Key Takeaways
- The latest Ipsos Pulse of the People omnibus poll shows a tight race between the ANC and DA in four major metros, with the ANC leading narrowly in Johannesburg (31% vs 27%) and the DA ahead in Tshwane (31% vs 22%).
- Nationally, the ANC holds 31% support, the DA 25%, the newly‑risen MK party 14% (now South Africa’s third‑largest party), the EFF 11%, Action SA 6%, IFP 3% and the Patriotic Alliance 2%.
- MK is projected to win eThekwini with 55% support, while the ANC’s strength remains rural, polling highest in Limpopo (58%) and the Eastern Cape (56%).
- The DA dominates the Western Cape and is now also ahead of the ANC in the Free State, a province plagued by poor service delivery.
- Voter‑turnout intentions are rising, especially in metros, but a significant share of registered voters say they will not vote, a concern for all parties.
- The poll’s margin of error is ±1.77 % for the full sample at a 95 % confidence level; smaller provincial and metro samples have larger errors, so some figures should be treated as indicative.
Overview of Ipsos Pulse Poll Results
The Ipsos Pulse of the People omnibus, conducted among 3,500 respondents via in‑home interviews, asked participants which party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow. The national snapshot places the African National Congress (ANC) at 31 %, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 25 %, and the newly emerged uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party at 14 %, marking MK as South Africa’s third‑largest party. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) follow with 11 %, Action SA at 6 %, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 3 % and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) at 2 %. Both the DA and PA contend that Ipsos under‑polls their true support, a point that will be revisited when examining metro‑level data.
Provincial Breakdown
Provincially, the ANC’s traditional rural strongholds are evident: it leads in Limpopo with 58 % and in the Eastern Cape with 56 %. Conversely, the DA maintains its expected dominance in the Western Cape and has now surpassed the ANC in the Free State, a province where service‑delivery failures have eroded ANC support. The EFF is making noticeable inroads into Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape, while Action SA shows strength in Gauteng. The IFP remains largely confined to KwaZulu‑Natal (KZN), and the PA finds a niche in the Western Cape. These patterns underscore a shifting electoral map where historic ANC bastions are weakening in urban centres while gaining or holding ground in rural areas.
Metropolitan Hotspots
In the four metros where the ANC and DA are locked in a close contest—Ipsos identifies Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City—the race is statistically tight. Johannesburg shows the ANC at 31 % versus the DA’s Helen Zille‑aligned 27 %. In Tshwane (Pretoria), the DA flips the script, leading with 31 % against the ANC’s 22 %. Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City each display margins within the poll’s error range, indicating that either party could prevail depending on turnout and campaign effectiveness. By contrast, eThekwini (Durban) is projected to be a clear MK victory, with 55 % of respondents favoring the party linked to former president Jacob Zuma.
Party Performance in Key Regions
The DA’s success in Tshwane and its steady performance in Johannesburg suggest that its urban outreach is gaining traction, especially among voters dissatisfied with ANC service delivery. Action SA’s 6 % national figure belies a stronger showing in Gauteng metros, where it could act as a king‑maker in tightly contested wards. The MK party’s concentration in KZN—particularly eThekwini—highlights a regional protest vote that may not translate nationally but could decisively affect provincial outcomes. The EFF’s 11 % national share reflects steady growth in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape, areas where youth unemployment and land‑reform rhetoric resonate. Meanwhile, the IFP’s 3 % remains largely KZN‑based, and the PA’s 2 % indicates a modest but potentially influential presence in the Western Cape, particularly among coloured voters.
Voter Turnout and Intentions
A notable finding from the poll is the rising intention to vote, especially within metropolitan areas, despite registration numbers falling short of earlier hopes. Harris of Ipsos observes that while incumbent parties often suffer lower turnout on local election days, opposition voters tend to be more motivated to cast their ballots. This dynamic could benefit the DA, Action SA and smaller parties that rely on energised bases to overcome the ANC’s structural advantages. However, the proportion of registered voters declaring they will not vote remains “extremely relevant” to all aspirant councillors, signalling that voter apathy—or deliberate boycott—could still shape results if not addressed through targeted mobilisation.
Margin of Error and Methodology
Ipsos provides a detailed margin‑of‑error analysis: for the full sample of registered voters, the maximum error at a 95 % confidence level and a 50 % response rate is ±1.77 %. When respondents who say they will not vote are excluded and the data are broken down by province or metro, the effective sample sizes shrink, increasing the error margins. The accompanying table (not reproduced here) shows larger uncertainties for smaller subsamples, meaning that figures for provinces such as the Free State or metros like Buffalo City should be interpreted as indicative rather than definitive. Ipsos advises readers to treat orange‑coded findings as indicative and red‑coded ones as requiring caution.
Strategic Implications for Parties
With roughly two months remaining before the 4 November local government elections, parties have a narrow window to convert polling intentions into actual votes. The DA’s internal polls corroborate the Ipsos trend in Tshwane and suggest that a focused campaign on service delivery, governance and urban safety could solidify its gains in Gauteng metros. The ANC, while still dominant nationally, must arrest its urban decline by revitalising grassroots mobilisation and addressing the rural‑urban perception gap. MK’s concentrated strength in KZN offers a potential king‑maker role in provincial coalitions, though its limited national footprint restricts broader influence. Action SA’s Gauteng presence could prove decisive in hung councils, while the EFF’s steady rise in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape may enable it to negotiate power‑sharing arrangements. Ultimately, voter turnout—particularly the motivation of opposition supporters—will be the decisive factor, making get‑out‑the‑vote efforts as crucial as the policy messages themselves.