Key Takeaways
- Ben Kohles opened the 2026 3M Open with a 9‑under‑par 62, hitting 12/14 fairways and 17/18 greens and setting up a near‑gimme eagle on the 18th.
- Despite the impressive start, Kohles is viewed by many as a “fade” candidate for the next round because his first‑round surge is historically hard to repeat.
- Michael Brennan posted a solid 6‑under‑par 66, ranking second in the field for ball‑striking and gaining +5.55 strokes off the tee and with his irons; his putting showed early improvement (+0.49 strokes).
- Brennan’s best chances lie in a Top‑20 finish, which offers value given his historical success on driver‑friendly courses and recent signs of a steadier putter.
- Rico Hoey leads Mackenzie Hughes by four strokes in a head‑to‑head matchup (‑440 odds), but Hoey’s tendency to start strong then fade makes him a risky pick; he has lost strokes on the putting green in each of his last four starts.
- Hughes, while not an elite ball‑striker, relies on a hot putter to stay competitive; his recent Top‑10s have been putter‑driven, offering a more stable alternative to Hoey’s volatility.
- The betting landscape favors the Top‑20 line for Brennan (value despite a low Top‑20 conversion rate) and suggests looking at matchups such as Jake Knapp vs. Keith Mitchell (‑108) for a less volatile play.
The opening round of the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities got off to a sensational start when Ben Kohles fired a 9‑under‑par 62. Kohles’ round was the textbook definition of “boring good golf”: he found 12 of 14 fairways, hit 17 of 18 greens, and stuck an approach from beyond 240 feet to inside 10 feet on the 18th hole, leaving himself a tap‑in eagle. The performance vaulted him to a two‑stroke lead over Emiliano Grillo, Jackson Koivun, and Gary Woodland, and left roughly 25 players within five shots of the lead. Notably, world‑number‑one Scottie Scheffler sits just three strokes back at +150 odds.
While Kohles’ round was impressive, many observers—including the author—are instinctively inclined to “fade” him for the next day. The reasoning is purely anecdotal: when a golfer grabs the first‑round lead with a score near 60, sustaining that level of excellence over consecutive rounds is uncommon. Kohles fits the classic profile of a player who can explode early but struggle to maintain that momentum, making him a prime candidate for a regression bet.
Michael Brennan also turned in a strong opening card, shooting 6‑under‑par 66. His round was highlighted by elite ball‑striking—he ranked second in the field for gaining strokes off the tee and with his irons (+5.55 strokes total). Brennan’s approach play was crisp, and the only area where he relinquished strokes was around the green. Importantly, his putting showed a glimmer of improvement, gaining +0.49 strokes on the day. If he can keep the putter steady, Brennan’s driver‑friendly game could carry him into the Top 10, or even give him a shot at victory.
From a betting perspective, Brennan’s Top‑20 line presents value despite his modest historical conversion rate (5.3 % Top‑20 finishes in 19 starts this season). The value stems from his proven success on courses that reward long, accurate drivers—think the Bank of Utah Championship and the Butterfield Bermuda Championship—and from recent signs that his putting woes may be easing. The author suggests that, rather than chasing a risky Top‑5 or Top‑10 wager, the Top‑20 offers a more sensible risk‑reward balance for Brennan.
In the head‑to‑head matchup, Rico Hoey holds a four‑stroke lead over Mackenzie Hughes, translating to ‑440 odds for Hoey to win the 72‑hole duel. However, Hoey’s recent trend raises red flags: he has begun tournaments strong, gaining strokes in the opening round, only to falter dramatically in the subsequent rounds. At the Corales Puntacana Championship, John Deere Classic, and RBC Canadian Open, Hoey posted solid first rounds before losing ground on days two and three and ultimately missing the cut or fading badly. His putting has been especially problematic; he has lost strokes with the flat stick in each of his last four starts, and his iron play remains inconsistent.
Hughes, by contrast, may not separate himself with distance or fairway accuracy (hitting roughly 53 % of fairways), but he is a reliable putter who often converts his limited ball‑striking opportunities into birdies. His recent Top‑10 finishes—including a showing at the Charles Schwab Challenge—have been largely putter‑driven, giving him a steadier profile than Hoey’s boom‑or‑bust pattern. While Hughes is not a favorite to win outright, his consistency makes him a safer pick in matchups where volatility is a concern.
The article also touches on alternative betting angles, noting that the Top‑20 line for Brennan offers value, and suggesting a matchup play such as Jake Knapp versus Keith Mitchell (‑108) for those seeking a less volatile, albeit less exciting, wager. Overall, Round 1 set up an intriguing leaderboard with a mix of explosive early performances (Kohles), solid ball‑striking bids (Brennan), and contrasting styles in the Hoey‑Hughes duel, all of which will shape the betting landscape as the tournament progresses.