Key Takeaways:
- China’s air force is now a significant threat to the US and Western counterparts in the Indo-Pacific region, with advanced capabilities and technology.
- The Chinese military has developed long-range missiles and stealth fighter jets, including the J-20, which could challenge US air superiority.
- The US still has technically advanced jets, but China’s modernizing military technology and production capabilities are rapidly closing the gap.
- A potential conflict over Taiwan could be complicated by China’s growing military capabilities and the US’s limited resources in the region.
- Other nations in the Indo-Pacific, such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, are taking steps to improve their air forces, but are still lagging behind China’s modernization efforts.
Introduction to China’s Air Force Capabilities
China’s air force has long been considered inferior to that of the US, but a new report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggests that this is no longer the case. The report states that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now fields a range of capabilities that can threaten US air force aerial refueling tankers, US Navy carrier groups, and forward air bases at a distance of 1,000 kilometers or more. This includes thousands of long-range ground-based, air-launched, and maritime ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range ground-based surface-to-air missiles and long-range air-to-air weapons carried by hundreds of advanced fifth-generation fighters.
China’s Modernizing Military Technology
China’s domestic production of the J-20 stealth fighter jet has exceeded 120 planes per year, more than double the number of US purchases of the similar F-35 aircraft. The report’s author, Justin Bronk, estimates that there will be 1,000 jets operating in the Chinese fleet by 2030. Dr. William Matthews, an independent researcher and consultant specializing in China, notes that China is modernizing its fleet at a faster pace than the US, including indigenizing the production of components such as advanced engines. This could potentially allow China to overtake the US as the world’s leader in advanced combat aircraft.
US Air Force Capabilities
Despite Beijing’s efforts, the top US jets are still technically more advanced than China’s, according to Dr. Williams. The US has a range of advanced aircraft, including the F-35 fighter jet, which is considered the US Air Force’s most advanced. The US also has a significant advantage in terms of combat experience, with the US Air Force having extensive experience in combat operations, whereas the PLAAF has none. However, Dr. Williams notes that the balance is increasingly tipping away from the US, as the PLAAF would be committing most of its resources to a conflict, whereas the US would be allocating part of its resources to the region.
China’s Missile Inventory
China’s modernizing missile inventory is a significant concern for the US and its allies. The PL-15 and PL-17 air-to-air missiles have a range that significantly out-ranges not just Russian but also American and European equivalents. A recent example of the effectiveness of these missiles was seen in the battle between Pakistani and Indian air forces last year, where a Chinese-built PL-15 shot down a French-made Rafael jet. China is also developing ultra-long-range missiles with ranges of 2,000 kilometers or more, which could potentially threaten US air force assets in the region.
Implications for Taiwan
The implications of China’s growing military capabilities for Taiwan are significant. In any attempt to take Taiwan, Beijing would focus on protecting ships taking troops to the island and hitting targets that threaten its operation. The PLA’s new inventory would make it more difficult for US and allied forces to enter and operate in the theater of war, and especially to get close enough to attack PLA Navy ships or ground targets in China. China could also use drones to exhaust Taiwan’s air defense systems, making it easier to seize the island.
Indo-Pacific Efforts
Other nations in the Indo-Pacific region, including Australia, Japan, and South Korea, have taken significant steps to improve their air forces in recent years. Combined, the three countries have 159 fifth-generation jets available to them, with Japan expecting delivery of 120 more F-35s in the near future. The US has 600 fifth-generation aircraft at its disposal. However, despite these efforts, the pace of the PLA’s modernization efforts is still outpacing that of its rivals. The US is moving to enhance its detection technology so it can pick up aircraft like China’s J-20 earlier, and is also investing billions of dollars into strengthening its regional bases, early warning systems, and the integration with allied forces across the region.
Conclusion
In conclusion, China’s air force is now a significant threat to the US and Western counterparts in the Indo-Pacific region, with advanced capabilities and technology. The US still has technically advanced jets, but China’s modernizing military technology and production capabilities are rapidly closing the gap. A potential conflict over Taiwan could be complicated by China’s growing military capabilities and the US’s limited resources in the region. Other nations in the Indo-Pacific are taking steps to improve their air forces, but are still lagging behind China’s modernization efforts. The US and its allies must continue to invest in their military capabilities and work together to counter the growing threat posed by China’s air force.
