Key Takeaways
- Labour remains the largest party at 34 % but slipped 1.6 points since March.
- National fell to 28.7 %, its lowest level under Christopher Luxon and the fourth straight decline in the Reid Research series.
- New Zealand First rose to 11.5 %, its best Reid Research showing since July 2017.
- The Opportunity Party more than doubled its support to 4.7 %, just 0.3 % shy of the 5 % threshold for parliamentary entry.
- If the poll held on election day, the current coalition (National, ACT, New Zealand First) would secure a razor‑thin majority of 61 seats in a 120‑seat Parliament.
- Over‑hang possibilities exist if National wins more than 36 electorates or Te Pāti Māori captures more than three Māori electorates.
- Chris Hipkins retained the lead as preferred prime minister (23.9 %), while Luxon’s personal rating rose to 20 %.
- Public optimism improved modestly, with 34.7 % believing the country is heading in the right direction (net –11.8, up 5.9 points from March).
- The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents online between 2‑9 July 2026 using quota sampling; maximum margin of error is ±3.1 % at a 95 % confidence level.
Poll Overview: Party Support Shifts
The latest RNZ‑Reid Research poll, released on Tuesday, shows Labour holding the top spot with 34 % support, a decline of 1.6 percentage points since March. National’s support dropped 2.1 points to 28.7 %, marking its weakest result since Christopher Luxon became party leader in November 2021 and the fourth consecutive fall in the Reid Research series. In contrast, New Zealand First continued its upward trajectory, gaining 0.9 points to reach 11.5 %—its best showing with Reid Research since July 2017. The Green Party edged up slightly to 10.3 % (+0.2), while ACT rose to 7.8 % (+0.8). Te Pāti Māori fell 0.9 points to 2.3 %. Undecided or non‑voters decreased sharply from 7.1 % in March to 3.8 % in this survey, indicating a more engaged electorate as parties unveiled policy platforms and held their annual conferences.
Coalition Mathematics and Potential Overhang
Translating the party‑vote percentages into seat projections (assuming no over‑hang seats and the return of all current parties) yields 36 MPs for National, 15 for New Zealand First, and 10 for ACT, giving the incumbent coalition a total of 61 seats in the 120‑seat Parliament—just enough for a bare majority. Labour would secure 43 seats, the Greens 13, and Te Pāti Māori three, for a combined 59 seats on the opposition side. The coalition’s majority could expand if National wins more than 36 electorate seats; the party currently holds 43 electorates, so any excess over 36 would create over‑hang seats, increasing both the coalition’s seat count and the total size of Parliament. Conversely, Te Pāti Māori could narrow the gap by capturing more than three of the seven Māori electorates; the party won six of those seats at the last election, positioning it to potentially gain additional over‑hang seats if it outperforms its party‑vote entitlement.
Opportunity Party’s Rise and Threshold Prospects
The most notable movement in the poll belongs to the refreshed Opportunity Party, which more than doubled its support from 2.0 % in March to 4.7 % in July—a gain of 2.7 points. This places the party just 0.3 percentage points below the 5 % threshold required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. Should Opportunity cross that threshold on election day, it would garner list seats proportional to its vote share, thereby displacing seats from the parties currently represented. The party’s surge follows a series of policy announcements and a refreshed public image, suggesting that voters are responding to its centrist, reform‑oriented platform. If the party remains just under the threshold, its influence will be limited to electorate contests, but a slight uplift in the coming weeks could push it over the line and alter the parliamentary arithmetic dramatically.
Minor Party Movements and Voter Undecided Trends
Beyond the major shifts, the Green Party’s modest increase to 10.3 % reflects stable environmental‑policy support, while ACT’s rise to 7.8 % indicates continued traction for its liberal‑economic agenda. Te Pāti Māori’s dip to 2.3 % suggests some erosion of its Māori‑focused vote, possibly due to competition from Labour and the Greens in Māori electorates. The sharp decline in undecided or non‑voters—from 7.1 % to 3.8 %—signals that the electorate is becoming more decisive as parties clarify their positions ahead of the election. This reduction in uncertainty enhances the reliability of vote‑share projections, though the remaining 3.8 % still represents a potentially swing‑able bloc that could influence tight races, especially in electorate contests where margins are often narrow.
Leader Approval Ratings: Hipkins and Luxon Gain
Personal approval ratings for the two main party leaders moved in opposite directions to their parties’ fortunes. Chris Hipkins remained the most preferred prime minister, climbing 3.2 points to 23.9 % support. Christopher Luxon also saw an improvement, rising 2.7 points to 20 %, narrowing the gap with Hipkins but still trailing the Labour leader. Winston Peters of New Zealand First held steady in third place with 13.2 %, a marginal increase of 0.1 points. Approximately 15 % of respondents either declined to nominate a preferred prime ministerial candidate or said they did not know, underscoring a segment of the electorate that remains disengaged from leadership preferences despite heightened party‑vote awareness.
Public Sentiment: Direction of the Country Improves Slightly
Voter optimism about the country’s trajectory showed a modest uplift. 34.7 % of respondents believed New Zealand was heading in the right direction, up 2.4 points from March, while those who thought the opposite fell to 46.5 %, down 3.5 points. This yields a net sentiment score of –11.8, an improvement of 5.9 points compared with the previous poll’s –17.7. Partisan breakdown reveals stark divides: National supporters are the most optimistic, registering a net score of +68.7, followed by ACT supporters at +37.7. In contrast, New Zealand First voters are considerably more pessimistic, with a net score of –36.1. The overall shift suggests that, while the electorate remains dissatisfied on balance, recent policy announcements and leadership movements have slightly eased the prevailing gloom.
Poll Methodology and Sampling Details
The survey was conducted by Reid Research between 2 and 9 July 2026, employing online interviews with a sample of 1,000 eligible voters. Quota sampling and weighting were applied to ensure the sample reflected the national population across age, gender, and geographic regions. The maximum margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95 % confidence level, meaning that the true party‑vote figures could vary within this range. The poll’s timing—following a series of major policy releases and the annual conferences of National, Labour, and ACT—captures voter sentiment after a period of heightened political activity, providing a timely snapshot of the shifting landscape as New Zealand approaches its next general election.