Key Takeaways
- Ipsos and SRF polls show the ANC’s national support falling to the low‑30 % range, while no single opposition party has yet overtaken it, signalling a fragmented electorate rather than a simple ANC‑to‑DA shift.
- The DA is projected to lose its outright majority in Cape Town and to remain a steady but not dominant force; the MK party is the only group forecast to win an outright metro majority (eThekwini).
- Experts describe the trend as “dynamic fragmentation,” warning that hung councils and scrambled coalition talks are increasingly likely in South Africa’s major metros.
- Polling limitations—low voter‑interest figures, turnout models, and potential researcher bias—mean the numbers should be read as indicative trends rather than precise predictions.
- Across the metros, service‑delivery crises persist: massive water and electricity losses, ageing infrastructure, and growing housing backlogs accompany qualified or unqualified audits that raise doubts about municipal fiscal sustainability.
Overview of Recent Polling Data
Ipsos’ “Pulse of the People” survey released on 4 September 2026 predicts the ANC’s national support will slip to just 31 %, a sharp drop from the 45.6 % it secured in the 2021 local elections. In parallel, polls by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) dated 9 September reveal a fragmented black vote: the ANC at 36 %, the newly formed Umkhonto weSizwe party (MK) at 24 %, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 13 %, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 12 %, and smaller parties collectively at 15 %. A separate SRF likely‑voter model placed the ANC at 34 %, the DA at 27 %, MK at 15 %, and the EFF at 7 %, with a 2.1 % margin of error. These figures collectively illustrate a weakening ANC dominance without a clear successor party gaining comparable strength.
Expert Interpretation of the Fragmentation Trend
Dr Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer in history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University, cautions against reading the ANC’s decline as a straightforward transfer of votes to the DA. He labels the pattern “dynamic fragmentation,” wherein the ANC’s hegemony erodes while no rival party consolidates enough support to mount a decisive challenge. The DA’s gradual rise remains constrained, preventing it from translating polling gains into a decisive electoral shift. Mtimka warns that this environment raises the probability of hung councils and intense scrambles for coalition partnerships across the metros.
Methodological Caveats and Voter‑Engagement Concerns
Both Ipsos and SRF acknowledge that their results hinge on turnout assumptions and respondent interest. In the Ipsos poll, only a third of respondents said they were “very interested” in elections, with 34 % reporting low interest and the remainder lukewarm. The SRF warned that raw‑day responses could diverge once voter turnout is factored in. Additionally, Joel Netshitenzhe of the Mapungubwe Institute argued in a Daily Maverick opinion piece that poll interpretation can be swayed by researcher bias and that polls themselves can influence voter sentiment, potentially weaponising results to sway public opinion during campaigns.
National‑Level Party Standing
Aggregating the polling data, the ANC hovers around the low‑30 % bracket nationally, the DA stabilises in the mid‑20 % to high‑20 % range, and MK emerges as the third‑largest force with roughly 15 % support. The EFF lingers below 10 %, while a constellation of smaller parties captures the remaining share. This distribution means no party is poised to secure an outright national majority, reinforcing the likelihood of coalition governments at both provincial and municipal levels after the upcoming polls.
Buffalo City – Tight Three‑Way Race
Ipsos data shows Buffalo City as the most contested metro, with the DA leading at 33 %, the ANC at 29 %, and the EFF at 27 %. The ANC’s support has fallen dramatically from its 59.43 % outright majority in 2021. Potential mayoral candidates include ANC’s incumbent Princess Faku, former deputy minister Nocawe Mafu, Simphiwe Dzengwa, and Ncedo Kumbaca; the DA has named ward candidates but has yet to pick a mayoral nominee, while the EFF fields MP Mkhululi Dlevu. Financially, the Auditor‑General reported a R996 million deficit for 2024/25, with water losses of R187 million (41.4 % of supply) and electricity losses of R831 million (32.2 %). Up to 90 % of the electricity operational budget went to network repairs, and the housing backlog rose to 119 024 units.
Cape Town – DA’s Waning Stronghold
Although the DA remains the front‑runner in Cape Town with an expected 46 % share, this marks a steep decline from its 58.26 % in 2021. The ANC is projected at 26 %, the EFF at 11 %, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) at 8 %. Mayoral contenders include DA leader and incumbent mayor Geordin Hill‑Lewis, EFF MP Nontando Nolutshungu, and PA’s Cheslyn Daniels; the ANC has not yet confirmed its candidate. The Auditor‑General gave the city its first unqualified audit with findings since 2020/21, a regression from its previous clean‑audit streak. Water losses totalled R112 million (5.9 %) and electricity losses R772 million (11.2 %). The housing backlog remains high at over 400 000 units.
Ekurhuleni – ANC vs DA Battle
In Ekurhuleni, the ANC leads modestly at 24 % (down from 38.2 % in 2021) while the DA trails at 21 %; MK is forecast at 18 % and ActionSA at 13 %. Frontrunners for mayor include DA’s Khathutshelo Rasilingwane, MK’s Thulani Shongwe, and ActionSA’s Xolani Khumalo. The ANC’s possible slate features incumbent mayor Nkosindiphile Xhakaza, finance‑strategy MMC Jongizizwe Dlabathi, council whip Pelisa Nkunjana, and Ntombi Mekgwe. The Auditor‑General issued a qualified audit, citing doubt about the city’s ability to continue operating, a deficit of R656 million, and maintenance spend of R2.59 billion (4.2 % of PPE). Water losses reached R1.27 billion (25.4 %) and electricity losses R3.07 billion (15.5 %). The housing backlog exceeds 283 000 units.
