Key Takeaways
- The Seattle Mariners are off to a historically bad start, batting just .184 in their first 13 games despite a franchise‑best 2.62 ERA, leaving them 4‑9 and at the bottom of the standings.
- The heart of the lineup—Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena—has combined for a .133 average with only one home run, and Rodriguez and Naylor have yet to record an extra‑base hit.
- Raleigh’s early struggles are especially stark: .143 average, one homer, 21 strikeouts (second‑most in MLB) and a dramatic drop in contact rates, particularly on pitches in the middle of the strike zone.
- His in‑zone contact has fallen from 78.4% in 2024 to 65.8% in 2026, and his swing‑and‑miss rate on fastballs has doubled from 25.2% to 50%.
- Environmental factors—cold April weather in Seattle, tough pitcher‑friendly parks in Anaheim and Texas—have exacerbated the slump, but historical trends (Raleigh’s streaky 2025 season, Rodriguez’s slow‑start pattern) suggest the sample size is still too small to panic.
- The Mariners host the division‑rival Houston Astros in ESPN’s MLB Game of the Day on Saturday, a potential turning point if the core can regain their timing and hard‑hit production.
The Mariners have opened the 2026 season with a bewildering combination of dominant pitching and anemic offense. Over their first 13 games the staff has posted a 2.62 ERA, the best in franchise history for that stretch, yet the team has managed only a .184 batting average and a 4‑9 record. The offensive drought was highlighted by a three‑game sweep in Texas where Seattle mustered just three runs and 11 hits, culminating in a two‑hit shutout on Wednesday.
Much of the frustration centers on the middle of the order. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena have combined for 26 hits in 195 at‑bats—a .133 slash line with a solitary home run. Rodriguez has produced only seven hits total, Naylor five, and neither has logged an extra‑base hit. Arozarena contributes three doubles, but the quartet’s overall production is far below expectations.
Raleigh, fresh off a record‑setting 60‑home‑run campaign in 2025, is under the microscope. Through 55 plate appearances he is hitting .143 with one homer, seven hits, and 21 strikeouts—second‑most in the league. A deep dive into his at‑bats reveals a pattern of missed opportunities: early‑count fastballs taken for strikes, chased sliders outside the zone, and several at‑bats where he fouled off hittable pitches before ultimately whiffing. Notably, his first hard‑hit ball of the season—a 100.7‑mph flyout to left—did not come until his 28th at‑bat, and his only home run came on a dead‑center fastball from Jacob de Grom in Game 11.
The underlying issue is a precipitous decline in contact quality. Raleigh’s in‑zone contact rate has slipped from 78.4% in 2024 to 65.8% this year, and his ability to square up pitches in the vertical middle of the strike zone has collapsed from a .290/.333/.695 line with 26 homers in 210 at‑bats in 2025 to a .105/.261/.263 line with a single homer in just 19 at‑bats in 2026. Correspondingly, his swing‑and‑miss rate on four‑seam and two‑seam fastballs has jumped from 25.2% to 50%. If a hitter cannot make solid contact with fastballs, offensive production inevitably suffers.
Rodriguez and Naylor display similar fastball‑miss trends. Rodriguez’s fastball miss rate has risen from 21.6% to 32.8%, while Naylor’s hard‑hit rate has dropped from 41.9% to 35.0%. Arozarena remains the relatively brighter spot, maintaining a 44.1% hard‑hit rate, though still down from his 50.6% mark last year. Collectively, the Mariners’ hard‑hit rate has fallen from 42.8% (fourth in MLB) in 2025 to 34.2% (29th) in 2026, underscoring a league‑wide lack of loud contact.
External conditions have not helped. Seattle’s April climate is notoriously hostile to hitters, and the Mariners opened the season with seven games at home, followed by two night games in Anaheim—another pitcher‑friendly venue—and a three‑game set in Texas, where Globe Life Field ranked as the top pitcher’s park in 2025. These factors depress fly‑ball distance and suppress batting averages, especially for a team reliant on power.
History offers a modest reason for optimism. Raleigh’s 2025 season was streaky; he began the year .184 with two homers through his first 13 games before erupting into power bursts, including multiple two‑homer games. Rodriguez is a well‑documented slow starter, with a career April OPS far below his August mark. Thus, the current slump may reflect early‑season adjustment rather than a permanent decline. Still, for a club that missed the playoffs by a single game in both 2023 and 2024, an extended offensive drought could prove costly as the season progresses.
The upcoming ESPN MLB Game of the Day against the Houston Astros on Saturday provides a pivotal opportunity. If Raleigh and his teammates can rediscover their timing—particularly turning early‑count fastballs into hard contact—and begin to lift the ball with authority, the Mariners may yet turn their historically strong pitching into a winning formula. Until then, the team’s early struggles serve as a stark reminder that even elite pitching cannot compensate for a lineup that cannot put the ball in play with authority.