Image Source: Michael Cohen
Key Takeaways
- The College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami is a matchup that was predicted by some three months ago
- Indiana and Miami have both had impressive seasons, with the Hoosiers receiving three first-place votes and the Hurricanes receiving 13 first-place votes in Week 8 of the AP Poll
- The game may come down to coaching, with Indiana having a significant edge in that department
- The Hoosiers have a strong record in terms of penalties and special teams competency, ranking second in penalty yards per game and fifth in FEI Special Teams Ratings
- Indiana may have advantages at several positions, including quarterback, wide receiver, interior defensive line, linebacker, perimeter cornerback, and safety
Introduction to the Championship Game
The College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami is just around the corner, and it’s worth looking back at how these two teams have performed throughout the season. As Michael Cohen notes, "For as remarkable as this year’s national championship game might seem on paper, it didn’t seem all that farfetched for a brief period of time three months ago. These are, and always have been, really good teams." In Week 8 of the AP Poll, Miami was ranked No. 2 in the nation, with Indiana close behind at No. 3. The Hurricanes had assembled a strong résumé, with wins over several top-ranked teams, including Notre Dame, Florida State, and South Florida.
Assessing the Teams’ Strengths
As Cohen points out, if we assume that the overall talent levels for Miami and Indiana are equal, the game may come down to coaching. In this scenario, Indiana has a significant edge, with a strong record in terms of penalties and special teams competency. The Hoosiers average the second-fewest penalty yards per game of any team in the country, and they rank fifth nationally in FEI Special Teams Ratings. As Cohen notes, "Teams with strong metrics in those two categories are usually disciplined, precise and employ a heightened attention to detail in areas of the game that are quite easy to overlook." This attention to detail is evident in Indiana’s performance, including their ability to block a punt in their blowout win over Oregon.
Coaching and Team Performance
Miami, on the other hand, has struggled in these areas, ranking 85th in penalty yards per game and 46th in FEI Special Teams Ratings. This suggests that the Hoosiers are a better-coached team, with a greater emphasis on discipline and attention to detail. As Cohen notes, "Penalties and special teams competency are two tried-and-true indicators of how well-coached any given football program really is." Indiana’s coaching edge, combined with their strong performance in these areas, gives them an excellent chance to complete their dream season.
Positional Advantages
In addition to their coaching edge, Indiana may also have advantages at several positions, including quarterback, wide receiver, interior defensive line, linebacker, perimeter cornerback, and safety. As Cohen notes, "In reality, the Hoosiers might have advantages at quarterback, wide receiver, interior defensive line, linebacker, perimeter cornerback and safety." These positional advantages, combined with their strong coaching and team performance, make Indiana a strong contender for the national championship.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on these factors, Cohen predicts that Indiana will win the national championship game. As he notes, "So when push comes to shove, when the ball is finally kicked on Monday night, neither the playing field nor the coaching will be level. And that’s why Indiana has an excellent chance to complete its dream season." With their strong coaching, team performance, and positional advantages, Indiana is well-positioned to take home the championship title. As Cohen concludes, "Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that the overall talent levels for Miami and Indiana are equal. That even with wildly contrasting roster compositions — the Hurricanes have 45 former four- and five-star prospects; the Hoosiers only have seven — the lineups taking the field on Monday night can be thought of as mirror images of each other when it comes to skill, health and overall football intelligence. Player for player, everything is equal. Instead, amid this particular exercise, the national championship game comes down to nothing more than coaching. A significant edge for the Hoosiers."
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