Key Takeaways
- Petrol prices rose 18.6% and diesel prices jumped 42.6% from February to March 2026 – the largest monthly increases since Stats NZ began tracking fuel prices in July 2011.
- The surge coincided with Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 20 % of global oil exports and pushing Brent crude from roughly US$70 to above US$119 a barrel.
- Despite earlier declines in January and February, fuel costs are now 13.9 % higher for petrol and 36.9 % higher for diesel compared with a year ago.
- Westpac data show Kiwi motorists are spending 15 % more on fuel annually while purchasing 6‑8 % less volume per transaction, with average unleaded prices up $1.04 / L (≈ 40 %) and diesel up $1.90 / L.
- Airfare trends were mixed: domestic fares fell 14.4 % month‑on‑month (down 7.3 % yearly) while international fares rose 3.5 % month‑on‑month (up 9.8 % yearly).
- Food prices increased 3.4 % over the past year but slipped 0.6 % in March 2026, reflecting a modest easing after a sharper rise in February.
Record Fuel Price Increases in March 2026
Stats NZ reported that petrol prices climbed 18.6 % between February and March 2026, while diesel prices surged an unprecedented 42.6 % over the same period. These jumps mark the largest month‑to‑month increases for either fuel type since the agency began publishing monthly vehicle fuel price data in July 2011. The magnitude of the rise underscores how quickly global supply disruptions can translate into higher costs at the pump for New Zealand motorists.
Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Closure
The fuel price spike coincided with Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for much of March. This waterway normally carries about 20 % of the world’s oil exports, and its disruption triggered a global fuel crisis. Brent crude oil prices reacted sharply, climbing from roughly US$70 a barrel to peaks above US$119. The shock to international oil supplies was the primary driver behind the domestic fuel inflation observed in New Zealand.
Contrast with Earlier Monthly Trends
Earlier in the year, fuel prices had moved in the opposite direction. Stats NZ noted that both petrol and diesel prices fell in January and February 2026 before the March surge. Despite those earlier declines, the cumulative effect left fuel costs significantly higher than a year earlier: petrol prices were up 13.9 % and diesel prices up 36.9 % in the 12 months to March 2026.
Methodology Behind the Fuel Price Data
To compile the monthly movements, Stats NZ combined administrative data supplied directly by petrol companies with weekly price checks conducted at service stations nationwide. Average prices for diesel and petrol—including 91‑octane and 95/98‑octane blends—were calculated to reflect the cost changes experienced by households across the country. Monthly percentage changes were then derived by comparing the current month’s average price with that of the preceding month.
Westpac’s Findings on Fuel Spending
A separate Westpac report highlighted that Kiwi motorists are now spending 15 % more on fuel compared with the same period last year. However, the average volume of fuel bought per transaction has fallen by about 6 % to 8 %, indicating that higher prices are curbing consumption. The bank’s data showed the national average price for 91‑unleaded petrol rose by $1.04 per litre—a roughly 40 % increase—while diesel prices climbed by $1.90 per litre over the same period.
Continued Pressure on Household Budgets
The combination of higher per‑litre costs and reduced purchase volumes means that households are feeling a noticeable pinch at the pump. Even though consumers are buying slightly less fuel each time they fill up, the overall expenditure on fuel has risen, adding to cost‑of‑living pressures that are already being felt through other expense categories such as food and housing.
Airfare Movements in March 2026
Stats NZ also released updated airfare statistics for March. Domestic airfares decreased 14.4 % month‑on‑month and were down 7.3 % over the preceding 12 months. In contrast, international airfares rose 3.5 % compared with February and increased 9.8 % year‑on‑year. The agency noted that travellers typically book and pay for flights well in advance, so the observed price changes reflect fares that were set up to a year earlier, lagging behind current market conditions.
Food Price Developments
Food prices showed a modest increase of 3.4 % over the 12 months to March 2026, following a sharper 4.5 % rise in the year to February. On a month‑to‑month basis, food prices actually fell 0.6 % in March compared with February, suggesting a slight easing after the earlier upward trend. This modest relief contrasts sharply with the steep and sustained rise in fuel costs, highlighting the divergent pressures facing different household expenditure categories.
Broader Economic Implications
The concurrent spikes in fuel prices, mixed airfare trends, and modest food price changes illustrate how geopolitical events—such as the Strait of Hormuz disruption—can rapidly affect multiple sectors of the economy. While some consumers may benefit from lower domestic airfare costs, the overall increase in transport expenditures, driven largely by fuel, adds to inflationary pressures that policymakers and households must monitor closely in the coming months.
All figures are sourced from Stats NZ and Westpac reports released in March 2026, with additional context provided by 1News and RNZ coverage of the period.