Key Takeaways
- The Seattle Mariners entered the season as AL favorites but are currently a game under .500 at the All‑Star break.
- The bulk of the team’s underperformance stems from its two projected elite hitters, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, who are delivering far less WAR than expected.
- Raleigh began the season hampered by an oblique strain, tried to play through it, and has struggled offensively since returning; his wRC+ has risen modestly but remains well below average.
- Rodríguez enjoyed a strong early offensive surge, improved defensively in June, then slumped at the plate before a concussion sidelined him; he is on pace for roughly half his projected WAR.
- The remainder of the Mariners’ lineup (position players, rotation, bullpen) has performed roughly in line with last year, giving the team an overall 100 wRC+ despite the star duo’s struggles.
- Acquisitions intended to boost depth—Brendan Donovan and Rob Refsnyder—have largely been unavailable due to injury, limiting the team’s ability to compensate for the shortfall from Raleigh and Rodríguez.
- Unless the star hitters regain form or other players step up significantly, the Mariners’ second‑half outlook remains uncertain.
The Mariners opened 2025 with high expectations. FanGraphs projected them as American League favorites, buoyed by a talented core that included two of the game’s top projected hitters: catcher Cal Raleigh and outfielder Julio Rodríguez. By the All‑Star break, however, Seattle sits just below .500, a stark contrast to the optimism that greeted Opening Day.
To diagnose where the team fell short, I broke the roster into four groups—Raleigh and Rodríguez, the remaining position players, the starting rotation, and the bullpen—and summed their 2025 WAR, 2026 projected WAR, and 2026 actual WAR (prorated through season’s end). The analysis shows that the lion’s share of the deficit comes from the star duo. Last year, Raleigh and Rodríguez combined for 15 WAR. Steamer’s projection for 2025 gave them a combined 12 WAR, but their current pace puts them on track for only about 4 WAR—a shortfall of roughly eight wins.
Cal Raleigh’s struggles are rooted in health. He began the season nursing an oblique strain that he reportedly aggravated by trying to make up for limited reps with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. Rather than rest, Raleigh attempted to “tough guy” his way through early games, eventually landing on the injured list after a prolonged hitless streak. Since his return in mid‑June, he has yet to find his timing. His pre‑injury wRC+ was a dismal 62; post‑injury it has crept up to 88, still well below league average. At this rate, Raleigh is on pace to deliver roughly one‑sixth of the WAR he was projected for.
Julio Rodríguez’s story is slightly different but equally disappointing. He opened the year with his best‑ever start at the plate, showing the power and patience that made him a perennial All‑Star candidate. Defensive lapses in early games prompted a June adjustment that saw his outfield play improve markedly. However, as his glove settled, his bat cooled. A late‑month resurgence hinted at a potential turnaround, but a painful concussion—sustained when Nolan Schanuel drilled him in the back of the head while running the bases—ended his season prematurely. Rodríguez is now on pace for about half the WAR Steamer forecasted for him.
While Raleigh and Rodríguez underperform, the rest of the Mariners’ roster has been relatively steady. The collective position‑player group, rotation, and bullpen have produced numbers comparable to 2025, yielding an overall team wRC+ of exactly 100. Individual bright spots—such as Randy Arozarena’s timely hitting, Dominic Canzone’s versatility, and Cole Young’s emerging power—have been offset by inconsistent performances from Josh Naylor, Victor Robles, and Leo Rivas, and the defensive liabilities of J.P. Crawford. In short, the supporting cast has replicated last year’s output, neither elevating nor dragging the team down dramatically.
The Mariners’ front office had hoped to bolster depth with acquisitions like Brendan Donovan and Rob Refsnyder, both earmarked to address roster imbalances and push the team into the “AL favorites” tier. Injuries have sidelined both players, rendering them largely ineffective; Refsnyder, in fact, ranks as the worst player ever acquired by Jerry Dipoto by WAR. Without these pieces, the team lacks the extra buffer needed to compensate for the shortfall from its two biggest offensive weapons.
Looking ahead, the Mariners face a clear dilemma. If Raleigh and Rodríguez can regain health and form, the team’s inherent talent could propel it back into contention. If not, the club will need other players to exceed expectations dramatically—a tall order given the current injury list and the modest production from the bench. The second half will therefore hinge on whether the stars can rediscover their elite levels or whether the supporting cast can unexpectedly elevate their performance enough to keep Seattle in the playoff conversation. Until then, the Mariners remain a team whose promise far outpaces its present reality.