Key Takeaways:
- The Belgrave Circle roundabout in Leicester is a microcosm of the current state of British politics, with the Labour Party’s vote being split by independent and Green candidates.
- Labour’s vote share has plunged since the last election, and its base has fractured as support for insurgent parties on the right and left surges.
- The Greens and Your Party are gaining traction on the left, potentially threatening Labour’s seats and creating opportunities for the Conservatives and Reform UK to win.
- Senior Labour figures, including cabinet ministers, are vulnerable to challenges from these new forces on the left.
- Tactical voting could be a key factor in the next election, with the possibility of left-wingers holding their nose and voting Labour to prevent a Reform UK victory.
Introduction to the Belgrave Circle
The Belgrave Circle roundabout in Leicester may seem like an ordinary traffic intersection, but it holds a significant story about the current state of British politics. Opened in 2015, it was once a hub of Labour support, with the city’s three parliamentary constituencies meeting at this spot and all being held by Labour MPs. However, the 2015 general election saw David Cameron win a majority, and Ed Miliband resign as Labour leader. Fast forward to the present, and the story around Belgrave Circle has changed dramatically.
The Shift in Leicester’s Politics
Standing in the middle of the roundabout, one can see the city’s only remaining Labour seat, held by cabinet minister Liz Kendall. However, turn around, and you’ll find the only place the Conservatives picked up at the last election, thanks to the Labour vote being split by two independent candidates. This freak occurrence happened after the Labour vote was cut in half, and the Tory vote dropped, but not enough to stop the party from coming through the middle and taking the seat. This phenomenon is not unique to Leicester, as evidence suggests that similar events could be on the rise around the country.
The Fracturing of Labour’s Base
Since the last election, Labour’s vote share has plunged, and its base has fractured as support for insurgent parties on the right and left surges. While much attention has been focused on Reform UK and how Labour can stop Nigel Farage in traditional ‘red wall’ seats, the greater number of votes Labour is losing on the left is often overlooked. A rejuvenated Green Party under Zack Polanski is chasing Labour close in some polls, while Your Party is attempting to form a separate fighting force straddling ex-Corbynites, independent pro-Gaza candidates, and those from the more hard-left tradition.
The Vulnerability Index
Sky News has ranked all 404 Labour seats according to how at risk they are to these new forces on the left, using factors like voting history, population, and demographic data. The results show several cabinet ministers in the top 25 most vulnerable, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Sir Keir Starmer, and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy. These Labour big beasts have seen their majorities cut in the last election by a Green candidate, an independent candidate, or a mix of the two. The Greens and Your Party have indicated they may be open to the idea of local "progressive pacts," which could trigger trouble for Labour.
The Consequences of a Split Vote
In the neighbouring constituency of Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North, the result last year shows how an altogether different result could materialise. Labour’s vote was again split by a left-wing insurgent candidate, but the Conservative vote was also cut in half by Reform. If Nigel Farage can unite the right in places like this, he could come through the middle, in much the same way the Tories did in Leicester. This scenario highlights the potential consequences of a split vote and the importance of tactical voting in the next election.
Fighting Back and the Role of Tactical Voting
So, how can the government fight back against these new forces on the left? Part of the answer, according to senior figures, is attempting to tell a more appealing story about the more left-wing chunks of their policy platform, such as the workers’ rights reforms and rental overhaul. The hope is that these stories may be given more of a hearing in 2026 when (or perhaps more accurately, if) a corner starts to be turned on big domestic priorities like the economy, the NHS, and migration. Tactical voting could also play a crucial role, with the possibility of left-wingers holding their nose and voting Labour to prevent a Reform UK victory.
The Binary Choice and the Great Enemy
Ministers are already trying to emphasise a binary choice when they talk about Labour being the one single "bulwark" to Nigel Farage. Expect more attempts to mobilise this anti-Reform vote in the years ahead. However, this is made more difficult by what happened around Leicester’s Belgrave Circle, where the same political fracturing that’s dogged the right in years past is now being replicated on the left. Labour’s ability to pick up the electoral pieces may prove decisive in whether what took place on a shabby East Midlands roundabout in July 2024 is recreated across the country in a few years’ time. The question remains: who is the great enemy for left-wingers – the government or Reform?