Key Takeaways
- Labour suffered heavy losses in recent English local council and devolved elections, with many seats shifting to the right‑wing Reform UK party.
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval rating has plummeted (23 % favorable, 69 % unfavorable), and over 90 Labour MPs have publicly called for his resignation.
- Under Labour rules, a leadership challenge requires support from at least 20 % of Labour MPs (81 people); if met, an internal election would decide the next prime minister.
- Potential challengers include Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester, seeking a Commons seat via a byelection), Wes Streeting (former health minister who resigned citing a lack of vision), and Angela Rayner (former deputy leader cleared of tax allegations).
- The UK’s “first‑past‑the‑post” system means the party leader with a Commons majority automatically becomes prime minister; leadership changes have frequently occurred internally in recent decades.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is gaining traction on anti‑immigration and anti‑EU‑human‑rights platforms, while the Green Party is expanding its influence on the left.
- The upcoming Makerfield byelection (expected late 2026) could shape the balance of power, with Burnham, Farage, and the Greens all eyeing the seat.
Starmer’s Fragile Hold on Power
Less than two years after securing a landslide victory that ended 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour party is facing a severe crisis of confidence. In the recent English local council elections and the simultaneous devolved polls for Scotland and Wales, Labour lost well over half of its council seats, many of which went to the right‑wing, anti‑immigration Reform UK. Although Starmer and his fellow MPs were not on the ballot, the defeats are widely interpreted as a referendum on his leadership. A YouGov survey this month showed only 23 % of Britons view him positively, while 69 % hold an unfavorable opinion, and more than 90 Labour MPs have publicly urged him to step down.
Mechanisms for Removing a Prime Minister
Starmer remains prime minister because his 2024 victory entitles him to govern until the next general election, which must be called by August 2029 at the latest. The only formal routes to oust him before then are a parliamentary vote of no confidence or loss of support within his own party. A vote of no confidence would require a simple majority defeat in the House of Commons; given Labour’s current 403‑seat majority, this scenario is unlikely. More plausible is an internal leadership challenge: Labour rules stipulate that at least 20 % of Labour MPs (81 individuals) must back a single challenger to trigger a party leadership election, whose winner would automatically become prime minister.
Potential Successors: Andy Burnham
The early favourite to lead a challenge is Andy Burnham, the elected Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester. Although mayors are not members of Parliament, Burnham hopes to secure a Commons seat through a byelection in the Makerfield constituency after Josh Simons, the current MP, resigned. If successful, Burnham would return to national politics for the first time since 2017, having previously served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the 2000s. Critics warn that leaving Manchester for a national campaign could be seen as abandoning his local duties, but his strong mayoral record gives him a credible base among Labour’s traditional heartland voters.
Wes Streeting’s Resignation and Ambitions
Wes Streeting, who resigned as health minister on Thursday, is another possible contender. In his resignation letter, he lamented a “vacuum of vision” and “drift” within the government, signalling his dissatisfaction with Starmer’s direction. Streeting grew up in difficult circumstances in London and has not yet announced a formal leadership bid. His recent departure from the cabinet may hurt his public image, but it also frees him to criticise the administration from the outside and potentially rally disaffected Labour MPs.
Angela Rayner’s Cleared Path
Angela Rayner, Starmer’s former deputy, has also positioned herself as a potential challenger. She stood down from the deputy leadership last September after accusations that she had deliberately avoided tax on a property purchase; UK tax authorities have since exonerated her. Rayner said she will not initiate a contest but refused to back Starmer when asked, keeping her options open. Her clearance removes a significant legal obstacle, and her popularity among the party’s left wing could make her a unifying figure if enough MPs rally behind her.
How UK Prime Ministers Are Chosen
The United Kingdom operates under a “first‑past‑the‑post” parliamentary system: 650 constituencies each elect one MP, and the party that secures a majority of seats forms the government, with its leader becoming prime minister. However, leadership changes frequently occur mid‑term through internal party votes or resignations, as seen with Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak over the past two decades. All of these individuals were elected MPs but assumed the top job without leading their party to a general‑election victory.
Reform UK and Nigel Farage’s Rising Influence
Labour’s electoral setbacks have largely benefited Reform UK, the party that succeeded Nigel Farage’s Brexit party in 2018. In the 2024 general election, Reform won five seats but captured over 14.3 % of the vote, becoming the third‑largest party by that metric. Recent defections of three Conservative MPs—including former Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick and Home Secretary Suella Braverman—have swollen Reform’s caucus to eight members. Farage’s personal popularity exceeds that of his party; after a brief hiatus to aid Donald Trump’s US campaign, he reversed course, won his first Commons seat, and now faces a parliamentary standards inquiry over a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, which he initially claimed was for security and later described as a reward for securing Brexit. Reform’s platform emphasizes removing illegal migrants, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, scrapping net‑zero targets, and cutting foreign aid—issues that resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
The Left‑Wing Counterbalance: The Greens
On the opposite flank, the Green Party is gaining ground. After winning just one national seat in 2024, the Greens now hold four seats, having more than doubled their vote share. They also performed strongly in the recent council elections, securing 376 council seats, control of five councils, and two mayoralties. Leadership under Zack Polanski, who assumed the role in 2025, has attracted youth voters and those dissatisfied with Starmer’s centrist Labour. The Greens’ rise suggests that voter fragmentation is accelerating, challenging the historic dominance of the two‑party system.
What Lies Ahead: The Makerfield Byelection
The next pivotal event is expected to be the Makerfield byelection, slated for later 2026. Burnham aims to run there, hoping to secure a Commons seat that would legitimize his leadership bid. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage may view the contest as an opportunity to inflict another blow on Labour, while the Greens are also likely to field a candidate, further splitting the vote. In the previous election, Labour garnered 18,202 votes to Reform’s 12,803, indicating a competitive battleground. If Burnham wins the byelection and manages to gather the requisite 81 Labour MPs’ support, he could trigger a leadership contest; otherwise, Streeting or Rayner could step in, with the latter waiting in the wings.
Starmer’s Immediate Outlook
For now, Keir Starmer remains prime minister, presiding over a reshuffled cabinet and navigating a tumultuous political landscape. His authority is weakened by dwindling public approval, mounting internal dissent, and the surge of both right‑wing Reform UK and left‑wing Green alternatives. Unless he resigns or loses a confidence vote—which seems improbable given Labour’s parliamentary majority—the coming months will test his ability to retain party unity, address voter concerns, and stave off a potential leadership challenge that could reshape Britain’s governing dynamics. The evolving interplay among Labour, Reform UK, the Greens, and occasional Conservative defectors will determine whether the UK’s traditional two‑party paradigm endures or gives way to a more fragmented, multi‑party system.