Key Takeaways
- New Zealand First slipped slightly to 10.8 % (‑0.6 points), while Te Pāti Māori rose to 3.4 % (+0.3) and the Opportunity Party edged up to 3.3 % (+0.1).
- Projected seat totals remain unchanged: the right‑wing bloc (National, ACT, New Zealand First) holds 62 seats; the left‑wing bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) holds 58 seats.
- With these numbers the incumbent coalition government can still command a majority in Parliament.
- Public optimism improved: the share of respondents saying New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction fell 7 points to 45.5 %, while those seeing the country on the right track rose 5.5 points to 39.2 %, yielding a net direction score of –6.3 % (the highest since November 2025).
- The poll was conducted by phone between 1 July and 5 July 2025, sampled 1,000 adults, weighted to the national population, and carries a maximum margin of error of ±3.1 %.
- Julia Gabel, a Wellington‑based political reporter for the New Zealand Herald specializing in data journalism, authored the piece.
Poll Overview: Party Support Shifts
The latest Taxpayers’ Union‑Curia (TPU) poll shows modest movements in party support. New Zealand First experienced the largest decline, dropping 0.6 percentage points to sit at 10.8 %. In contrast, Te Pāti Māori gained 0.3 points, reaching 3.4 %, while the Opportunity Party recorded a marginal increase of 0.1 point to 3.3 %. These changes, though small, illustrate the fluid nature of voter sentiment as parties unveil new policy platforms. The shifts are within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting that the underlying support base for each party remains relatively stable despite recent campaign activity.
Seat Projections and Bloc Strengths
Translating the vote shares into projected parliamentary seats, the right‑wing bloc comprising National, ACT, and New Zealand First retains 62 seats—exactly the same total recorded in the two preceding TPU surveys. Meanwhile, the left‑wing bloc, consisting of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori, remains steady at 58 seats. Because the total number of seats in Parliament is 120, the right bloc holds a four‑seat advantage over the left. The unchanged seat distribution indicates that, despite minor fluctuations in party percentages, the overall balance of power has not shifted in recent weeks.
Government Formation Prospects
Given the current seat projection, the coalition government formed by National and its allies can still secure a majority. With 62 seats, the government exceeds the 60‑seat threshold required to govern outright, leaving the opposition bloc short by four seats. This outcome suggests that, barring any dramatic changes in voter allegiance or unforeseen political developments, the incumbent administration retains the capacity to pass legislation and maintain confidence in the House without needing additional support from minor parties or independents.
Public Sentiment on National Direction
The poll also gauged respondents’ views on whether New Zealand is heading in the right or wrong direction. The proportion of people who believe the country is on the wrong track decreased by 7 points, settling at 45.5 %. Conversely, those who see the nation moving in the right direction rose by 5.5 points to 39.2 %. The resulting net direction score—calculated as the percentage feeling positive minus the percentage feeling negative—stands at –6.3 %. This figure represents an improvement of 12.5 points compared with earlier measurements and is noted by the Taxpayers’ Union as the highest net direction score since November 2025, signalling a modest uptick in public optimism.
Interpretation of the Direction Metrics
While the net direction score remains negative, indicating that more respondents still perceive the country as heading incorrectly than correctly, the trend is clearly moving toward a more favorable outlook. The 7‑point drop in pessimism coupled with a 5.5‑point rise in optimism suggests that recent political announcements and policy debates may be influencing public perception. The improvement, though insufficient to flip the overall sentiment to positive, marks the strongest positive shift recorded in the TPU series over the past several months, hinting at a potential turning point in voter confidence if sustained.
Policy Announcements Shaping the Poll
The survey period followed a busy few weeks of policy releases from the major parties. Labour and National each unveiled solar power strategies aimed at boosting renewable energy adoption. The Greens launched an election‑focused tax package paired with a clean water initiative, attempting to appeal to environmentally conscious voters. New Zealand First signalled its intention to campaign for restricting voting rights to citizens only, a move likely aimed at its core constituency. Meanwhile, ACT promoted a new “three strikes” regime targeting burglary, emphasizing a law‑and‑order agenda. These overlapping policy pushes likely contributed to the modest shifts in party support and the observed changes in public direction sentiment.
National’s Roading Project Update
Amid the policy flurry, National’s Minister of Transport, Chris Bishop, provided an update on the party’s Roads of National Significance (RONS) pipeline. Bishop acknowledged that the delivery timelines for several key roading projects face uncertainty, though he reiterated the government’s commitment to seeing them completed. He characterised the original 2023 election promises as “very ambitious,” suggesting that while the aspirations remain, practical constraints may necessitate revised schedules. This candid admission could influence voter perceptions of National’s competence in infrastructure delivery, a portfolio traditionally central to its electoral appeal.
Methodological Details of the Poll
The data underpinning these findings were gathered via telephone interviews with 1,000 New Zealand adults conducted between 1 July and 5 July 2025. Responses were weighted to align with the overall adult population demographics, ensuring that the sample reflects national characteristics in terms of age, gender, region, and ethnicity. The survey’s maximum margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, meaning that the true level of support for any given party could vary within that range. This level of precision is standard for political polls of this size and provides a reasonable basis for interpreting the reported trends.
About the Reporter
The article was authored by Julia Gabel, a Wellington‑based political reporter who joined the New Zealand Herald in 2020. Gabel has increasingly specialised in data journalism, employing statistical analysis and visual storytelling to elucidate complex political developments for readers. Her background in data‑driven reporting equips her to interpret polling results, contextualise policy announcements, and convey the nuances of shifting voter sentiment with clarity and rigor.
Conclusion
In summary, the most recent TPU poll reveals a modest realignment of party support, with New Zealand First slipping slightly while Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party make small gains. Despite these fluctuations, the projected seat totals for the right‑ and left‑wing blocs remain unchanged at 62 and 58 seats respectively, preserving the government’s ability to govern. Public optimism has improved, as evidenced by a notable drop in the proportion of respondents viewing the country’s direction negatively and a corresponding rise in those seeing it positively, yielding the highest net direction score since late 2025. The policy flurry surrounding solar energy, taxation, water quality, voting rights, and crime appears to be shaping voter attitudes, while National’s candid reassessment of its ambitious roading programme may affect confidence in its infrastructure promises. Methodologically sound and reported by a specialist in data journalism, the poll offers a nuanced snapshot of New Zealand’s political landscape as parties continue to jockey for voter favor in the lead‑up to the next election.