Key Takeaways
- A Channel 13 poll shows former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s new party, Yashar, leading with 23 seats, two more than in the previous survey.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud trails closely with 22 seats, gaining one seat since last week.
- To govern, any bloc must secure at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats; the current opposition bloc (including Arab‑majority parties) is projected to win 69 seats, while the coalition bloc would hold 51 seats.
- Jewish opposition parties alone fall three seats short of a majority, meaning they would need support from the Arab parties to reach the 61‑seat threshold.
- Other notable projections: Together (Bennett‑Lapid merger) – 15 seats; Democrats (Yair Golan) – 10 seats; Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) – 10 seats; the ultra‑orthodox Shas, United Torah Judaism and far‑right Otzma Yehudit each – 8 seats; Religious Zionism – 5 seats; Arab parties Hadash‑Ta’al – 6 seats and United Arab List – 5 seats.
- Several parties are below the 3.25 % electoral threshold, including Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists (2.2 %), Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan (2.1 %), and the Balad party (1.7 %).
- Eisenkot’s rise has prompted Likud to shift its campaign focus from former premier Naftali Bennett to him, and Education Minister Yoav Kisch has hinted that Likud might consider joining a government led by Eisenkot.
- Eisenkot accused Likud of racism after a campaign video mocked his English‑speaking ability, suggesting the attack reflects fear of his growing popularity.
Summary
A recent Channel 13 poll, released Wednesday evening, projects that if a general election were held today, Gadi Eisenkot’s newly formed Yashar party would emerge as the largest faction in the next Knesset, winning 23 seats—an increase of two from the channel’s prior poll. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud follows closely with 22 seats, having gained one seat since the previous survey. Under Israel’s electoral system, a party must surpass the 3.25 % vote threshold to earn Knesset representation, and a governing coalition requires a majority of 61 out of 120 seats.
While Yashar’s lead marks the first time Eisenkot has overtaken Netanyahu in the polls, the poll also reveals that the Jewish opposition parties collectively remain three seats shy of a governing majority. The opposition bloc—including the two Arab‑majority parties—is projected to secure 69 seats, whereas the current coalition parties would hold only 51 seats. Consequently, any path to a 61‑seat government would necessitate cooperation between Jewish opposition groups and the Arab parties, which together are expected to contribute 11 seats (Hadash‑Ta’al 6 and United Arab List 5).
Beyond the top two contenders, the poll forecasts a fragmented parliament. The centrist Together party, formed by the merger of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s faction with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, is slated to win 15 seats. The center‑left Democrats, led by former deputy IDF chief Yair Golan, and the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, are each projected to capture 10 seats. Among the parties presently in the governing coalition, the ultra‑orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as the far‑right Otzma Yehudit (led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir), are each expected to obtain 8 seats. Religious Zionism, headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would secure 5 seats.
Several smaller parties fall short of the electoral threshold and would thus fail to enter the Knesset. The Reservists’ list, co‑headed by Yoaz Hendel and former Kahol Lavan MK Chili Tropper, is projected to receive only 2.2 % of the vote. Benny Gantz’s once‑dominant Kahol Lavan party is predicted to collapse to a mere 2.1 %, while the Palestinian nationalist Balad party would garner just 1.7 %. These figures underscore the volatility of Israel’s party system and the challenges facing traditional power brokers.
The poll also highlights shifting campaign dynamics. Likud officials have redirected their attack focus from Bennett to Eisenkot, reflecting the latter’s rapid ascent in public opinion. Education Minister Yoav Kisch, a Likud figure, recently suggested that his party might entertain joining a government led by Eisenkot, urging opposition parties to reconsider their boycott of the right‑wing bloc. Eisenkot himself has reacted sharply to a Likud campaign video that mocked his English‑language proficiency, accusing the party of racism and implying that the smear is motivated by fear of his rising popularity. In an interview, he questioned the practical value of Netanyahu’s famed English skills, asking where they were on October 7 and how they have helped improve Israel‑U.S. relations, which he characterized as being at a low point.
Overall, the Channel 13 survey paints a picture of a highly competitive electoral landscape in which Yashar’s surge has disrupted the traditional dominance of Likud, yet no bloc can achieve a governing majority without cross‑ideological cooperation—particularly with Arab parties. The coming weeks will likely see intensified negotiations, strategic realignments, and continued rhetoric as parties vie for the pivotal seats needed to form Israel’s next government.