Key Takeaways
- The New Zealand general election will be held on November 7, with a long campaign period of approximately 290 days.
- The later election date may give the government more time to demonstrate the benefits of its policies and for voters to feel the economic recovery.
- The coalition parties are banking on an improvement in economic forecasts to feed through into confidence, optimism, and ultimately votes.
- The long campaign period also leaves plenty of time for things to go awry, either at home or abroad, and for internal coalition tensions to mount.
- The election date does not leave much time for negotiations to form a government before Christmas, with the potential for complicated arrangements.
Introduction to the Election Date
The announcement of the general election date by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has sparked a mix of reactions, with some drawing comparisons to the 2011 election when John Key surprised voters with an early announcement of a November election. This time, the election will be held on November 7, with a campaign period of approximately 290 days. While this may seem like a long time, it is not exceptional, as New Zealand has held elections in November before. However, it is on the later side of the ledger, and the long runway between now and polling day may have significant implications for the government and the opposition.
Motivations Behind the Election Date
When asked about his motivations for choosing the November date, Luxon danced around the question, calling it the "logical" choice given the options available on the calendar and various competing occasions. However, ACT’s leader and deputy prime minister David Seymour was more candid, stating that a later election gives the government more time for the emerging "green shoots" to fully bloom and for voters to feel the economic recovery in their wallets. This suggests that the coalition parties are banking on an improvement in economic forecasts to feed through into confidence, optimism, and ultimately votes. Treasury forecasts are picking GDP to pick up in the back half of the year, with unemployment beginning to trend down, which could provide a boost to the government’s chances of re-election.
Potential Risks and Challenges
However, the long campaign period also leaves plenty of time for things to go awry, either at home or abroad. The still-unfolding Greenland negotiations are a fresh reminder of how quickly overseas shocks can derail domestic recoveries. Additionally, the long runway allows more time for internal coalition tensions to mount, undermining Luxon’s claims on providing the "strongest, stablest form of government". The coalition parties will be under pressure to differentiate themselves throughout the year, which could lead to further tensions and conflicts. Furthermore, the persistent leadership murmurings and every day another chance for the various caucus factions to contemplate the polls and their futures could also create challenges for the government.
Implications for Government Formation
The election date of November 7 also has significant implications for the formation of a government after the election. The final results are not expected until 20 days after polling day, and in 2023 coalition talks dragged on for another 20 days beyond that. A similar timetable this year would push the finish line to around December 17, which is well into the festive season. This could create challenges for politicians and party staffers, who may have to cancel their Christmas plans to negotiate the formation of a government. Current polling points to a razor-sharp contest and the potential for more complicated arrangements than last time, which could further complicate the process.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the announcement of the general election date has significant implications for the government, the opposition, and the formation of a government after the election. While the coalition parties are banking on an improvement in economic forecasts to feed through into confidence, optimism, and ultimately votes, the long campaign period also leaves plenty of time for things to go awry. The potential risks and challenges, including internal coalition tensions, overseas shocks, and leadership murmurings, could create significant challenges for the government. Ultimately, the election date of November 7 will be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the election and the formation of a government after the election.
