US Influence in Decline: Lessons from South Africa’s G20 Presidency

Key Takeaways:

• The G20 meeting in South Africa marked a significant shift in global governance, as the world reached consensus without the United States for the first time in history.
• The meeting exposed a widening fault line on economic strategy between the US and other major powers, with most countries favoring integration and interconnectedness over decoupling and fragmentation.
• The US remains dominant in finance, but its influence is vulnerable to erosion as countries diversify their reserves, adopt alternative payment systems, and build regional banks.
• Coercive unilateralism, a strategy relied upon by the US, is a short-term solution that ultimately erodes its influence and accelerates the shift towards multipolarity.
• The world is moving towards a post-hegemonic era, where the US is no longer the axis around which global decision-making revolves, and countries are learning to move on without relying on Washington’s blessing.

Introduction to a New Era
The recent G20 meeting in South Africa marked a significant turning point in global governance, as the world reached consensus without the United States for the first time in history. This quiet milestone was not anticipated, and it has far-reaching implications for the future of international relations. The meeting was not a rebellion against the US, but rather a demonstration of the world’s ability to act without Washington’s leadership. This shift is not a rejection of the US, but rather a recognition that the world can function without its dominance.

A Widening Fault Line on Economic Strategy
The G20 meeting also exposed a significant divergence between US global economic thinking and that of most other major powers. While the US has been urging partners to "de-risk" from China, other countries are hesitant to adopt this approach, recognizing that development requires integration, not fragmentation. European leaders, India, and other major powers have emphasized the importance of strategic autonomy and refused to choose sides. The rest of the world sees decoupling as an economic hazard, and instead favors a reaffirmation of interconnectedness. This divergence has significant implications for the future of global trade and economic cooperation.

The Shifting Weight of the Global Economy
The reason Washington’s absence did not derail the G20 talks lies in the shifting weight of the global economy itself. The US remains the world’s largest single economy, but the G20 minus the US forms a combined economic bloc almost three times larger. The numbers tell a richer story, with China dominating global manufacturing, India’s demographic and economic growth continuing its upward march, and the European Union commanding enormous market power. The Gulf, Asean, Latin America, and Africa are emerging as unmistakable engines of demand. While the US remains dominant in finance, its influence is vulnerable to erosion as countries diversify their reserves, adopt alternative payment systems, and build regional banks.

The Limits of Coercive Unilateralism
The US has relied increasingly on coercive unilateralism, using secondary sanctions, threats of market exclusion, extraterritorial regulation, export controls, and political pressure to force alignment. However, this strategy is a short-term solution that ultimately erodes US influence and accelerates the shift towards multipolarity. Middle powers, such as India, Brazil, and Turkey, are quietly reorganizing their economic and diplomatic architecture to reduce exposure to US pressure. Global South blocs are growing more cohesive, and even US allies are becoming uneasy. Instead of strengthening its leadership, coercion erodes it, teaching the world that dependence on the US is a liability.

The Paradox of Hegemonic Overreach
The more Washington tries to preserve its influence through pressure, the more it accelerates the erosion of that influence. Every sanction pushes countries to build alternatives, every export ban spurs investment in competing technologies, and every act of unilateral punishment validates the case for multipolarity. This is the geopolitical paradox of our era, where the pursuit of hegemony ultimately leads to its decline. The world is moving towards a post-hegemonic era, where the US is no longer the axis around which global decision-making revolves.

A World Moving On with Confidence
The South African G20 presidency revealed that the world is not moving against the US, but rather moving without it. This is precisely what multipolarity looks like in practice: a quiet normalization of autonomy. The rest of the world still sees value in the US and wants partnership, innovation, and cooperation. However, it no longer assumes that global consensus requires Washington’s blessing. The US is not being rejected; it is being bypassed. Whether Washington recognizes this and recalibrates, or doubles down on coercive unilateralism, will determine the character of the coming international order. The South African G20 meeting was not a confrontation; it was a revelation, and the revelation was simple: the world is learning to move on.