Key Takeaways:
- Winston Peters and New Zealand First are experiencing a surge in support, with Peters attracting 12.6% support as preferred prime minister.
- The party’s support has increased despite a general backdrop of pessimism and disenchantment with the current government.
- NZ First is differentiating itself from its governing partners and the government as a whole, with Peters criticizing the government’s performance and opposing certain policies.
- Labour has also lifted in the polls, securing its position as the country’s most popular party, but its friends on the left, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, have endured terrible terms.
- The election is still a long way off, and much could change before November, with improving economic forecasts potentially influencing voter decisions.
Introduction to the Poll Results
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has brought good news for Winston Peters and New Zealand First. The party has surged to 12.6% support, its highest score in the series since July 2017, and Peters is now within seven points of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister. This is the second poll in a matter of days to show a significant increase in support for NZ First, following a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll that had the party on 12%. The latest poll results are a welcome boost for Peters, who has been known to claim little regard for polls.
The Surge in Support for NZ First
The surge in support for NZ First is all the more remarkable given the general backdrop of pessimism and disenchantment with the current government. Only 36.3% of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction, and a convincing majority say they’re finding it harder to cope with the cost of living than a year ago. Typically, these sort of results would indicate a classic change election, with frustrated voters looking for an alternative to those currently in power. However, despite the sour mood, the coalition has increased its overall support since the last RNZ-Reid Research poll and retains majority support, thanks in large part to NZ First.
Differentiation from Governing Partners
NZ First’s success can be attributed to its ability to differentiate itself from its governing partners and the government as a whole. Peters has been successful in criticizing the government’s performance and opposing certain policies, such as the India free trade deal and National’s flirtation with asset sales. This has reminded voters of Peters’ anti-establishment and populist instincts, which are resonating with disenchanted voters. The party’s supporters are struggling far more than their National and ACT counterparts, with six in 10 saying they’re finding the cost of living harder to manage than in January last year. As a result, they are looking to NZ First for a change in direction, rather than the opposition parties.
Labour’s Performance
It’s not just NZ First that’s experiencing a surge in support. Labour has also lifted in the polls, securing its position as the country’s most popular party. This is the party’s fourth consecutive increase, and it would secure an extra nine MPs if the election were held today. Labour’s momentum has not stalled, despite the arrival of its capital gains tax, and it’s likely that the party will continue to be a major player in the election. However, Labour’s friends on the left, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, have endured terrible terms, with the Greens’ support slipping away and Te Pāti Māori experiencing infighting and turmoil.
The Road to the Election
The election is still a long way off, and much could change before November. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is hoping that improving economic forecasts will have come to fruition by then, and that voters will migrate back to National from either Labour or NZ First. However, the polls are not shifting around dramatically, with every pollster telling effectively the same story: a tight race, tipping marginally one way or the other. This stasis may well represent a lack of engagement, meaning the numbers could shift around as November draws closer and voters start to pay more attention. As the election approaches, it will be interesting to see how the parties respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by the poll results.
