Key Takeaways
- A group of experts in AI and online misinformation has warned that swarms of human-imitating AI agents could be used to reshape public opinion and undermine democracy.
- These AI swarms could be used to persuade populations to accept cancelled elections or overturn results, and could be deployed at scale by the time of the US presidential election in 2028.
- The experts are calling for coordinated global action to counter the risk, including the development of "swarm scanners" and watermarked content to counter AI-run misinformation campaigns.
- The use of AI-powered influence operations has already been seen in the 2024 elections in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia.
- The experts warn that the threat is being supercharged by advances in AIs’ ability to pick up on the tone and content of discourse, and to mimic human dynamics.
Introduction to the Threat of AI Swarms
A high-profile group of experts in AI and online misinformation has warned that political leaders could soon launch swarms of human-imitating AI agents to reshape public opinion in a way that threatens to undermine democracy. The Nobel peace prize-winning free-speech activist Maria Ressa, and leading AI and social science researchers from Berkeley, Harvard, Oxford, Cambridge, and Yale are among a global consortium flagging the new "disruptive threat" posed by hard-to-detect, malicious "AI swarms" infesting social media and messaging channels. A would-be autocrat could use such swarms to persuade populations to accept cancelled elections or overturn results, they said, amid predictions the technology could be deployed at scale by the time of the US presidential election in 2028.
The Capabilities of AI Swarms
The warnings, published in Science, come alongside calls for coordinated global action to counter the risk, including "swarm scanners" and watermarked content to counter AI-run misinformation campaigns. Early versions of AI-powered influence operations have been used in the 2024 elections in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia. The experts behind the warning say that political leaders could deploy almost limitless numbers of AIs to masquerade as humans online and precisely infiltrate communities, learn their foibles over time, and use increasingly convincing and carefully tailored falsehoods to change population-wide opinions. The threat is being supercharged by advances in AIs’ ability to pick up on the tone and content of discourse, and to mimic human dynamics.
The Use of AI Swarms in Real-World Scenarios
The use of AI-powered influence operations has already been seen in the 2024 elections in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia. In Taiwan, where voters are regularly targeted by Chinese propaganda, often unknowingly, AI bots have been increasing engagement with citizens on Threads and Facebook in the last two to three months. During discussions on political topics, the AIs tend to provide "tonnes of information that you cannot verify", creating "information overload". The AIs might cite fake articles about how America will abandon Taiwan, or stress to younger Taiwanese people that the China-Taiwan dispute is very complicated "so do not take sides if you have no knowledge". This is very dangerous, because then people think that those who are against China are radical.
Expert Assessment of the Threat
Amid signs the progress of AI technology is not as rapid as Silicon Valley companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have claimed, the Guardian asked independent AI experts to assess the swarm warnings. "In the election-heavy year of 2024, the capabilities were there for AI-driven microtargeting but we didn’t see as much of that as scholars predicted," said Inga Trauthig, an adviser to the International Panel on the Information Environment. "Most political propagandists I interview are still using older technologies and are not at this cutting edge." However, Michael Wooldridge, professor of the foundations of AI at Oxford University, said: "I think it is entirely plausible that bad actors will try to mobilise virtual armies of LLM-powered agents to disrupt elections and manipulate public opinion, for example targeting large numbers of individuals on social media and other electronic media. It’s technologically perfectly feasible … the technology has got progressively better and much more accessible."
Conclusion and Call to Action
The warnings from the group of experts in AI and online misinformation are clear: the use of AI swarms to reshape public opinion and undermine democracy is a real and present threat. The experts are calling for coordinated global action to counter the risk, including the development of "swarm scanners" and watermarked content to counter AI-run misinformation campaigns. It is essential that governments, tech companies, and civil society organizations work together to address this threat and ensure that the integrity of democratic processes is protected. The use of AI-powered influence operations is a serious threat to democracy, and it is crucial that we take action to prevent it.