Key Takeaways
- Almost 50% of respondents believe Labour should rule out working with Te Pāti Māori, while 34% think they should not.
- Labour voters are divided on the issue, with 38% wanting to reject Te Pāti Māori and 44% wanting to keep the option open.
- Supporters of Te Pāti Māori and the Greens strongly support Labour leaving the door open for a potential partnership.
- NZ First divides voters, with 39% saying Labour should shut the door on them and 37% saying they should not.
- Voters are also divided on whether Labour should rule out the Green Party, with 40% saying they should and 46% saying they should not.
Introduction to the Polling Results
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has shed light on the complex and precarious landscape of New Zealand’s political landscape. The poll, which surveyed 1000 people, reveals that almost half of all respondents believe Labour should rule out working with Te Pāti Māori, while just over 34% think they should not. This result is significant, as it highlights the challenges faced by Labour leader Chris Hipkins in navigating the party’s relationships with other political parties. The poll also reveals that Labour voters are divided on the issue, with 38% wanting to reject Te Pāti Māori and 44% wanting to keep the option open.
Labour’s Dilemma
Hipkins’ dilemma is driven home when looking more specifically at Labour’s own base. While 38% of Labour voters said Hipkins should reject Te Pāti Māori, 44% preferred to keep the option open. This division within Labour’s own ranks highlights the challenges faced by Hipkins in making a decision on whether to work with Te Pāti Māori. The party’s pathway to power is precarious without Te Pāti Māori’s numbers, and Hipkins has increasingly sharpened his criticism of the party, saying they are not ready for government. However, Labour’s own voters seem to be more open to the idea of working with Te Pāti Māori, which could put pressure on Hipkins to reconsider his stance.
Te Pāti Māori and the Greens
Supporters of Te Pāti Māori and the Greens were strongly aligned in wanting Labour to leave the door open for a potential partnership. More than 60% of supporters of both parties were in favour of Labour working with them, while just 20% were against. This result highlights the strong support for a potential partnership between Labour and these two parties. However, the views of other parties were less supportive, with nearly two-thirds of National voters saying Labour should rule out Te Pāti Māori, and about 75% of Act voters and more than 80% of NZ First voters sharing this view.
NZ First and Labour
The poll also reveals that NZ First divides voters sharply, with 39% saying Labour should shut the door on them and 37% saying they should not. Labour voters leaned more strongly towards ruling NZ First out, with 45% suggesting that course of action and about 35% opposed. However, supporters of every parliamentary party except NZ First were, on balance, more inclined to want Labour to exclude Peters. This result highlights the challenges faced by Hipkins in navigating the complex web of relationships between Labour and other parties.
The Green Party
Voters were also divided over whether Labour should rule out the Green Party, despite the two parties’ recent co-operation. More than 40% of respondents said Labour should rule out the Greens, compared with about 46% who said it should not. Once again, views split down government and opposition lines, with more than 60% of Labour voters wanting the Green Party to remain in play, as did 84% of Green voters. National, Act, and NZ First voters were far more likely to want the Greens excluded. This result highlights the challenges faced by Hipkins in navigating the complex relationships between Labour and other parties.
Conclusion and Next Steps
Speaking to RNZ, Hipkins said he was giving "plenty of thought" to Labour’s governing options and would outline his position "in the fullness of time". The poll was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure a representative cross-section by age, gender, and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between January 15-22, 2026, and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. As Hipkins navigates the complex landscape of New Zealand politics, he will need to carefully consider the views of voters and the challenges faced by his party in order to make a decision on which parties to work with.