Key Takeaways
- Christopher Luxon’s preferred‑Prime‑Minister rating fell to 16 %, his lowest since becoming National Party leader, a four‑point drop from the previous poll.
- Labour leader Chris Hipkins leads the preferred‑PM standings at 19 %, while Winston Peters (NZ First) rose to 12 % and Chlöe Swarbrick (Greens) to 6 %.
- Internal National Party turmoil is growing: senior whip Stuart Smith reportedly tried to show Luxon evidence of waning caucus support before Easter, but Luxon allegedly “ghosted” him to avoid the confrontation.
- Senior minister Chris Bishop denied knowledge of the “ghosting” incident and reiterated his support for Luxon as the party’s leader, despite rumours positioning him as a potential leadership challenger.
- Recent polling shows National hovering around 28‑29 % of the party vote, well behind Labour’s 36 % and only a few points above the party’s disastrous 2020 result under Judith Collins.
- The next fortnight is seen as a critical window for Luxon’s critics to mount a leadership challenge, with party insiders indicating a possible move before Easter.
Poll Results for Preferred Prime Minister
The latest 1News‑Verian poll placed Christopher Luxon at 16 % support as the preferred Prime Minister, marking a four‑point decline and his worst figure since he assumed the National Party leadership. Labour’s Chris Hipkins maintained a narrow lead at 19 %, unchanged from the previous survey aside from a one‑point dip. NZ First leader Winston Peters gained two points to reach 12 %, while Green Party co‑leader Chlöe Swarbrick edged up one point to 6 %. Act leader David Seymour held steady at 4 %, and senior National minister Chris Bishop recorded a modest rise to 2 % amid speculation about his leadership ambitions.
Leadership Speculation Within National
The poll’s release coincided with growing unease inside the National caucus. Herald investigations revealed that a group of MPs who believe Luxon should step down plan to make their move within the next two weeks. This timing aligns with the period after Easter, when party whips and senior figures typically regroup after the parliamentary recess. The prospect of a leadership challenge has intensified scrutiny on Luxon’s ability to maintain unity and confidence among his MPs.
The Role of Party Whip Stuart Smith
As the party whip, Stuart Smith is responsible for gauging sentiment among backbenchers and acting as a liaison between them and the leader. According to sources, Smith attempted to present Luxon with concrete evidence of declining caucus confidence before the Easter break. The alleged “ghosting” incident—where Luxon avoided meeting Smith to sidestep the uncomfortable conversation—has been cited by critics as a sign that the leader is unwilling to confront internal dissent directly. Smith’s efforts underscore the whip’s traditional function of flagging emerging problems to the leadership before they erupt publicly.
Chris Bishop’s Denial and Loyalty Stance
When questioned on TVNZ’s Q & A with Jack Tame, senior minister Chris Bishop claimed he had no knowledge of the “ghosting” episode and insisted he would not pursue the leadership should the position become vacant. Bishop reiterated his belief that Luxon remains the appropriate person to lead National, attempting to quell rumours that he is positioning himself as a successor. His statements aim to reinforce party unity while acknowledging the underlying tension that has fuelled speculation about a possible leadership contest.
Broader Party‑Vote Polling Trends
Beyond the preferred‑Prime‑Minister metrics, recent party‑vote polls paint a challenging picture for National. The Taxpayers’ Union‑Curia survey from early March recorded National at just 28.4 %, only a couple of points above its catastrophic 2020 outcome under Judith Collins. A subsequent Talbot Mills poll placed the party at roughly 29 %, still trailing Labour’s 36 % by a significant margin. In the same Talbot Mills survey, NZ First sat at 15 %, the Greens at 7 %, Act at 8 %, and Te Pāti Māori at 2 %. These figures suggest that National’s struggles extend beyond leadership perception to broader voter appeal.
Implications for the Upcoming Fortnight
The convergence of poor polling numbers, internal dissent, and the imminent leadership‑challenge window creates a precarious situation for Luxon. If critics succeed in mobilising a challenge before Easter, it could trigger a leadership vote that reshapes National’s direction heading into the next election cycle. Conversely, if Luxon manages to quell the unrest and demonstrate renewed caucus confidence, he may stabilise the party’s fortunes, though the underlying vote share deficits would still require substantive policy and campaign adjustments.
Conclusion: A Leadership at a Crossroads
Christopher Luxon’s current predicament reflects both a personal leadership test and a strategic challenge for the National Party. His declining preferred‑Prime‑Minister rating signals waning public confidence, while internal caucus discontent, highlighted by the alleged whip‑leader standoff, threatens party cohesion. The coming fortnight will be pivotal: either Luxon can reassert authority and refocus the party’s message, or dissent will culminate in a leadership contest that could alter National’s trajectory ahead of the next general election. How the party navigates this period will likely determine whether it can rebound from its recent lows or continue to languish behind Labour and its smaller coalition partners.