Key Takeaways
- The Makerfield by‑election was triggered when incumbent MP Josh Simons resigned to let Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham run for the seat, positioning Burnham as a potential challenger to Labour leader Keir Starmer.
- Labour’s national popularity has slumped, with Reform UK gaining ground; Starmer is currently the most unpopular prime minister in Ipsos polling since the 1970s.
- Andy Burnham, a well‑known figure in Greater Manchester, campaigns on a “Manchesterism” platform that mixes pro‑business investment with public control of essential services and aims to win back Labour’s traditional working‑class “Red Wall” voters.
- Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, seeks to capitalize on anti‑immigration sentiment but faces controversy over alleged sexist and misogynistic social‑media posts.
- A breakaway far‑right party, Restore Britain, led by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, could siphon votes from Reform UK and indirectly aid Burnham.
- Polls show a tight two‑horse race between Burnham and Kenyon, with Burnham holding a five‑point lead among likely voters, while Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd is projected to take about 7 % of the vote.
- Tactical voting by supporters of smaller parties (Greens, Liberal Democrats) could be decisive; many see Burnham as the only candidate capable of blocking a Reform UK victory.
- Even if Burnham wins, longer‑term trends suggest Reform UK may continue to gain ground in Makerfield, signalling a broader challenge for Labour across northern England.
Why the By‑Election Is Happening
Makerfield’s by‑election stems from the resignation of MP Josh Simons, who stepped down to clear the way for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat. Simons framed his departure as a response to Labour’s internal discord, claiming the party was heading toward a divisive leadership contest with “no hope, no energy that anything would change.” By vacating the seat, Simons hoped to give Burnham—a prominent northern figure—a direct route back to Westminster and a platform to challenge Labour leader Keir Starmer. The move also reflects Labour’s desperation to revive its fortunes after a steep decline in popularity, underscored by heavy losses in recent local elections and rising support for Reform UK.
Labour’s Candidate: Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham, the incumbent Mayor of Greater Manchester, is Labour’s standard‑bearer in Makerfield. After serving in several cabinet roles under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Burnham left Westminster to focus on regional governance, where he has cultivated a reputation for pragmatic, pro‑business policies paired with a commitment to returning essential services to public control—a blend he dubs “Manchesterism.” His national profile rose during the COVID‑19 pandemic, when he openly opposed Conservative restrictions, and through his long‑standing advocacy for Hillsborough justice. Burnham’s strong ties to the north of England and his personal popularity make him Labour’s best hope for reclaiming the “Red Wall” constituencies that have drifted toward Reform UK.
Reform UK’s Candidate: Robert Kenyon
Reform UK fields Robert Kenyon, a local plumber often nicknamed “the plucky plumber” by media commentators. Kenyon’s campaign leans on the party’s anti‑immigration, anti‑establishment message, which has attracted former Conservative voters and sections of Labour’s traditional working‑class base. However, his bid has been marred by allegations of sexist and misogynistic social‑media posts, including COVID‑19 conspiracy theories, disparaging remarks about television presenter Carol Vorderman, and comments suggesting women fabricate rape claims to obtain abortions. These controversies, highlighted by the anti‑extremism group HOPE not hate, threaten to erode his credibility despite his grassroots appeal.
A Third‑Way Challenger: Restore Britain
Restore Britain, a newly formed far‑right party spearheaded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, adds another layer of complexity. Lowe left Reform UK after criticizing leader Nigel Farage and facing workplace‑bullying allegations, which he denies. Since its launch less than four months ago, Restore Britain claims over 96,000 members and 13 councillors, many defectors from Reform UK. Its parliamentary candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, is projected to capture roughly 7 % of the vote. If a significant portion of Restore Britain’s supporters ultimately return to Reform UK, the far‑right vote could consolidate; conversely, if they stay split, the division may benefit Burnham by weakening Kenyon’s share.
The Conservative Presence: Michael Winstanley
Michael Winstanley, former mayor of Wigan, stands as the Conservative candidate. Though praised by party leader Kemi Badenoch as a longtime community champion, the Conservatives appear marginal in Makerfield. In recent Wigan local elections they won no seats, and in the 2024 general election they secured just over 10 % of the vote, finishing behind Labour and Reform UK. Consequently, Winstanley’s campaign is unlikely to sway the outcome, but his presence underscores the fragmented nature of the contest.
What the Polls Indicate
Polling data suggests the Makerfield by‑election is essentially a two‑horse race between Burnham and Kenyon. An Opinium survey for Forward Democracy, based on 543 local respondents, shows Burnham leading Kenyon by five percentage points among voters most likely to turnout (46 % vs. 41 %). When factoring in the anticipated 7 % share for Restore Britain’s Shepherd, Kenyon’s effective support drops further. The Conservatives languish at around 2 %. Interestingly, when respondents were asked about a hypothetical future general election, Reform UK led with 42 % versus Labour’s 34 %, indicating that Burnham’s personal appeal may be temporarily boosting Labour’s performance beyond its national standing.
Tactical Voting and the Role of Smaller Parties
Political observers highlight the potential impact of tactical voting from supporters of the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and other minor parties. Tom de Grunwald of Forward Democracy argues that, for anyone wishing to block a Reform UK victory, the logical choice is to back Burnham, as he is the only candidate with a realistic chance of defeating Kenyon. Conversely, Aaron Bastani expresses skepticism that many Restore Britain voters will revert to Reform UK, noting that some now view Farage as part of the establishment. He believes Restore Britain could outperform expectations, splitting the far‑right vote and inadvertently aiding Burnham, though he warns that a stronger Reform UK candidate could alter the dynamics dramatically.
Broader Implications for Labour and the UK
The outcome in Makerfield carries weight far beyond the constituency itself. A Burnham victory would bolster his claim to lead the Labour Party, presenting a direct challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid growing discontent over the party’s handling of the economy, immigration, and welfare. Conversely, a Kenyon win would signal that Reform UK can translate its local council gains into parliamentary success, potentially accelerating its displacement of Labour in northern England. Even if Burnham prevails, the longer‑term trend—Reform UK leading in future‑general‑election polling—suggests Labour faces an uphill battle to retain its traditional strongholds without addressing the underlying concerns driving voters toward populist alternatives.
Conclusion
Makerfield’s by‑election encapsulates a micro‑cosm of Britain’s current political turbulence: a besieged Labour leadership, a surging far‑right, and a charismatic regional figure offering a possible alternative. The contest will test whether personal appeal and local governance credentials can outweigh national party fatigue, and whether tactical voting and vote‑splitting among right‑wing factions will shape the next chapter of British politics. Regardless of the immediate result, the ripple effects are likely to influence Labour’s internal leadership contest, Reform UK’s electoral trajectory, and the broader struggle for the allegiance of the country’s working‑class voters.