Key Takeaways
- Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, is seeking a return to Westminster via the Makerfield by‑election on 18 June.
- The contest has gained national attention because its outcome could influence who leads the UK’s 70 million‑strong population amid Labour leader Keir Starmer’s weakening position.
- Nearly 100 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign; the resignation of backbencher Josh Simons opened the seat for Burnham.
- Burnham’s reputation rests on tangible local achievements—most notably bringing Greater Manchester’s buses under public control and capping fares.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is fielding candidate Robert Kenyon and has surged in the area after winning 24 of 25 Wigan council seats.
- Polls suggest a tight race; respected pollster John Curtice expects a narrow Burnham victory at best, with Reform UK starting as favourites.
- Burnham’s past pro‑EU stance is being downplayed, while he stresses his personal ties to the constituency (childhood home, children’s school).
- A win would give Burnham a strong platform to challenge Starmer in a future Labour leadership contest.
- The by‑election thus serves as both a test of Burnham’s national appeal and a barometer of Labour’s ability to halt Reform UK’s momentum in its traditional heartland.
Andy Burnham’s Apology and the “Circus” Analogy
Andy Burnham kicked off his soft launch for a possible premiership with an apology to the residents of Makerfield, acknowledging the impending “circus” of politicians, canvassers, pollsters, and press that will descend on the north of England ahead of the June 18 by‑election. By describing the influx as a circus, Burnham captured the spectacle and disruption that a high‑profile contest brings to a usually quiet constituency. His tone was self‑aware, aiming to pre‑empt criticism that the national parties are treating the area as a political playground rather than a community with genuine concerns. The apology also signalled his intention to engage respectfully with voters while positioning himself as a candidate who understands the local sentiment.
Context of the Makerfield By‑election
Makerfield, a constituency of roughly 70,000 registered voters in the Wigan area of Greater Manchester, is not typically a flashpoint for national attention. However, the upcoming by‑election has become a focal point because its result could sway the balance of power in Westminster. Labour’s hold on the seat is currently tenuous after the resignation of its incumbent MP, Josh Simons, and the party’s recent poor performance in local elections across the region. A victory for Burnham would not only reclaim a Labour stronghold but also provide him with a parliamentary platform to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. Conversely, a loss would deepen Labour’s woes and embolden rivals, particularly the insurgent Reform UK party.
Starmer’s Political Crisis
Sir Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure to remain Labour leader after a string of missteps, scandals, and disappointing local election outcomes. Earlier this month, Labour suffered heavy losses in council contests, prompting almost 100 of the party’s 403 MPs to publicly call for his resignation. The health minister has stepped down, and four junior ministers have quit, signalling internal dissent. Although Starmer has resisted calls to quit and has not yet faced a formal leadership challenge, observers describe the situation as a “slow‑motion coup” unfolding behind the scenes. The party’s credibility is at stake, and the Makerfield by‑election is viewed as a critical test of whether Labour can regain traction under his leadership or whether a new figure—such as Burnham—might be needed to revive fortunes.
The Path Created by Josh Simons’ Resignation
The resignation of Josh Simons, a first‑term Labour MP for Makerfield, was the catalyst that opened the door for Burnham’s return to national politics. Simons vacated his seat specifically to allow Burnham, who currently serves as the elected mayor of Greater Manchester, a chance to re‑enter the House of Commons. This tactical move underscores the lengths to which Labour’s internal factions are willing to go to promote a candidate they believe can revitalise the party’s image. By stepping aside, Simons not only cleared a parliamentary vacancy but also sent a signal that the party is willing to prioritise electoral viability over incumbent loyalty in a high‑stakes environment.
Burnham’s Record in Greater Manchester
Burnham’s political brand is built on concrete achievements in Greater Manchester that resonate with everyday voters. He successfully brought the region’s bus network under public control, integrated it with other transport modes, and introduced fare caps to alleviate cost‑of‑living pressures. These reforms have been praised for improving accessibility and affordability, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the COVID‑19 pandemic when he criticised the Conservative government’s handling of regional lockdowns. Supporters argue that this track record demonstrates his capacity to deliver pragmatic solutions on a larger scale, a claim that Labour hopes will translate to national policy areas such as tax, welfare, energy security, immigration, and defence.
Reform UK’s Challenge and Nigel Farage’s Influence
Reform UK, led by the high‑profile anti‑immigration campaigner Nigel Farage, is emerging as a formidable challenger in Makerfield. The party announced Robert Kenyon—a 41‑year‑old plumber, army reservist, and weekend rugby‑league commentator—as its candidate. Kenyon previously finished second to Simons in the 2024 general election and recently secured a council seat in Wigan with more than double the votes of his Labour rival. Reform UK’s success in the local elections, where it captured 24 out of 25 Wigan council seats, indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, particularly among communities disillusioned with traditional parties. Farage’s involvement adds national visibility and a rallying point for voters concerned about immigration, national sovereignty, and perceived elitism.
Polling Outlook and Expert Opinions
Respected pollster John Curtice warned that the Makerfield by‑election will be “a close and difficult” contest, expressing doubt that Burnham will secure anything more than a narrow victory. He characterised Reform UK as the early favourite, predicting the party will pour resources into the race to capitalise on its recent local gains. Curtice also noted that Burnham’s challenge lies in winning back voters who abandoned Labour in the recent council elections—a demographic shift that could prove decisive. Despite Burnham’s personal popularity, reflected in net approval ratings of roughly +20 to +30 compared with Starmer’s –45, the electoral arithmetic remains uncertain, and the outcome could hinge on turnout and the effectiveness of each campaign’s ground game.
Burnham’s Personal Ties and Campaign Message
Burnham has emphasised his deep personal connections to Makerfield, noting that he grew up nearby and sends his children to a local school. This biography is intended to counter perceptions that he is a distant metropolitan politician parachuted into a working‑class area. In his campaign video, Burnham framed the incoming “circus” as an opportunity for neglected communities to finally sit at the centre of national debate, urging residents to view the heightened political attention as a positive development. By juxtaposing his local credentials with a narrative of inclusion, Burnham seeks to harness community pride and persuade voters that his leadership would bring both familiarity and fresh ideas to Westminster.
Implications for Labour Leadership
Should Burnham win the Makerfield seat, he would acquire a parliamentary platform that could serve as a springboard for a future Labour leadership bid. His current standing—significantly positive in popularity polls—contrasts sharply with Starmer’s declining fortunes, giving him a credible claim to represent a renewal direction for the party. A victory would also signal to Labour’s base that the party can still compete in its historic heartlands despite the rise of Reform UK. Conversely, a loss would likely cement perceptions of Labour’s vulnerability and could accelerate calls for a leadership change. Thus, the Makerfield by‑election is not merely a regional contest; it is a potential turning point that could shape the trajectory of British politics over the coming years.