Key Takeaways:
- International companies are investing in New Zealand, signaling stability and long-term potential
- Business confidence has jumped, with a nine-point increase in November, the highest level in 11 years
- The education system is showing remarkable gains, with improved focus, behavior, and achievement in schools that have implemented phone bans
- The benefits of phone bans are strongest in low-decile communities, with almost seven in 10 secondary school leaders reporting improved academic achievement
- Parents are the main reason students break phone rules during school hours, and need to model the boundary-setting they expect from their teenagers
- A maths acceleration trial has shown significant results, with students making the equivalent of two years’ progress in just 12 weeks
Introduction to a More Optimistic Outlook
As we head into summer, there is a sense of hope and possibility in the air. With the announcement of new international companies investing in New Zealand, including Ikea and Costco, it’s clear that the country is seen as a stable and promising market. The Official Cash Rate has also come down, and the new Reserve Bank governor, Anna Breman, is joining the team. These developments, combined with a jump in business confidence, suggest that things are looking up. According to ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner, "Things are looking up! Out of a hole, admittedly," she added, noting that base effects matter when asking whether things will go up or down from here.
A Shift in Business Confidence
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a significant increase in business confidence, with a nine-point jump in November, the highest level in 11 years. Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Christian Hawkesby also noted that there are signs of real momentum across the economy, stating that "There’s a whole host of small indicators that collectively give us confidence that we are not waiting for a recovery, it is happening right now." This shift in business confidence is a positive sign for the economy, and suggests that businesses are feeling more optimistic about the future.
The Bright Spot in Education
The education system is also showing remarkable gains, particularly in schools that have implemented phone bans. The Education Review Office’s independent evaluation of the Phones Away for the Day policy found that eight in 10 secondary teachers say removing phones has improved students’ focus, and nearly two-thirds say achievement has lifted. Behaviour has also improved, with over three-quarters of secondary teachers reporting better behaviour, and two-thirds of school leaders saying bullying has decreased. These results are not unique to New Zealand, with similar findings in US schools that have implemented phone bans.
The Equity Story
The benefits of phone bans are strongest in low-decile communities, with almost seven in 10 secondary school leaders reporting improved academic achievement, compared to four in 10 in high-decile schools. This suggests that phone bans are helping to level the playing field, and reduce the gap between low-decile and high-decile schools. The review also found that compliance is key, with consistent enforcement of the rules leading to higher levels of student compliance. However, the weakest point is compliance in Year 12 and 13, where fewer than four in 10 students consistently follow the rules.
The Role of Parents
Parents are the main reason students break phone rules during school hours, with three in five secondary school rule-breakers saying they do so to stay connected with their family. This highlights the need for parents to model the boundary-setting they expect from their teenagers, and to respect the school’s rules and policies. By doing so, parents can help their children develop independence, focus, and self-regulation during the school day. For example, when a fire broke out on the grounds of the author’s son’s school, the parents resisted the urge to call their son, instead waiting for the school to communicate with them. This approach allowed the son to develop a sense of independence and self-reliance, and to focus on his schoolwork without distractions.
The Maths Acceleration Trial
A maths acceleration trial has shown significant results, with students making the equivalent of two years’ progress in just 12 weeks. The trial, which involved over 100 schools and 13,000 students, found that in-person tutoring was the most effective method, with students building rapport with their tutors and arriving motivated and confident. The programme worked for everyone, regardless of gender, ethnicity, or socio-economic background, and lifted students without widening gaps. This is a powerful example of evidence-based policy in action, and demonstrates the potential for targeted interventions to make a significant impact on student outcomes.
Breaking the Post-Covid Pessimism
New Zealand has developed a habit of defaulting to pessimism, a reflex that has only hardened since Covid. However, the evidence tells a different story, with signs of momentum in the economy, education, and communities. Ram raids have fallen sharply, consumer confidence is edging back, and business investment is lifting. The same momentum is clear in education, with reforms taking hold, youth crime dropping, and the Phones Away for the Day policy changing behaviour. By recognizing and building on this momentum, we can create a more positive and optimistic outlook for the future.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the future of New Zealand. With international companies investing in the country, business confidence on the rise, and significant gains in education, it’s clear that things are looking up. By recognizing and building on this momentum, we can create a more positive and optimistic outlook for the future. As the author notes, "The story we tell ourselves matters. If we look only for what is broken, we miss what is working. Progress is not perfection, but the steady accumulation of improvements that make life better for children, families and communities." By focusing on the positive and working together, we can create a brighter future for all New Zealanders.