Key Takeaways
- The Green Party’s support has nearly doubled since April, rising from 7 % to 13 % in the latest Talbot Mills poll.
- Labour remains the largest party at 34 %, but has slipped two points since May.
- National is steady at 29 %, while New Zealand First fell to 12 %, just behind the Greens.
- ACT sits at 6 %, safely above the 5 % threshold and expected to retain an electorate seat.
- The left‑bloc (Labour + Greens + other left‑leaning parties) would secure 49 % of the party vote, translating to 61 seats – enough to form a government under MMP.
- The current coalition (National + ACT + New Zealand First) would garner only 47 % of the vote, yielding 59 seats, insufficient to govern.
- Chris Hipkins leads Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister by a single point (21 % vs 20 %).
- Approval of the coalition government is negative, with 51 % disapproving versus 42 % approving.
- The poll was conducted 1‑10 June, carries a 3.1 % margin of error, and was commissioned by Anacta for Talbot Mills, the traditional Labour pollster.
Poll Overview and Commissioning Details
The Talbot Mills poll, commissioned by the research firm Anacta and reviewed by RNZ, captures voter sentiment between 1 and 10 June. Talbot Mills has historically served as the Labour Party’s preferred polling partner, which lends the survey a degree of continuity with previous Labour‑commissioned studies. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percent, meaning that the reported figures could shift slightly in either direction while still reflecting the broader electorate’s mood. The data were gathered through a standard telephone and online survey methodology, ensuring a representative cross‑section of New Zealand voters across age, region, and demographic groups.
Green Party Surge
The most striking development in the poll is the Green Party’s surge in support. In April the Greens languished at 7 percent of the party vote; by May they had climbed to 9 percent, and the June figure shows a further increase to 13 percent—an effective doubling of their support over just two months. This uptick suggests that environmental concerns, climate‑policy announcements, or heightened visibility of Green leaders may be resonating with voters who previously leaned toward other centre‑left options. The rise also places the Greens just ahead of New Zealand First, positioning them as a pivotal king‑maker in any potential left‑bloc coalition.
Labour’s Position and Minor Decline
Labour remains the largest single party in the poll, securing 34 percent of the party vote. However, this represents a two‑point drop from May’s 36 percent and continues a gradual decline from the 26 percent preferred‑prime‑minister figure for Chris Hipkins in March. The dip may reflect voter fatigue, criticism of specific policy implementations, or a shift toward the Greens as voters seek more progressive environmental action. Despite the slip, Labour’s support still provides a solid base for any left‑leaning government, especially when combined with the Green surge.
National’s Steadiness
National’s support holds firm at 29 percent, unchanged over the past three months. This stability indicates that the party’s core base remains loyal, even as the left‑bloc gains ground. National’s unchanged figure suggests that its messaging and policy platform have not experienced significant shifts in voter perception during the polling window. The party’s steady performance keeps it as the principal opposition force, but it remains below the threshold needed to lead a government without coalition partners.
New Zealand First’s Decline
New Zealand First has slipped two points since May, landing at 12 percent of the party vote. This places the party just below the Greens and highlights a weakening of its populist, nationalist appeal. The decline could be attributed to the party’s difficulty in differentiating itself from both National and Labour on key issues, or to voter dissatisfaction with its recent performance in government. At 12 percent, New Zealand First remains a relevant player, but its reduced share makes it less likely to be a decisive coalition partner unless it can regain momentum.
ACT’s Threshold Position
ACT continues to hover just above the 5 percent threshold necessary for list representation, now at 6 percent—a one‑point drop from May. The party’s modest decline is unlikely to jeopardize its return to Parliament, especially given its strength in electorate seats. ACT’s positioning as a liberal‑right, free‑market voice ensures it retains a niche voter base, and the poll suggests it will comfortably clear the threshold and likely secure at least one electorate seat, preserving its parliamentary presence.
Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party
Te Pāti Māori shows a modest increase, rising from 2.2 percent in May to 2.6 percent in June. While still below the threshold, the upward trend indicates growing engagement with Māori‑focused policy among a segment of the electorate. The Opportunity Party also climbs, moving from 2.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Both parties remain minor players in the national party‑vote landscape, but their incremental gains could influence electorate‑seat calculations, particularly in Māori electorates where Te Pāti Māori may be competitive.