Johannesburg – Fragmented Contenders
Johannesburg remains the most hotly contested metro, with the ANC projected at 31 % (down from 36 % in 2021), the DA at 28 %, ActionSA at 14 %, and the EFF at 8 %. A separate SRF snapshot for Q2 2026 showed the DA leading at 42 %, the ANC at 18 %, and MK at 13 %, while raw‑day data indicated MK’s support concentrated among black voters at 28 %. Mayoral hopefuls comprise the DA’s Helen Zille, ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba, and the EFF’s Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng; the ANC has yet to name a candidate. The Auditor‑General gave a qualified audit, noting weak financial controls and poor record‑keeping. The city recorded R2.3 billion in debt, spent only R166 million on maintenance (0.3 % of PPE), suffered water losses of R2.82 billion (44.8 %) and electricity losses of R5.67 billion (30 %). The housing backlog tops 431 000 units.
Tshwane – DA’s Edge, Coalition Prospects
The DA is predicted to maintain a lead in Tshwane at 31 % versus the ANC’s 22 %, with ActionSA at 11 % and the EFF at 9 %. SRF’s July 2026 model suggested a DA‑FF+ coalition could emerge if the DA holds 42 %, the ANC 32 %, FF+ 8 %, and ActionSA 7 %. Potential mayoral candidates include former DA mayor Cilliers Brink, ActionSA’s incumbent mayor Dr Nasiphi Moya, FF+ candidate Willie Spies, and EFF treasurer‑general Omphile Maotwe; the ANC remains unconfirmed. The Auditor‑General issued a qualified opinion, citing R1.70 billion in water losses (39 %), R3.27 billion in electricity losses (21 %), and a housing backlog exceeding 508 685 units.
eThekwini – MK’s Projected Majority
Ipsos forecasts MK to secure an outright majority in eThekwini with 55 % of the vote, relegating the ANC to third place at 10 % and the DA to second at 17 %; the IFP follows at 6 %. SRF’s outlook is more modest, predicting MK at 33 %, DA at 23 %, ANC at 18 %, and IFP at 16 %. Mayoral contenders feature MK’s Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi, the DA’s Haniff Hoosen, and the IFP’s Mkhuleko Hlengwa; the ANC’s possible list includes incumbent mayor Cyril Xaba, Nomusa Dube‑Ncube, Mina Soma‑Lesoma, Thabani Everson Nyawose, and Maggie Govender. The city received an unqualified audit for 2024/25, spending R3.26 billion on infrastructure (5.2 % of PPE). Water losses amounted to R2.91 billion (58.7 %) and electricity losses to R1.91 billion (11.2 %). The housing backlog exceeds 474 000 units.
Mangaung – Declining ANC Stronghold
Once a reliable ANC bastion, Mangaung is now projected to be a neck‑and‑neck contest, with the DA leading at 36 %, the ANC at 32 %, the EFF at 17 %, and MK at 5 %. This represents a steep drop from the ANC’s 50.63 % in 2021. Potential candidates include DA MP Werner Pretorius, EFF MP Sam Matiase, and MK’s Mapaseka Mothibi; the ANC has yet to finalise its nominee. The Auditor‑General gave an unqualified audit but highlighted technical insolvency, noting the municipality spent only R272.5 million on infrastructure maintenance (2.1 % of PPE), lost 48 % of its water (R495.55 million), and did not disclose electricity losses. The housing backlog is predicted to exceed 77 000 units.
Nelson Mandela Bay – Predicted Tie
Polling data suggests a deadlock between the ANC and DA, each at 37 %, with the EFF at 8 % and ActionSA and the PA tied for fourth at 5 %. Mayoral hopefuls are former DA mayor Retief Odendaal and EFF’s Sinawo Thambo; neither the PA nor ActionSA has announced a candidate. The ANC’s possible slate contains Andile Lungisa (noted for a 2016 glass‑jar assault), the controversial incumbent mayor Babalwa Lobishe, Xolani Vela, and Ntombi Nama. The Auditor‑General issued a qualified audit, citing a deficit of R150 million, underspending of infrastructure grants by over 10 %, and maintenance spend of only 2.5 % of PPE. Water losses totalled R392.56 million (52.7 %) and electricity losses R1.48 billion (26.8 %). The housing backlog exceeds 100 000 units.
Service‑Delivery Challenges and Fiscal Outlook Across Metros
A common thread emerges from the Auditor‑General’s reports: severe water and electricity losses, ageing infrastructure, and inadequate maintenance spending. Most metros allocate a fraction of their property, plant and equipment budgets to upkeep—often below 5 %—while losses exceed 20 % of supply in many cases. Housing backlogs remain stubbornly high, ranging from roughly 77 000 units in Mangaung to over 508 000 in Tshwane. Qualified audits in Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay signal doubts about ongoing financial viability, whereas Buffalo City, Cape Town, and eThekwini received unqualified opinions but still exhibit troubling loss metrics. These fiscal strains compound the political fragmentation, as parties must now navigate coalition negotiations while addressing urgent service‑delivery crises that directly affect voter livelihoods.
Implications for Governance and Future Elections
The convergence of declining ANC dominance, a fragmented opposition landscape, and persistent service‑delivery failures suggests that South Africa’s metropolitan politics are entering an era of heightened uncertainty. Hung councils are increasingly probable, compelling parties to form precarious coalitions that may be unstable or policy‑paralysed. For voters, the immediate concern remains the reliability of basic services; for parties, the challenge lies in translating polling support into effective governance amid limited fiscal space. Unless structural reforms address infrastructure decay, revenue leakage, and administrative capacity, the electoral volatility reflected in current polls could translate into recurring cycles of protest, low turnout, and further erosion of public trust in local government. Continued monitoring of polling methodology, voter engagement, and audit outcomes will be essential to gauge whether the observed fragmentation stabilises into a new party system or deepens into governance paralysis.