Key Takeaways
- The 2026 MLB season got off to a chaotic start, with several 2025 playoff teams (Blue Jays, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox) under .500 and the Mets on an 11‑game losing streak.
- Despite the early volatility, teams are already eyeing the July 31 trade deadline, targeting bullpen help, outfield depth, infield upgrades, and pitching prospects.
- Each club has at least one notable player who could be moved: veterans with team‑control options (e.g., Luis Severino, Erick Fedde, Bryan Abreu), pending free agents (e.g., Jarren Duran, Andrew Miller, Joey Gallo), and high‑upside prospects (e.g., Jefferson Rojas, Joey Wentz, Riley O’Brien).
- “If‑all‑goes‑wrong” candidates—stars whose struggles could make them available—include Trevor Rogers (Red Sox), Sonny Gray (Red Sox), Freddy Peralta (Mets), Logan Gilbert (Mariners), Yandy Diaz (Rays), and Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays).
- Clubs with strong farm systems (Athletics, Braves, Twins, Brewers) are more likely to deal prospects for short‑term help, while those thin on depth (Marlins, Padres, Giants) will seek major‑league‑ready players in return.
- Trade value hinges on performance metrics (road ERA, strikeout rates, OBP), contract status (options, mutual/buyout clauses), and positional needs identified early in the season.
The 2026 season began with unexpected turbulence. Teams that were expected to contend—Toronto, Seattle, Philadelphia, Boston—are each below .500, and the New York Mets have lost 11 straight games, their worst streak since 2004. Those poor starts have produced some of the worst run differentials in the league, reminding everyone that the standings at the August 3 trade deadline remain highly unpredictable. Amid the chaos, front offices are already scouting potential deadline moves, focusing on players who could address bullpen woes, outfield gaps, infield production, or provide future pitching depth.
American League West – The Oakland Athletics, despite a shaky start, view their pitching staff as a possible trade chip. Luis Severino, whose road ERA (3.02) far exceeds his Sacramento mark (6.01), carries a $22 million player option for 2027 that he may exercise, but his ability to miss bats on the road makes him an attractive bullpen target for contenders.
National League West – Arizona’s bullpen remains a priority. Yilber Diaz, a hard‑throwing righty who has found the strike zone more consistently at Triple‑A Reno, fits the prototype of a reliever teams gamble on at the deadline. The Diamondbacks also continue to scout outfield help, though their immediate need is relief pitching.
National League East – Atlanta’s offense has clicked early, but the Braves could use a right‑handed‑hitting outfielder to platoon with Mike Yastrzemski in left field, especially with Jurickson Profar suspended. Owen Murphy, a former top prospect returning from Tommy John surgery, would need to regain velocity to become a viable trade piece.
American League East – Baltimore’s injury‑ravaged roster has forced the Orioles to start players they never envisioned in the middle of the order. Upper‑level starting‑prospects such as Trey Gibson, Nestor German, and Levi Wells at Triple‑A (plus Luis De Leon at Double‑A) could be packaged for pitching help if the injury malaise continues.
American League Central – Boston’s outfield logjam (four outfielders for three spots) and struggling infield have put Jarren Duran on the trade block. Duran remains under team control through 2028, but his recent frustration (a heckler incident) and poor hitting have lowered his value; if the Sox continue to falter, they may also consider moving veteran Sonny Gray, whose strikeout rate has plummeted from 26.7% in 2025 to 12.5% this season.
National League Central – Chicago’s prospect pipeline is deep, but the Cubs’ infield is blocked by long‑term contracts for Swanson, Hoerner, and Bregman. Shortstop prospect Jefferson Rojas, despite being blocked, could be dealt for a needed arm, especially with bullpen questions surrounding Cade Horton.
American League West (continued) – The White Sox, already looking to shed salary, have several pending free agents—Erick Fedde, Sean Newcomb, Reese McGuire, and Austin Hays—that could be moved for prospects. Fedde, who attracted interest in a 2024 three‑team deal, remains the most appealing piece.
National League West – Cincinnati’s offense leans heavily on Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz, leaving the outfield and DH spots thin. Noelvi Marte, after a rough start (3‑for‑29) and a demotion to Triple‑A, could be a change‑of‑scenery candidate if the Reds decide he needs a fresh environment.
National League East (continued) – Cleveland’s Guardians remain cautious about dealing prospects, but they could move lower‑rated players such as Jaison Chourio (the younger brother of Jackson) for immediate help. Chourio, back in High‑A after a wrist injury, shows improved plate discipline but still lacks power.
