Key Takeaways
- Labour’s campaign chairperson Kieran McAnulty ruled out a post‑election coalition with ACT, calling it impossible.
- He described a partnership with New Zealand First as “highly unlikely” given the party’s current posture, but stopped short of a definitive rejection.
- McAnulty indicated Labour expects to win back the Māori electorates currently held by Te Pāti Māori, making a deal with that party unlikely.
- The Greens are presented as the most realistic coalition partner, though McAnulty did not name them explicitly.
- He left the door open for newer parties such as Opportunity (and its candidate Qiulae Wong) provided they first clear the 5 % threshold to enter Parliament.
- Labour criticised the governing National‑ACT coalition for altering electoral enrolment rules and raising social‑housing rents, pledging to reverse both if elected.
- McAnulty expressed confidence that Labour could form a government with the support of just one other party, citing current polling that shows a realistic chance of achieving that outcome.
Labour’s Coalition Calculus
Speaking to TVNZ’s Q + A from Labour’s annual conference in Wellington, campaign chairperson Kieran McAnulty was pressed on which parties Labour might govern with after the election. He made it clear that a deal with ACT is off the table: “Well, it won’t be ACT,” he said, adding that the prospect of working with New Zealand First is “highly unlikely” the way the party is currently behaving. While he did not outright reject NZ First, his wording signalled a strong reluctance, echoing the stance previously taken by Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who noted that the party’s “posturing” makes any arrangement very difficult.
Te Pāti Māori and the Māori Seats
McAnulty also addressed the possibility of a coalition with Te Pāti Māori, the Māori‑focused party that currently holds six of the seven Māori electorates. He suggested Labour expects to reclaim those seats, stating, “Probably won’t be Te Pāti Māori either, because I suspect we’re going to win their seats back.” By anticipating a Labour sweep of the Māori electorates, he effectively narrowed the field of viable partners, implying that any agreement with Te Pāti Māori would be unnecessary if Labour secures those votes outright.
The Greens as the Most Likely Partner
Although McAnulty did not explicitly name the Greens, he hinted that they remain the most realistic option for a minority‑government arrangement. The Greens have historically been Labour’s natural ally on progressive policy, and their presence in Parliament is stable. By ruling out ACT, down‑playing NZ First, and writing off Te Pāti Māori, the Greens emerge as the logical party that could provide the additional support Labour needs to cross the governing threshold without compromising its core platform.
Opportunity Party and the 5 % Hurdle
When asked about the newer Opportunity party—represented in polling by candidate Qiulae Wong—McAnulty did not rule out a future collaboration, but stressed that the party must first prove it can reach Parliament. He noted, “They’ve said they can work with either side, and so that’s something that people are going to have to weigh up as to whether they’re comfortable with a vote for them going to a side that they don’t support.” At the time of the interview, a 1News Verian poll showed Opportunity hovering just below the 5 % threshold, meaning it had not yet secured list seats. McAnulty’s conditional openness suggests Labour would consider such a party only after it clears the electoral hurdle and demonstrates sufficient public backing.
Criticism of Electoral Law Changes
Beyond coalition talk, McAnulty used the interview to sharpen Labour’s attack on the government’s electoral reforms. He accused the National‑ACT administration of altering enrolment laws to its advantage, pointing out that voters can no longer enrol in the final days before an election or on polling day itself. “It’s there for all to see why this Government have tried to gerrymander things a little bit,” he remarked, framing the changes as a deliberate attempt to “screw the scrum” in favour of the incumbent coalition. Labour pledged to reverse these amendments if elected, arguing that fair access to the vote is a fundamental democratic principle.
Social‑Housing Rent Policy
McAnulty also committed to undoing the government’s recent increase in social‑housing rent contributions, which raised tenants’ share from 25 % to 30 % of income. Introduced in Budget 2026 as part of a broader overhaul aimed at making support “fairer, better targeted, and more focused on encouraging independence,” the change has been criticised by opposition parties as punitive for low‑income earners. Asked whether Labour would restore the previous 25 % setting, he replied unequivocally: “If we’re in Government, we will not be fulfilling those … next year. Absolutely not.” He framed the reversal as a key component of Labour’s housing justice agenda, countering the National‑ACT claim that the measure would save $542 million over the forecast period.
Confidence in Governing Prospects
Despite the fragmented landscape, McAnulty expressed confidence that Labour could form a government with the backing of just one other party. He told the interviewer, “I think we’re a genuine shot of being able to form a government with the support of one other party,” citing internal polling that shows Labour within striking distance of a majority when combined with a single ally. This optimism rests on Labour’s strong performance in general electorates, its expected recovery of Māori seats, and the potential to attract either the Greens or a threshold‑clearing minor party such as Opportunity.
Outlook and Implications
The interview paints a picture of a Labour party keen to differentiate itself from the current government while navigating a complex post‑election environment. By ruling out ACT, down‑playing NZ First, and signalling a likely return of Māori seats to Labour, the party narrows its viable coalition options to the Greens—and possibly a new entrant like Opportunity, contingent on electoral success. Labour’s pledge to reverse controversial electoral enrolment changes and social‑housing rent hikes adds a clear policy contrast that could sway undecided voters. Whether these positions translate into enough seats to govern remains to be seen, but McAnulty’s comments suggest Labour is preparing to negotiate with a single, ideologically compatible partner to achieve a stable minority government.