Key Takeaways
- The Dodgers are projected to finish just under the 110‑win pace (≈106 wins) because they manage pitcher workload conservatively and lack a true NL West challenger.
- Team batting average is expected to settle around .270‑.280, bolstered by depth despite injuries to Mookie Betts, a slump from Shohei Ohtani, and a slow start from Kyle Tucker.
- The starting rotation is likely to keep its ERA under 3.00 (≈2.8‑2.9) once Blake Snell returns healthy, although regression in BABIP may push it slightly above 3.0 by season’s end.
- Shohei Ohtani’s overall WAR is forecast between 9‑13, with most experts seeing a final total near 10‑11 WAR, reflecting his dual‑role value but acknowledging limited innings due to rest strategies.
- Ohtani is expected to finish in the top‑five for Cy Young voting, most likely third behind Paul Skenes and another elite pitcher, because his inning total will constrain traditional pitching‑award voters.
- Andy Pages will probably finish under .300 (≈.268‑.272), despite strong contact quality; his defensive value keeps him a useful contributors.
- Kyle Tucker’s OPS is projected to land in the high‑.70s to low‑.80s (≈.79‑.84), reflecting a slow start that should improve but may not reach the elite level his contract suggests.
The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the 2026 season with questions about how they would manage their deep roster and whether they could sustain the lofty win totals that have become a hallmark of the franchise. After a month of play, ESPN writers Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, and Jeff Passan offered their assessments of where the team is headed.
Win total: All three analysts agree the Dodgers will fall short of the 110‑win mark. Gonzalez points to the club’s conservative pitcher usage—starters getting extra rest, relievers not being over‑taxed, and position players playing through minor ailments—as a reason they won’t push for a record. He notes the absence of a genuine NL West challenger, making a deep run unlikely. Schoenfield acknowledges the historic rarity of 110‑win seasons (only nine teams have done it since the 162‑game schedule began) and cites injuries to Mookie Betts and Edwin Díaz, plus an inconsistent bullpen, as deterrents. He predicts 106 wins. Passan adds that the Dodgers have never chased regular‑season records; their focus is on October, and they have only reached 110 wins once (in 2022) before a rapid playoff exit. He also sides with an under.
Team batting average: The Dodgers entered April hitting .278 as a club. Gonzalez believes that figure can hold or even rise to .280, citing the lineup’s depth—Betts’ eventual return, Ohtani working through a mini slump, and Tucker still finding his stroke—combined with relatively weak division pitching. Schoenfield is more skeptical, arguing that a .278 average would be extraordinary in the modern era; he expects regression to about .268, noting that only a handful of players have sustained .300‑plus averages recently. Passan lands in the middle at .271, factoring in a likely BABIP decline but also the eventual return of Betts and a low strikeout rate.
Starting rotation ERA: The rotation’s 2.79 ERA leads MLB. Gonzalez is confident it will stay under 3.00 if Blake Snell returns healthy and continues his second‑half dominance, with Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow pushing each other. Schoenfield agrees the talent is there but warns that the extraordinarily low .241 BABIP the rotation has posted is unsustainable; he expects a slight uptick to just above 3.00. Passan sides with Gonzalez, emphasizing the Cy Young‑caliber stuff of Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow and the upside of emerging arms like Emmet Sheehan and River Ryan.
Shohei Ohtani’s WAR and Cy Young chances: Ohtani has accumulated 1.9 WAR (0.8 hitting, 1.1 pitching) early in the season. Gonzalez projects a final WAR of 13, a level only Babe Ruth has surpassed historically, noting Ohtani’s ability to post elite numbers both as a hitter (he produced 7.5 fWAR purely at the plate last year) and as a pitcher (5.6 fWAR in 2022). Schoenfield predicts a more modest 10.5 WAR, questioning whether Ohtani can maintain his recent offensive surge while shouldering a larger pitching load at age 32. Passan estimates 9.2 WAR, placing Ohtani in his usual 8‑10 win range and highlighting the trade‑off between his two‑way workload and inning totals.
Regarding the Cy Young vote, all three expect Ohtani to finish in the top‑five but not first. Gonzalez predicts a top‑five finish, pointing to the Dodgers’ managed rest schedule that will limit his innings—likely below the 166‑inning ceiling he reached in 2023. Schoenfield anticipates a third‑place finish behind Paul Skenes and another ace, noting that voters traditionally reward innings pitched, a category where Ohtani will be at a disadvantage unless he posts an otherworldly sub‑1.00 ERA. Passan echoes the third‑place outlook, citing Skenes and Chase Burns as the likely frontrunners.
Andy Pages and Kyle Tucker: Pages, currently hitting .337 in a small sample, is expected to finish under .300. Gonzalez cites the modern difficulty of sustaining a .300 average and Pages’ aggressive chase rate, though he acknowledges the player’s defensive value. Schoenfield agrees, projecting a final average slightly above his 2025 .272 but still below the .300 threshold, while noting improved hard‑hit contact. Passan predicts an under‑.300 outcome but believes Pages could still contribute significantly.
Tucker’s .696 OPS after a lucrative contract has raised concerns. Gonzalez expects him to finish around an .800 OPS, similar to his 2022 season after a slow April start, noting that only 45 of 145 qualified hitters cleared .800 last year. Schoenfield worries about a worsening strikeout‑to‑walk ratio and forecasts a final OPS of .791, a 50‑point drop from 2025. Passan is more optimistic, projecting .836 by assuming Tucker will perform near his career .859 OPS once he acclimates to the mega‑contract pressure.
Overall, the consensus is that the Dodgers remain a formidable team with deep talent, but their cautious roster management, injury concerns, and the modern offensive environment will keep them just shy of historic win totals and extreme offensive numbers, while still positioning them strongly for a postseason run.