District was redrawn as part of the 2022 redistricting process, with Tennessee GOP lawmakers redrawing Nashville from one solidly Democratic district into three seats that favored Republicans. Despite Republicans’ advantage in the district, Democrats saw an opportunity to go on offense after their party’s total vote count in the October primary came about 6,000 shy of the number of ballots cast in the GOP primary. Behn’s campaign sees the millions that Republicans are pouring into the race as a sign of growing GOP concern.
The Final Stretch
As the special election approaches, both parties are bracing for a result that will be closer than the more than 20-point margins posted by Trump and Green a year ago. Chip Saltsman, a Nashville-based Republican strategist, said that while he still expects Van Epps to win, Democrats had done a better job of quickly pivoting to the general election. Behn, meanwhile, is emphasizing her efforts to repeal the state’s four percent grocery tax, her work advocating against cuts to Medicaid, and the cost-of-living issues she says Republicans in Washington have failed to address. The special election is poised to be a competitive and closely watched contest, with implications for the national political landscape.