Key Takeaways
- The Independent relies on reader donations to fund ground‑breaking, paywall‑free journalism on issues ranging from reproductive rights to climate change and Big Tech.
- Ten years after the 2016 referendum, Brexit has left the UK economy 4‑8 % smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the EU.
- While EU‑UK trade remains tariff‑free, new non‑tariff barriers – customs paperwork, certifications and visa rules – have hampered merchants and limited the promised post‑Brexit trade deals.
- Immigration policy shifted dramatically: free movement ended, net migration from Europe fell, but overall net migration rose due to increased arrivals from non‑EU countries and a surge in small‑boat Channel crossings.
- Public sentiment has turned against Brexit; polls show a majority would like to rejoin the EU or hold another referendum, while confidence in the government’s handling of the issue is low.
- The Labour government, elected in 2024, is walking a tightrope – it refuses to reverse Brexit but seeks a “reset” to ease trade and improve UK‑EU relations, facing pressure from both Reform UK and its own base.
Supporting Independent Journalism
The Independent appeals to readers for financial support to keep its reporters on the ground covering developing stories from reproductive rights and climate change to the inner workings of Big Tech. Donations enable the outlet to send journalists to speak with all sides of an issue, ensuring that facts are separated from spin. Unlike many quality news organisations that hide their reporting behind paywalls, The Independent believes high‑quality journalism should be freely accessible, funded by those who can afford to contribute. This model allows the newsroom to maintain independence while serving a politically diverse audience across the United States.
The Independent’s Mission and Funding Model
By emphasizing a donor‑driven, paywall‑free approach, The Independent positions itself as a trusted source for Americans across the political spectrum. The outlet highlights recent investigative work, such as examining the finances of Elon Musk’s pro‑Trump PAC and producing the documentary The A Word, which follows American women advocating for reproductive rights. Reader contributions directly fund these efforts, allowing the newsroom to pursue deep‑dive reporting without compromising editorial integrity or accessibility.
Brexit Referendum Results and Timeline
On June 23 2016, 52 % of voters – more than 17 million people – chose to leave the European Union, a decision that initiated the process known as Brexit. Although the margin was narrow, the vote triggered the most significant upheaval of the UK’s economy and society since World War II. The formal withdrawal took nearly five years to complete, reflecting the complex legal and logistical disentanglement required after a half‑century of ever‑closer integration with the continent.
Economic Impact of Brexit
Proponents of Brexit argued that exiting the EU would unleash a “buccaneering spirit” and revitalise the British economy by allowing it to focus on domestic priorities. In reality, the UK’s economic performance has lagged. The COVID‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the recent U.S.–Israeli conflict over Iran have exacerbated challenges, but analysts contend that Brexit itself has imposed a structural drag. Experts estimate that the British economy is now between 4 % and 8 % smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the EU, a gap that translates into billions of pounds in lost output and reduced funding for public services such as the National Health Service.
Trade Barriers and Unfulfilled Deals
Although the UK‑EU trade agreement eliminates tariffs, it introduces a range of non‑tariff obstacles that traders must navigate. Customs declarations, border certifications, and visa requirements have increased paperwork and delays for businesses exporting to the EU, the UK’s largest trading partner. Many of the high‑profile trade deals promised by Brexit advocates – most notably a comprehensive agreement with the United States – have failed to materialise, leaving the anticipated economic benefits unrealised.
Assessments of Economic Size Relative to EU Scenario
Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s College London, notes that Brexit’s effect has not been a sudden collapse but a gradual, cumulative drag on trade, investment, and productivity. This perspective underscores that the economic cost is spread over time, making it less conspicuous in any single year yet substantial in the aggregate. Brexit supporters counter that any short‑term disruption was expected and that long‑term gains from regained policy sovereignty – especially over migration – will eventually outweigh the early pains.
Brexiters’ Defense of Short‑Term Pain
Advocates of Brexit maintain that judging the decision solely on immediate economic indicators is misguided. They argue that the vote was fundamentally about reclaiming control over national policies, particularly immigration, and that the temporary economic friction was an acceptable price for greater autonomy. This viewpoint frames the ongoing economic adjustments as a necessary transition toward a more self‑determined UK, even if measurable benefits have yet to appear.
Immigration Policy Shifts and Outcomes
One of the central promises of the Leave campaign was to “take back control” of borders. The end of free movement between the UK and EU did reduce net migration from European countries, which fell sharply from its peak. However, overall net migration has risen because the UK has welcomed more workers from non‑EU nations to fill labour shortages in sectors such as elder care. Recent visa rule adjustments aimed at meeting these labour demands have contributed to the increase, illustrating the complex trade‑offs inherent in post‑Brexit immigration policy.
Rise of Irregular Channel Crossings and Public Reaction
Despite declining legal migration from Europe, the UK has witnessed a surge in people attempting to reach its shores via small boats across the English Channel, often fleeing conflict zones like Afghanistan and Sudan. The number of such crossings peaked at 46,000 in 2022 and remained high at 41,000 last year. Although these figures represent a small fraction of total migration, they have become a flashpoint for public anger, with protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers and occasional attempts to set fire to accommodations. The humanitarian and political challenges posed by Channel crossings continue to dominate debate.
Political Landscape After Brexit
The aftermath of Brexit has fractured Britain’s traditional party system. Support for the long‑dominant Conservatives and Labour has waned, culminating in the Conservatives’ ejection from power in 2024 after 14 years in office. The Labour government that followed has struggled to inspire confidence, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is rumoured to be considering resignation. Meanwhile, Reform UK, led by Brexit‑campaign veteran Nigel Farage, has gained traction, leading in most opinion polls for over a year and attracting voters disillusioned with the mainstream parties.
Voter Sentiment and Desire to Rejoin EU
Polling data reveals a significant shift in public opinion since the referendum. Ipsos surveys show that 52 % of Britons would like to rejoin the EU, while only 33 % oppose the idea. Furthermore, 48 % believe Brexit is turning out worse than expected, compared with just 9 % who think it is better than anticipated. Nearly half of respondents (48 %) support holding another referendum on EU membership today, underscoring widespread regret and a desire for a potential reversal of the 2016 decision.
Labour’s Delicate Position and Prospects for a Reset
The Labour Party, having explicitly ruled out reversing Brexit or rejoining the EU’s single market, faces limited manoeuvring room. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has advocated a “reset” of UK‑EU relations, aiming to ease trade frictions and rebuild trust eroded during the Brexit negotiations. He hopes to announce concrete measures at an upcoming EU summit, contingent on his political survival. Potential successors, such as Andy Burnham, have echoed this cautious approach, affirming respect for the 2016 referendum while seeking pragmatic improvements to bilateral ties without overturning the Brexit outcome.
Conclusion: Uncertain Future for UK‑EU Relations
A decade on, Brexit’s legacy is a mix of unfulfilled economic promises, reshaped immigration dynamics, and a politically volatile environment. While the UK remains economically intertwined with the EU, new barriers have tempered the anticipated gains, and public sentiment leans toward reconsidering the decision. The path forward will depend on whether the current government can negotiate a meaningful reset that addresses trade inefficiencies and immigration concerns without abandoning the core principle of regained sovereignty that motivated the original Leave vote. Until then, the UK’s relationship with Europe remains a work in progress, shaped by competing visions of national autonomy and economic prosperity.