Key Takeaways
- Keir Starmer’s premiership is under pressure after poor local election results, opening a leadership vacuum.
- Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, is seeking a return to Parliament via the Makerfield by‑election, which could launch a challenge to Starmer.
- Burnham’s personal popularity, “everyman” image, and record on transport and homelessness give him a strong local base.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is gaining traction in post‑industrial areas like Makerfield, focusing on immigration and anti‑establishment sentiment.
- The electorate is increasingly fragmented; a split between Reform UK and the newer Restore Britain party could help Burnham win, but his national appeal remains untested.
The Political Starmer Situation
British politics is currently unsettled for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Disappointing local election outcomes have eroded his standing in polls and sparked murmurs of rebellion within the Labour Party. With time appearing to run short on his tenure, the party is searching for a credible figure who can revive its fortunes and stave off further losses. The crisis has shifted attention from Westminster to a seemingly unlikely battleground: the Makerfield constituency in England’s Northwest, where a by‑election could determine the next phase of Labour’s leadership struggle.
Why Makerfield Matters
Makerfield, home to roughly 75 000 voters, is more than a routine electoral contest; it is a potential springboard for Andy Burnham’s return to the House of Commons. The seat became vacant when former Labour MP Josh Simons stepped aside to allow Burnham to run. Winning here would not only restore Burnham’s parliamentary presence but also signal to Labour members that he can capture a traditionally safe seat despite the growing strength of right‑wing challengers. The outcome will be closely watched as a barometer of Burnham’s viability as a national leader.
Burnham’s Record as Mayor of Greater Manchester
Since becoming Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, Burnham has cultivated a reputation for pragmatic, visible leadership. His flagship initiatives—most notably the battle against homelessness and the effort to bring public transport under local authority control—have delivered tangible results that residents can see and feel. The bright‑yellow buses of his Bee Network now rumble through towns like Ashton‑in‑Makerfield, serving as a daily reminder of his hands‑on approach to governance.
Local Support and Personal Appeal
In the streets of Hindley, a town of just under 30 000 within Makerfield, many residents know Burnham personally or have interacted with him through community work. Retired youth worker Christine Burrows praises his “down‑to‑earth, very nice” demeanor after he helped her with a local issue, while Jean Black recalls his assistance at a nearby church and describes him as trustworthy. This grassroots familiarity fuels a sense that Burnham is not a distant politician but a neighbor who listens and acts.
National Profile and the “King of the North” Moniker
Burnham’s work during the COVID‑19 pandemic elevated him onto the national stage. His passionate defence of Greater Manchester’s need for additional government funding earned him the nickname “the King of the North,” a label that resonates beyond the region. Media appearances and televised briefings showcased his ability to articulate a clear message and connect with audiences, traits that political observers believe could translate well to a national campaign.
Contrast with Starmer’s Image
While Starmer is often perceived as technocratic and reserved, Burnham cultivates an approachable, everyman persona. Academic Alex Nurse of the University of Liverpool notes that Burnham’s style makes him seem like someone constituents could socialise with, a quality that Starmer lacks. Polls consistently show Burnham outperforming both Starmer and the Labour Party overall, suggesting that his personal popularity could be a decisive asset if Labour seeks a fresh face to revitalise its electoral prospects.
The Rise of Reform UK in Makerfield
Any Burnham victory must first contend with a surging right‑wing challenge. Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, has seized the disillusionment that once kept Labour dominant in post‑industrial towns. In the May local elections, Reform UK captured 24 of Wigan Council’s 25 seats, dwarfing the Conservatives. Their candidate, plumber and local councillor Rob Kenyon, focuses on traffic and illegal dumping but draws primary support from the party’s hard‑line stance on immigration, which resonates with voters concerned about job competition and strained public services.
Local Concerns Fuelling Right‑Wing Support
Residents such as housing‑maintenance worker Josh Westby cite low‑paid jobs being taken by newcomers as a key reason for backing Reform UK, describing the party as “putting the country first.” Retired cook Lynne Tindall echoes a widespread sentiment that immigration overwhelms local hospitals and GP surgeries, making access to care difficult. Although the proportion of foreign‑born residents in Hindley is only about 4 %—well below the national average of 17 %—the perception of strain on services fuels anti‑immigrant fervor that Reform UK adeptly channels.
A Fragmented Electorate and the Restore Britain Factor
The political landscape is further complicated by the presence of Restore Britain, a party founded by former Reform UK politician Rupert Lowe. Its platform includes abolishing the asylum system and deporting foreign nationals deemed to “actively hate” Britain’s way of life. Analysts predict that right‑wing voters may split between Reform UK and Restore Britain, potentially weakening the combined conservative vote. Political scientist Eric Shaw of the University of Stirling observes that modern voters are less bound by class or party loyalty, making emotional appeals and issue‑specific concerns decisive at the ballot box.
Outlook: Burnham’s Path to Leadership
Burnham’s ascent to a possible premiership hinges on two critical steps: securing victory in the Makerfield by‑election and then translating that local success into a national narrative that appeals beyond his personal base. If he wins, his proven record on transport, homelessness, and pandemic advocacy offers a concrete platform to challenge Starmer’s leadership. However, the rising influence of Reform UK—and the potential vote‑splitting effect of Restore Britain—means that Burnham must also address voters’ anxieties about immigration and public services, lest he lose ground to the right. The by‑election thus serves not only as a test of Burnham’s appeal but also as a bellwether for whether Labour can reclaim its traditional heartlands amid a fractured and volatile political climate.