Key Takeaways
- A clear majority of voters remain unconvinced that replacing either Christopher Luxon (National) or Chris Hipkins (Labour) would improve their parties’ election prospects, although support for a leadership change has risen over the past year.
- Among National supporters, Nicola Willis is the most favoured alternative leader, while Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford also receive notable backing; however, a large share of respondents could not name a preferred successor.
- For Labour, Kieran McAnulty is the only frontbench MP to attract double‑digit support as a potential replacement, with more than half of respondents unsure who should lead the party instead.
- Personal approval ratings for both leaders have improved modestly since their March lows, with Luxon’s net score rising from –20.6 to –12.8 and Hipkins’ net score moving from –0.3 to +0.4.
- The poll indicates growing openness to a leadership shake‑up, yet skepticism still dominates, suggesting that any party considering a change would need to address broader voter concerns beyond simply swapping the figurehead.
Overview of the RNZ‑Reid Research Poll Findings
The latest RNZ‑Reid Research survey gauged voter sentiment toward the leadership of New Zealand’s two major parties, National and Labour, amid ongoing speculation about the futures of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Opposition Leader Chris Hipkins. Respondents were asked whether a change at the helm would improve each party’s chances of winning the next general election, and, if so, which current frontbench MP they would prefer as a successor. The results reveal a nuanced picture: while a growing minority believes a new leader could be beneficial, a substantial proportion remains doubtful or undecided, indicating that leadership alone is not seen as a panacea for electoral challenges.
National Voters’ Attitudes Toward a Leadership Change
When asked if National would be better placed to win an election with a different leader, 31.9 percent answered affirmatively, 44.7 percent disagreed, and 23.4 percent expressed uncertainty. Compared with the September poll, support for a switch‑up has risen from 24.7 percent to 31.9 percent, while opposition has softened slightly from 41.9 percent to 44.7 percent. The shift suggests that a segment of the electorate is becoming more receptive to the idea that fresh leadership might revitalise National’s appeal, yet a clear majority still either opposes the notion or lacks sufficient information to form a firm view.
Preferred Successors Within National’s Frontbench
Among those who believed a change could help, respondents were asked to name their preferred alternative from National’s current frontbench. Chris Bishop garnered the highest support at 13.7 percent, followed closely by Nicola Willis at 12.5 percent and Erica Stanford at 11.0 percent. Notably, 42.2 percent of all respondents could not identify any specific MP they would back as a replacement, underscoring a lack of consensus or familiarity with potential candidates. When the analysis is limited to National voters alone, Nicola Willis emerges as the clear favourite, attracting 26.0 percent support, while Bishop and Stanford receive 14.4 percent and 12.6 percent respectively; about 28.0 percent of National supporters said they did not know who should lead the party.
Labour Voters’ Views on Replacing Hipkins
Labour respondents displayed a similar pattern when questioned about the impact of a leadership change. Only 29.7 percent believed a new leader would boost Labour’s election chances, 43.0 percent disagreed, and 27.4 percent were unsure. Although these figures show modest growth since September—when 24.9 percent favoured a change, 42.9 percent opposed it, and 32.2 percent were undecided—the majority still regard retaining Hipkins as the preferable option. The data suggest that while some Labour supporters are open to alternatives, skepticism remains prevalent across the electorate.
Potential Labour Successors Identified
When asked to nominate a preferred replacement from Labour’s frontbench, Kieran McAnulty received the strongest backing at 16.2 percent, with Megan Woods trailing at 6.0 percent. A striking 52.0 percent of respondents indicated they did not know who should lead Labour instead, reflecting either limited awareness of the party’s bench depth or a reluctance to endorse any specific figure. This uncertainty mirrors the situation in National, where a substantial proportion of voters could not pinpoint a favoured successor.
Personal Approval Ratings of Luxon and Hipkins
The poll also tracked personal performance ratings for the two leaders. Christopher Luxon’s approval as prime minister rose to 34.4 percent, an increase of 4.6 points from his March low, while disapproval fell to 47.2 percent, a decline of 3.2 points. Consequently, Luxon’s net performance score improved from –20.6 to –12.8, signalling a meaningful, though still negative, shift in voter sentiment. Chris Hipkins fared slightly better as opposition leader, with approval climbing to 37.4 percent (+1.5 points) and disapproval rising to 37.0 percent (+1.4 points), yielding a net rating of +0.4, up just 0.1 point from March. Both leaders have thus seen modest rebounds in their personal standing, yet neither has achieved a positive net approval rating.
Trends Over Time and Comparative Interpretation
Comparing the current results with those from September reveals a clear trend: openness to a leadership change has grown for both parties, while outright opposition has remained relatively stable. For National, the proportion of voters who think a new leader would help rose by 7.2 percentage points; for Labour, the increase was 4.8 points. Simultaneously, the share of respondents who are unsure has decreased slightly for National (from 33.4 percent to 23.4 percent) but increased for Labour (from 32.2 percent to 27.4 percent), indicating differing levels of certainty among the electorates. The improving personal approval scores for Luxon and Hipkins suggest that voter dissatisfaction may be less about the individuals themselves and more about broader party direction, policy perception, or external factors such as economic conditions and public health concerns.
Implications for Party Strategy
The poll’s findings carry strategic implications for National and Labour. First, the persistent majority that doubts a leadership swap would boost electoral prospects cautions against assuming that a simple change of figurehead will automatically translate into votes. Parties may need to couple any leadership transition with clear policy renewals, improved communication, and demonstrable competence on issues voters prioritize. Second, the emergence of Nicola Willis as the favoured potential successor among National supporters—and Kieran McAnulty’s relative prominence within Labour—suggests that parties have identifiable internal figures who could rally support if they choose to pursue a change. However, the large share of respondents unable to name a preferred alternative highlights a potential risk: promoting a lesser‑known candidate without sufficient public exposure could fail to alleviate voter uncertainty.
Conclusion
In summary, the RNZ‑Reid Research poll paints a picture of a electorate that is gradually more open to the idea of leadership change yet remains largely unconvinced that such a move would, by itself, improve National’s or Labour’s chances at the ballot box. While both leaders have seen modest improvements in personal approval, the net sentiment remains negative for Luxon and barely positive for Hipkins. The data point to a nuanced voter base that values leadership but also looks for substantive policy direction and competence. Parties contemplating a shake‑up would be well‑served to weigh the desire for fresh faces against the need to address the deeper concerns that continue to shape voter preferences.