Key Takeaways:
- The US National Security Strategy document describes Europe as a continent in decline due to migration policies and censorship of free speech.
- A leaked draft of the document allegedly lists Italy, Austria, Poland, and Hungary as countries the US should "work more with" to pull them away from the European Union.
- The US may be trying to divide the European Union by supporting right-wing and euroskeptic parties in these countries.
- Experts believe the US goal is not to promote the departure of these countries from the EU, but rather to push a gradual disintegration of European integration.
- The US has been interfering in democratic processes in Europe, supporting those who can weaken Brussels and promoting a self-reliant Europe while wanting a dependent EU.
Introduction to Transatlantic Relations
Transatlantic relations have suffered significantly since Donald Trump took office again. The publication of the National Security Strategy on December 4, 2025, was seen by many European politicians as an open affront. The document describes Europe as a continent in decline, where there is a risk of "civilizational erasure" due to migration policies, and mentions "censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition." A longer, unpublished draft of the document was circulated prior to the official, public strategy, which reportedly lists Italy, Austria, Poland, and Hungary as countries the US should "work more with" to pull them away from the European Union.
The US Interest in Italy, Austria, Poland, and Hungary
The inclusion of these four countries on the list is not surprising, given their current political landscapes. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a close ally of Trump, and both leaders stand to benefit from each other’s political stance. Orban is seen as a maverick and a destabilizing force for the EU, which Trump appears to distrust. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her right-wing party with neo-fascist roots have also been praised by Trump. Poland and Austria, although not currently led by right-wing populist governments, have influential right-wing and euroskeptic parties that the Trump administration may hope to exert influence over.
The Exclusion of the Czech Republic and Slovakia
What is surprising is the exclusion of the Czech Republic and Slovakia from the list. Both countries have seen a shift to the right in recent years, with the Czech Republic’s billionaire Andrej Babis and his populist ANO party winning parliamentary elections, and Slovakia’s Robert Fico coming to power as prime minister with a nationalist and increasingly right-wing party. Both Babis and Fico are outspoken EU skeptics, and their parties have the potential to cause chaos in EU decision-making and undermine the bloc’s authority. However, experts believe that the US approach is ideological, and since ANO and Smer-SD do not have a traditional right-populist background, they are not considered to be like-minded.
The Gradual Disintegration of the European Union
The US government’s interference in democratic processes in Europe, such as Vice President JD Vance’s controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference, has been dismissed by observers of transatlantic relations. However, the pattern of support for those who can weaken Brussels and promote a self-reliant Europe while wanting a dependent EU has continued. Experts doubt that the US goal is to promote the departure of one of these four nations from the bloc but rather to push a gradual disintegration of European integration through diplomatic, political, and perhaps even financial support. The first signs of this are already visible, with Hungary announcing it will refuse to comply with the EU’s decision to phase out its dependence on Russian energy.
Conclusion and Future Implications
The US National Security Strategy document and the leaked draft have significant implications for transatlantic relations and the future of the European Union. The US may be trying to divide the EU by supporting right-wing and euroskeptic parties, and promoting a gradual disintegration of European integration. Experts predict that in the coming years, there will be more cases of member states failing to comply with joint decisions, calling into question the very essence of European integration. As the US continues to interfere in democratic processes in Europe, the future of the EU and transatlantic relations remains uncertain.