Coalition Versus Left‑Bloc Seat Projections
Using the Electoral Commission’s MMP seat calculator, the poll’s party‑vote percentages translate into specific parliamentary outcomes. The current coalition—National (29 %), ACT (6 %), and New Zealand First (12 %)—would collectively secure 47 percent of the party vote, projecting 59 seats. This falls short of the 61 seats required to govern outright. In contrast, the left‑bloc—Labour (34 %) plus the Greens (13 %)—along with minor left‑leaning parties such as Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party—would amass 49 percent of the vote, yielding an estimated 61 seats. This narrow majority suggests that, should an election be held on the polling date, a Labour‑led government with Green support could achieve a workable majority, potentially relying on confidence‑and‑supply arrangements with smaller parties.
Preferred Prime Minister Ratings
When voters were asked to name their preferred prime minister, Chris Hipkins led Christopher Luxon by a single point: Hipkins at 21 percent versus Luxon at 20 percent. Hipkins’ rating has declined from 23 percent in May and 26 percent in March, indicating a gradual erosion of his personal popularity, possibly linked to the same factors affecting Labour’s party vote. Luxon’s steady 20 percent since April shows that his personal appeal has remained flat, neither gaining nor losing ground. Winston Peters’ preference rating fell three points to 14 percent, mirroring the decline in New Zealand First’s party vote and underscoring a weakening personal brand for the party’s leader.
Government Approval Ratings
The poll also gauged public sentiment toward the incumbent coalition government. Approval stands at 42 percent, while disapproval reaches 51 percent—a net negative of nine points. This dissatisfaction aligns with the party‑vote shifts away from National‑aligned parties and toward the Greens and Labour. The negative approval rating suggests that a significant portion of the electorate perceives the coalition as underperforming on key issues such as cost of living, housing, or climate policy, thereby opening space for alternative governing arrangements.
Methodological Context and Limitations
The Talbot Mills survey, conducted between 1‑10 June, employed a mixed‑mode approach (telephone and online) to capture a broad demographic snapshot. The 3.1 percent margin of error means that, for example, the Greens’ true support could realistically lie between 9.9 percent and 16.1 percent, while Labour’s could range from 30.9 percent to 37.1 percent. Despite this uncertainty, the relative movements—most notably the Green surge and the coalition’s negative approval—are robust enough to infer meaningful trends. The poll’s commissioning by Anacta, a firm known for progressive‑leaning research, does not inherently bias the results, but readers should consider the potential for subtle framing effects when interpreting the data.
Implications for Future Political Strategy
The poll’s findings carry strategic lessons for each major party. For Labour, maintaining its core vote while addressing the drift toward the Greens will be crucial; policy emphasis on climate action, social equity, and cost‑of‑living relief could blunt the Green surge. The Greens, buoyed by their rise, must translate heightened support into concrete policy wins and candidate strength in electorate seats to convert party‑vote gains into tangible parliamentary influence. National faces the challenge of revitalising its appeal beyond its traditional base; differentiating its platform on economic management and public safety may be needed to halt further erosion. ACT’s focus on retaining electorate seats and defending its liberal‑right brand will be vital to remain relevant despite modest list‑vote fluctuations. New Zealand First’s decline signals a need to reinvigorate its distinct value proposition, possibly by sharpening its stance on immigration, sovereignty, or economic nationalism. Finally, minor parties like Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party may seek electorate‑seat opportunities in Māori electorates or specific regional niches to amplify their impact despite low national party‑vote shares.
Conclusion
The latest Talbot Mills poll paints a picture of a shifting political landscape in New Zealand: the Greens are emerging as a stronger left‑wing force, Labour retains a plurality but is losing ground, and the current coalition struggles to command sufficient support to govern. Approval of the coalition is negative, and the preferred‑prime‑minister race is essentially tied. Should an election occur now, the left‑bloc would likely secure a slender majority, enabling a Labour‑led government with Green participation. These dynamics set the stage for intensified campaigning, policy debate, and potential realignments as parties respond to the electorate’s evolving priorities.