Key Takeaways
- Andrew Gwynne, the former health minister, has denied reports that he plans to resign his seat to make way for Andy Burnham’s potential return to Westminster
- Burnham has dismissed reports of a "coup" against Keir Starmer as "quite a lot of rubbish"
- A recent poll suggests Burnham would be the most popular candidate to replace Starmer as Labour leader
- Gwynne is undergoing treatment for serious health issues and has not returned to Westminster since his dismissal as health minister
- Labour sources have played down reports of Burnham’s potential return to Westminster, citing several hurdles he would need to overcome
Introduction to the Speculation
The former health minister Andrew Gwynne has dismissed as "idle speculation" reports that he could resign his seat as part of an Andy Burnham "coup" against Keir Starmer. Allies of Burnham were reported to have identified a shortlist of seats that would allow the Greater Manchester mayor to return to Westminster in the new year. One of these seats is said to be that of Gwynne, who was suspended by the Labour party in February after a leak of offensive WhatsApp messages. However, Gwynne has stated that he has no intention of standing down imminently and that there have been no conversations with Burnham about him standing down.
Burnham’s Response to the Reports
Burnham himself has also dismissed the reports as "quite a lot of rubbish", adding that they remind him why he left Westminster in the first place. However, the former health secretary has refused to deny that he would return to parliament if the opportunity arose. This has led to speculation that Burnham may be planning a return to Westminster, potentially to challenge Keir Starmer’s leadership. A recent poll of Labour members suggested that Burnham would be the most popular candidate to replace Starmer, which has added fuel to the speculation.
Gwynne’s Health Issues and Future Plans
Gwynne, 51, is currently undergoing treatment for serious health issues and has not returned to Westminster since he was sacked as health minister. He has stated that he has no plans to stand down before the May elections and that no decision has been made on whether he will stand down or fight the next general election. Gwynne also emphasized that there have been no conversations with Burnham about him standing down, and that Burnham is a "close family friend" who knows that he is poorly and has not put any pressure on him.
Hurdles to Burnham’s Potential Return
Labour sources have played down reports that Burnham is on the brink of a major breakthrough in returning to Westminster. They point out that the mayor faces several hurdles before he could fight any byelection, not least being allowed by Labour’s ruling national executive committee to run as a candidate. Additionally, Starmer may seek to block Burnham from standing for election and potentially mounting a leadership challenge. However, this tactic could make the prime minister look weak, and Labour sources suggest that virtually no seat is a guaranteed path to victory for Burnham.
Alternative Scenarios and Implications
Some Labour figures have suggested that Burnham could arrange a "job swap" with Jim McMahon, the MP for Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton, who lost his ministerial job in the reshuffle in September. However, polls indicate that McMahon’s seat would be lost to Reform, and that Labour faces losing other previously loyal voters in the constituency to pro-Palestinian independents. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, has emphasized that everyone in Labour has a "role to play" in supporting the government, and that the party should focus on delivering for the people of the country rather than engaging in speculation and infighting.
Conclusion and Implications
In conclusion, the reports of a potential "coup" against Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster remain speculative at this point. While Burnham has dismissed the reports, he has not denied that he would return to parliament if the opportunity arose. Gwynne’s health issues and future plans remain uncertain, and Labour sources have played down the likelihood of Burnham’s return to Westminster. The party’s focus should be on supporting the government and delivering for the people of the country, rather than engaging in speculation and infighting. The outcome of this situation will be closely watched, as it has significant implications for the future of the Labour party and its leadership.