Key Takeaways
- Simon Boyd (REIDSteel) and Mike Hawes (SMMT) initially backed opposing sides of the 2016 Brexit vote but now share frustration with its outcomes.
- Brexit was sold as a path to sovereign control and economic boom; instead, the UK has experienced weaker growth, higher trade costs, and strained public services.
- Economic analyses estimate Brexit has cut UK GDP by 6‑8%, investment by 12‑13%, and productivity by 3‑4% relative to a remain scenario.
- Carmakers face added red‑tape that discourages investment, while the loss of free EU labour has hurt sectors reliant on Eastern European workers, such as curry restaurants.
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to reset UK‑EU ties, but his announced departure underscores political instability.
- Public sentiment is turning more negative: 48 % now say Brexit is worse than expected, up from 28 % in 2021, though Boyd still believes the 2016 referendum reflects the true will of the people.
Profiles of the Two Business Leaders
Simon Boyd manages REIDSteel, a Christchurch‑based fabricator of prefabricated steel structures employing roughly 130 workers and exporting to markets as distant as Ghana and Barbados. Mike Hawes heads the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), lobbying for Britain’s automotive sector. Though Boyd voted Leave and Hawes campaigned Remain in the 2016 referendum, a decade later both express disappointment with how Brexit has unfolded, citing unmet promises and ongoing economic headwinds.
Early Promises Versus Post‑Referendum Reality
Advocates of Brexit argued that departing the EU would free Britain from “bureaucratic edicts,” restore parliamentary sovereignty, curb immigration, and unleash a boom in trade and investment. Ten years on, the picture is markedly different: economic growth remains anemic, tax burdens are high, public services are under strain, and irregular migrant arrivals via the English Channel persist. Boyd summed up the sentiment, noting that Brexit “is not delivering everything that was said it would deliver on the tin,” but concedes it is still delivering—albeit sluggishly.
Boyd’s View on the Causes of Underperformance
Boyd stands by his original Leave vote but attributes the disappointing results to a lack of political commitment to fully implement Brexit’s potential. He points to exogenous shocks—COVID‑19, the war in Ukraine, and Middle‑East conflicts—as compounding factors that have distracted governments from delivering a clean break. In his view, the negotiated settlement kept the UK too tethered to EU rules, preventing the entrepreneurial freedom that Leave supporters envisioned.
Economic Estimates from Independent Research
Economists have quantified the cost of departure. Creon Butler of Chatham House warned that leaving the single market amounted to a “major loss of wealth and prosperity.” A National Bureau of Economic Research study comparing the UK to 33 other nations concluded that Brexit reduced British GDP by 6‑8%, cut investment by 12‑13%, and lowered productivity by 3‑4%. These figures suggest the economy is substantially smaller than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.
Challenges Facing Britain’s Carmakers
The automotive industry was an early and vocal opponent of Brexit, fearing that new customs checks and regulatory divergence would disrupt the tightly integrated European supply chain. Hawes confirmed that increased red‑tape has raised costs and pressured manufacturers, making the UK a less attractive gateway for international carmakers seeking access to the EU market. While the UK has pursued dozens of bilateral trade deals—with Australia, India, the United States, and others—EU nations still absorb 41 % of British exports and half of its imports, underscoring the continued importance of the European market.
Labour Market Disruptions and Sector‑Specific Impacts
One of the EU’s founding principles—free movement of labour—ended with Brexit, cutting off a pipeline of workers that many British businesses had come to rely on, especially after the bloc’s 2004 eastward expansion. Owners of curry restaurants, a staple from Aberdeen to Aberystwyth, report severe staffing shortages as Eastern European employees returned home rather than navigate new visa rules. Oli Khan, president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association UK, said the sector feels “betrayed” after being promised easier visas for South Asian cooks, a pledge that has not materialised.
Government Efforts to Mitigate Damage and Political Turbulence
In response to mounting economic strain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has opened talks with the EU aimed at rebuilding a closer relationship to revive the stagnant economy. However, his political tenure appears short‑lived: he announced he would be stepping down on Monday, casting doubt on the durability of any reset initiative. This leadership flux adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses already adjusting to post‑Brexit realities.
Shifting Public Opinion and Boyd’s Continued Faith
Polling by Ipsos, the Policy Institute at King’s College London, and UK in a Changing Europe shows growing disillusionment: 48 % of respondents said Brexit was turning out worse than expected (up from 28 % in March 2021), while only 9 % viewed it as better than anticipated. Boyd, however, places decisive weight on the original referendum result—51.9 % of voters, or 17.4 million people, chose to leave. He argues that the will of the people was subverted by politicians, large corporations, and entrenched interests that produced a compromise deal keeping the UK overly linked to the EU and stifling its entrepreneurial spirit.
Boyd’s Metaphor and Closing Thought
To illustrate his belief that a reversal would be disastrous, Boyd likened rejoining the EU to “re‑boarding the Titanic on the condition that we surrender our life vests first.” The image underscores his conviction that the UK’s current trajectory, despite its shortcomings, is preferable to returning under what he views as humiliating terms. Whether future leaders can reconcile the competing demands of sovereignty, economic vitality, and public sentiment remains an open question, but the past decade has made clear that Brexit’s legacy is still being written.