Key Takeaways
- The Tennessee 7th Congressional District has been moved from Likely Republican to Safe Republican following Matt Van Epps’s 54%-45% special election win.
- The North Carolina 1st Congressional District has been moved from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, while the 3rd Congressional District has been moved from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
- A proposed Republican gerrymander in Indiana could make Republicans favored in all 9 of the state’s districts, although Rep. Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) would have a fighting chance to hold on.
- Redistricting has reduced the number of super-safe and super-competitive districts nationwide, based on 2024 presidential results.
- President Trump’s pardon of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) introduces added uncertainty into the Texas 28th Congressional District race.
Introduction to the Recent Election Results
The recent special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has concluded with Republican Matt Van Epps emerging victorious, winning 54% of the vote to Democrat Aftyn Behn’s 45%. This result has led to a change in the district’s rating from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. The election was closely watched, with both parties investing significant resources and attention. The outcome was influenced by the nationalization of the race, with President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R, LA-4) making appearances in support of Van Epps, while Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Behn.
Analysis of the Tennessee 7th Congressional District Election
The Tennessee 7th Congressional District is a diverse district, comprising four distinct sections. The first section includes parts of Davidson County, which is the most Democratic area of the district. This section swung nearly 20 points to the left, with Behn performing well in the Nashville metro area. However, the other sections of the district did not move as significantly towards the Democrats. The second section, which includes Robertson, Cheatham, and parts of Williamson County, was relatively stagnant, with Van Epps performing well in these areas. The third section, which includes Montgomery County, is typically a bellwether for the district and swung about a dozen points more Democratic. The final section, which includes several rural counties, saw the least blue movement.
North Carolina Redistricting and Rating Changes
Following the Republican re-gerrymander of North Carolina, Rep. Don Davis (D, NC-1) has decided to run in his current district, rather than in the 3rd Congressional District, where his hometown was redrawn. As a result, the rating for NC-1 has been changed from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, while the rating for NC-3 has been changed from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. The new map has made NC-1 more competitive, but Davis still faces an uphill battle in the district.
Proposed Indiana Gerrymander
A proposed Republican gerrymander in Indiana could significantly alter the state’s congressional map. The proposal would split the current Democratic-leaning district in Marion County into four districts, each of which would vote roughly in line with the statewide topline. This would likely result in a 9-0 Republican delegation, with Rep. Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) facing a tough re-election battle. However, it remains unclear whether the proposal has the votes to pass the Indiana Senate, and the battle over redistricting has turned ugly, with reports of bomb threats and harassment.
The New House Map: A Contraction in Super-Safe and Super-Swingy Seats
The new House map, based on 2024 presidential results, shows a contraction in both super-safe and super-competitive districts. The number of districts that voted most similarly to the nation for president has decreased, while the number of districts with a more partisan lean has increased. This is a result of partisan gerrymandering, with the majority party using redistricting to spread out their votes and create safer seats. The proposed Indiana map is a prime example of this, with Republicans unpacking their own super-safe seats while keeping them red enough to elect Republicans.
Implications for the 2026 Election
The new House map has significant implications for the 2026 election. The contraction in super-safe and super-competitive districts means that the battle for the House majority may be won or lost in the districts that are most closely contested. The R +5 to 10 groupings, which include districts such as NC-1 and OH-9, may not be completely safe for Republicans in a midterm Democratic wave scenario. The R +2 to 4 group, which includes districts such as ME-2 and TX-28, has contracted, and Democrats will need to take a bite out of this column if they are to have a big night in the House. The number of seats right in the middle of the table, where Trump got between 49%-51% of the vote, has also contracted, and Democrats hold a 12-10 edge among these seats.