American League Central (continued) – Detroit’s rotation has been hampered by injuries to Verlander and Melton; second‑baseman Max Anderson can mash left‑handed pitching but needs to improve his glove to become more attractive.
National League West (continued) – Houston’s bullpen depth is a concern if Hunter Brown misses time. Bryan Abreu, a former elite reliever whose strikeout ability has waned (four homers in seven innings), could be moved if he rediscovers his earlier form.
American League West (continued) – Kansas City, should it fall out of contention, has several free agents—Kris Bubic, Matt Strahm, John Schreiber, Jonathan India, Starling Marte, and Lane Thomas—who could become trade chips. Bubic’s 2.55 ERA and All‑Star appearance last year make him the most valuable of the group.
National League East (continued) – The Angels, despite entertaining moments from Trout and Ohtani, have thin pitching and a weak bench. Jorge Soler, a pending free agent with power, could be moved if Los Angeles decides to sell.
National League West (continued) – Los Angeles’ roster is stacked, but outfield prospect Ryan Ward, who recently debuted with two hits and an RBI, could be dealt simply to give him a regular role elsewhere.
National League East (continued) – Miami’s Alcantara has emerged as a valuable trade chip thanks to a strong start and a $21 million club option for 2027; the Marlins would likely seek major‑league‑ready prospects in return.
National League Central (continued) – Milwaukee’s deep farm system allows them to be selective, but they could move a pitcher like Andrew Fischer (currently at third base in the minors) if they need infield help.
American League Central (continued) – Minnesota’s Ryan Joe Ryan remains under team control through 2027 and, despite a strong start, could be moved if the Twins decide to reset payroll.
National League East (continued) – New York’s bullpen is a clear need; Ben Hess, a first‑round pick holding batters to a .177 average in 2025, is buried behind other relievers but could be packaged for a prospect.
National League East (continued) – Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm, heading into free agency and embroiled in a off‑field lawsuit, could be traded to clear room for top prospect Aidan Miller should he heal.
National League East (continued) – Pittsburgh’s Hunter Barco, a left‑y starter prospect who began the year in the bullpen, is viewed as a potential No. 4/5 starter that contenders often seek at the deadline.
National League West (continued) – San Diego’s thin rotation could free Adrian Morejon, a free‑agent lefty who was an All‑Team reliever in 2025, if the Padres opt to flip him for a starter or hitter.
National League West (continued) – San Francisco’s overpaid, underproducing roster makes Robbie Ray (pending free agent, $25 million salary) and Luis Arraez obvious trade candidates if the Giants’ struggles persist.
American League West (continued) – Seattle’s chronic inability to hit left‑handers (.180/.268/.278 versus southpaws) creates a clear platoon need. Dominic Canzone, a right‑handed outfielder, is the most likely piece to be moved for a left‑handed bat of equal value.
National League Central (continued) – St. Louis, after acquiring Dustin May on a one‑year deal with an eye toward flipping him, could instead deal reliever Riley O’Brien, whose 98 mph sinker/sweeper/slider repertoire has made him an elite closer, for a premium prospect.
American League East (continued) – Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez, earning $9 million with a $20 million mutual option for 2027, is a prime trade piece; the Rays would rather avoid the option or the $4 million buyout and would gladly move him for prospects.
National League East (continued) – Texas, should they stay in the race, could consider moving right‑hander Jose Corniell, a talented but injury‑prone arm, to improve the rotation or bullpen.
American League East (continued) – Toronto’s early‑season injuries have exposed a need for more pitching depth. Prospect Jake Bloss, who had Tommy John surgery last year and is still awaiting a return, could be a high‑upside gamble for another club.
National League East (continued) – Washington’s Nationals, despite surprisingly good run production, lack front‑line starters. Zack Littell, a former Ray and Red with a $3 million salary and a $12 million mutual option for 2027, can eat innings and provide Rotation depth for a contender.
Overall, the early season’s inconsistencies have created a fluid market: clubs with surplus pitching or prospects are looking to deal for immediate help, while teams struggling offensively or defensively are targeting players who can fill specific gaps—most often bullpen arms, outfield depth, or infield production—before the July 31 deadline. The “if‑all‑goes‑wrong” list underscores that even stars could become available if their teams’ seasons continue to deteriorate, adding another layer of uncertainty to what promises to be an eventful trade period.